In today’s newsletter: Lebanon’s border villages reduced to rubble and 150,000 people displaced in tit-for-tat strikes that commentators say risk turning into a wider conflict

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Good morning. “Nobody wants a war – not Israel, not Hezbollah, not Iran,” military historian Prof Danny Orbach told the Guardian last week. “But it’s very difficult to see how you can solve the situation without one.”

That is the frightening ratchet that has been operating on the border between Lebanon and Israel since the 7 October attacks, where Israel is engaged in tit-for-tat strikes with Hezbollah that have left hundreds of people dead and 150,000 displaced.

UK politics | Keir Starmer has suspended seven MPs from the Labour party in an unprecedented response to an early rebellion supporting an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit limit. The move to suspend MPs from the party’s left, including the former shadow chancellor John McDonnell, drew criticism from some MPs who voted with the government.

Health | The births of babies to black mothers are almost twice as likely to be investigated for potential NHS safety failings, Guardian research has found, in a shocking disparity that has been labelled a “national disgrace”. The head of the Royal College of Midwives (RCM) said the issue was “purely down to institutional racism”.

US news | The director of the US secret service has resigned over security lapses that enabled the assassination attempt against Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. Kimberly Cheatle quit a day after a contentious House hearing where members of both parties said that she had failed to answer basic questions about a “stunning operational failure”.

Leeds | Roma children who were taken into care, sparking unrest in Leeds last week, have been returned to their extended family. Police and social services removed the four children from a house in Harehills on Thursday to prevent them being taken abroad in breach of a court order.

Monarchy | King Charles is set for a huge £45m pay rise with an increase of more than 50% in his official annual income, official accounts reveal. Profits of £1.1bn from the crown estate mean the sovereign grant, which supports the official duties of the royal family, will rise from £86m in 2024-25 to £132m in 2025-26.

Both sides would prefer to end the fighting so that civilians can return home, but are entangled in a cycle of mutual escalation. ‘What’s going on now is an attrition war,’ says Khalil Helou, a retired Lebanese general. ‘One that we are losing, as Lebanon. And Hezbollah is losing. And Israel is losing.’

Michael Safi travels to southern Lebanon where Hezbollah is trading strikes with Israeli forces and one misstep could result in all-out conflict

Travelling through a village called Kafr Kila in the mountains of southern Lebanon, all Michael Safi could see was destroyed buildings. Twisted wires and rubble littered the landscape and a solitary yellow Hezbollah flag fluttered in the rubble.

It is dangerous territory, patrolled by the UN’s peacekeeping force. Airstrikes from Israeli forces happen every few days and are met with volleys of Hezbollah rockets across the border. Ever since the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has stepped up its own conflict with Israel. The tit-for-tat attacks are calculated – with neither side wanting to fully escalate. But there is a growing tension and a fear that one misstep could result in all-out war. As Safi tours the country, he finds a population weary of war but also resilient and defiant.

As a terrorist attack, a harsh response and an ensuing invasion strike familiar chords, analysts look for lessons from the war of 42 years ago

It started with a terrorist attack, which triggered massive military retaliation, the siege of a city, the deaths of thousands of civilians and devastation and global outrage. If the military operation was a success in tactical terms, it led to strategic failures that scarred the nation and the region for decades to come.

Sounds familiar? Forty-two years later, as a new conflict looms on Israel’s northern borders, historians, analysts and veterans of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon are looking to that now-distant war for lessons and warnings.