Category Archives: Population

Can you predict which parts of Sydney will be next to gentrify?

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Researchers have developed a model which uses changes in the socioeconomic status of an area to anticipate gentrification

One consequence of rising rent and house prices in Sydney is the further gentrification of inner suburbs, with wealthier people displacing poorer households in certain desirable areas.

These shifts in neighbourhood composition in Australia’s largest city can have negative effects on the people displaced – people losing access to their community networks and familiar surroundings, as well as more practical concerns like access to transport and health infrastructure.

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Chinese province ends ban on unmarried people having children

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Sichuan measures aim to encourage more people to have children after population fell for first time in 60 years

A Chinese province of more than 80 million people will lift restrictions on unmarried people having children and remove caps on the number of babies as part of a national drive to increase the country’s birth rate.

Sichuan’s health commission announced on Monday it would allow all people to register births with the provincial government from 15 February. It will also remove limits on the number of birth registrations for any parent.

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Japan’s ageing population poses urgent risk to society, says PM

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Fumio Kishida says country may be unable to function if birthrate does not rise

Japan’s low birthrate and ageing population pose an urgent risk to society, the country’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has said, as he pledged to address the issue by establishing a new government agency.

Birthrates are declining in many developed countries, but in Japan the issue is particularly acute because it has the world’s second highest proportion of people aged 65 and over, after the tiny state of Monaco, according to World Bank data.

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Australia on track for 2023 migration boom as arrivals dwarf Treasury forecasts, ex-official says

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Former immigration department deputy believes government has ‘significantly underestimated’ net migration

Australia is on track for net migration of more than 300,000 people this year, more than 25% higher than Treasury forecasts, due to a surge in arrivals, according to a former top immigration official.

Abul Rizvi, the former deputy secretary of the immigration department, said that Treasury forecasts of a 235,000-person annual boost to population from migration – the long term pre-pandemic average – have “significantly underestimated” net figures.

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Melbourne shrank while Queensland grew: what the pandemic did to Australia’s population

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The Victorian capital is still on track to outpace Sydney as the biggest city in Australia but Covid lockdowns slowed that growth

Melbourne’s population growth turned negative during the pandemic as people fled prolonged Covid lockdowns, while Queensland welcomed a steady stream of people moving from other states, new population data shows.

The data from the Centre for Population showed Melbourne’s rate of population growth dropped from 1.8% in 2018-19 to -1.6% in 2020-21. Both international and interstate migration to Victoria fell, with annual population growth going backwards at -0.9%.

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‘I feel at home here’: descendants of Galicia’s emigrés return to the old country

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Spain’s poor western region is welcoming back heirs of those who once left it – especially from troubled Argentina

Galicia has long been one of Spain’s poorest regions and since the mid-19th century Galicians have emigrated in their tens of thousands to seek a brighter future in the Americas. But now they’re coming back.

The Galician regional government says that returnees – the majority are Argentinians – are settling in the area at a rate of three a day. After more than 150 years of steady depopulation, in 2019 more people arrived than left, while, for the first time in its history, the reverse was true for Argentina.

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Million yen per child to leave Tokyo – Japan’s offer to families

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Government boosts incentives to lure people to ‘unfashionable’ regional areas hit by ageing, shrinking populations

Japan’s government is offering ¥1m ($7,500) per child to families who move out of greater Tokyo, in an attempt to reverse population decline in the regions.

The incentive – a dramatic rise from the previous relocation fee of ¥300,000 – will be introduced in April, according to Japanese media reports, as part of an official push to breathe life into declining towns and villages.

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Migration to Australia set to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, report finds

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Covid travel restrictions resulted in 85,000 fewer people migrating to Australia in 2020-21, the first net loss since the second world war

Australia has lost 473,000 potential migrants as a result of Covid, but net inward migration is now on track to rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 235,000 people a year, the Centre for Population has found.

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said the centre’s 2022 statement, to be released on Friday, confirmed migration was “part of the solution” to skills and labour shortages.

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Australia’s fertility rate rebounds to pre-Covid levels but Jim Chalmers issues warning on ageing population

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Federal government’s population statement forecasts births for 2021-22 will be 1.66 babies per woman

Australia’s fertility rate rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in 2020-21, according to a snapshot from the federal government’s latest population statement.

In 2020-21, the fertility rate was 1.66 babies per woman, similar to the rate recorded in 2018-19. In 2019-20, the rate had fallen to 1.61 babies per woman.

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‘Diversity is a beautiful thing’: the view from Leicester and Birmingham

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Minority ethnic people make up 59% and 51% of respective populations in UK’s first ‘super-diverse’ cities

Leicester and Birmingham have become the first “super-diverse” cities in the UK, where most people are from black, Asian or minority ethnic (BAME) backgrounds, according to the 2021 census.

A total of 59% of people in Leicester are from minority ethnic backgrounds, while 51% of Birmingham’s population are people of colour, as are 54% in Luton, according to the data. Across England and Wales, 18% of people are BAME.

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India faces deepening demographic divide as it prepares to overtake China as the world’s most populous country

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India’s entrenched north-south divide is growing as its population changes, with serious social and political consequences

The cry of a baby born in India one day next year will herald a watershed moment for the country, when the scales tip and India overtakes China as the world’s most populous nation.

Yet the story of India’s population boom is really two stories. In the north, led by just two states, the population is still rising. In the richer south, numbers are stabilising and in some areas declining. The deepening divisions between these regions mean the government must eventually grapple with a unique problem: the consequences of a baby boom and an ageing population, all inside one nation.

