Lack of majority for Parti Québécois puts any referendum in doubt, especially amid bruising trade war with Trump

The victory of the Parti Québécois in Monday’s election in Quebec might seem to bring its signature goal, of separating the French-speaking province from Canada, much closer – but Canadian unity may not be nearly as threatened as may first seem.

The PQ’s victory was both impressive and disappointing. The party added 56 seats to its roster and more than doubled its vote share compared with the 2022 election, giving it its first taste of power in 14 years. Crucially, however, it was left five seats short of a majority, making its promise to hold a referendum after Donald Trump leaves office in 2028 nearly impossible.