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UN warns against alarmism as world’s population reaches 8bn milestone

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UNFPA head urges countries to focus on helping women, children and marginalised people most vulnerable to demographic change

The world must not engage in “population alarmism” as the number of people living on Earth nears 8 billion, a senior UN official has said.

The global population is projected to reach that milestone on 15 November, with some commentators expressing worries about the impact of the growing number on a world already struggling with huge inequality, the climate crisis, and conflict-fuelled displacement and migration.

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Pupil numbers in England set to shrink by almost 1 million in 10 years

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Government forecast anticipates 12% decline, mainly due to fewer births, with surplus school places in years ahead

England’s school population is set to shrink by almost a million children over the next 10 years, according to the government’s latest data, raising the prospect of surplus places and school closures in some areas of the country in the years ahead.

Department for Education figures reveal that predicted pupil numbers, already in marked decline according to earlier modelling, have had to be revised down further in line with projections of fewer births than expected.

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England and Wales population rises to record 59.5 million

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Census figure is up 3.5m on 2011, with more over-65s than under-15s, and gives UK population of 67m

The population of England and Wales has hit a historic high of 59,597,300, according to the first results from the 2021 census, with a 20% surge in the number of people aged 65 and over in the last decade.

The count was based on questionnaires filled out by households on Sunday 21 March 2021 and is an 6.3% increase on the 2011 figure of 56,075,912 – an extra 3.5 million people.

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Census 2021: Australia’s millennial generation is overtaking baby boomers, new ABS data shows

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Data released on Tuesday shows a snapshot of the nation during Covid-19 and reveals insights into religion, identity and how Australians live

New data released on Tuesday from the latest census shows that Australia’s millennial generation is becoming the nation’s largest, displacing the postwar baby boomers.

Both demographic groups comprise 5.4 million people but the 2021 statistics reflect a diminishing number of “boomers” compared with the 2016 survey.

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‘Stop nagging!’: why China’s generation Z is resisting marriage and babies

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Young Chinese women want to get educated and prioritise their careers, a trend that has alarmed the authorities battling a demographic crisis

Early this month, China’s state news agency Xinhua posted a video reminding young Chinese men born in the year 2000 that they are now finally eligible to get married. “Post 00s have reached legal marriage age,” it declared.

The hashtag swiftly popped up in the “top-searched list” of Weibo hot topics, but many read it as the government’s attempt to put pressure on them. “Who dares to get married these days? Don’t we need to make money?” one questioned. “Stop nagging me!” said another.

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By 2050, a quarter of the world’s people will be African – this will shape our future | Edward Paice

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Africa’s unprecedented population growth will impact geopolitics, global trade, migration and almost every aspect of life. It’s time for a reimagining of the continent

In 2022 the world’s population will pass 8 billion. It has increased by a third in just two decades. By 2050, there will be about 9.5 billion of us on the planet, according to respected demographers. This makes recent comments by Elon Musk baffling. According to him, “the low birthrate and the rapidly declining birthrate” is “one of the biggest risks to civilisation”.

Fertility rates in Europe, North America and east Asia are generally below 2.1 births per woman, the level at which populations remain stable at constant mortality rates. The trajectory in some countries is particularly arresting. The birthrate in Italy is the lowest it has ever been in the country’s history. South Korea’s fertility rate has been stuck below one birth per woman for decades despite an estimated $120bn (£90bn) being spent on initiatives aimed at raising it. Japan started the century with 128 million citizens but is on course to have only 106 million by 2050. China’s population will peak at 1.45 billion in 2030, but if it proves unable to raise its fertility rate, the world’s most populous country could end the century with fewer than 600 million inhabitants. This is the “big risk” alluded to by Musk. The trouble is, his statement seems to imply that “civilisation” does not include Africa.

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The Guardian view on China’s baby bust: let people choose | Editorial

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Beijing faces a demographic timebomb, with population growth at its lowest for six decades

“Of all things in the world, people are the most precious,” Mao Zedong said soon after taking power, believing China needed more soldiers and workers. The advent of peace saw the population rocket from 540 million to 969 million over the next three decades. Authorities abruptly switched to curbing births and brutally implementing the “one-child” policy.

These days, most Chinese couples are curtailing their families – or going without – by choice. The population now stands at 1.4 billion; a sixth of the global total. But last year’s birthrate was the lowest since 1949, and the rate of population growth the lowest since the Great Famine six decades ago. The pandemic has seen dramatic drops in births in many places. But in China, the shift is part of a pronounced long-term trend. Several experts believe that last year marked the population peak.

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China: editorial says Communist party members must have three children

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Article that says ‘no party member should use any excuse’ to have only one or two children goes viral then disappears

An editorial in a Chinese state-run news website has suggested Communist party members are obliged to have three children for the good of the country, as Beijing seeks to address plummeting birthrates.

The editorial, which was first published last month, went viral this week and drew sharp reaction from Chinese internet users, with millions of shares, views and comments. As the wave of reaction grew, the original article disappeared from the website.

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Chinese birthrate falls to lowest since 1978

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Official statistics show 8.5 births per 1,000 people in 2020, the first time under 10 in decades

China’s birthrate has plummeted to its lowest level since 1978 as the government struggles to stave off a looming demographic crisis.

Data released by the country’s national bureau of statistics shows there were 8.5 births per 1,000 people in 2020, the first time in decades that the figure has fallen below 10. The statistical yearbook, released at the weekend, said the natural rate of population growth – taking in births and deaths – was at a new low of 1.45.

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