Category Archives: El Niño southern oscillation

Australia may face a summer of heatwaves, even without El Niño

Posted on by

Bureau of Meterology says most of the country is likely to be warmer than average, but El Niño pattern is hard to predict with certainty

Australians should prepare for a summer of heatwaves even if an El Niño does not take hold this year, a senior climate scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology has said.

Dr Karl Braganza, the bureau’s national manager for climate services, said this year “could be significant in terms of heatwaves and fires”, but was unlikely to repeat the horrors of the 2019-20 black summer bushfires.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

Sydney’s unseasonably warm weather set to stay as BoM continues ‘El Niño’ watch

Posted on by

The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast expects more warm weather for the east coast, with Sydney hitting a top of 23C on Saturday

Sydney is expected to hit 23C on Saturday, with the unseasonably warm weather forecast to continue for the rest of the winter.

Hugh McDowell, a meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the bureau’s long-range forecast showed Sydney could expect more unseasonable temperatures.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

Ocean temperatures around Australia 0.5C above June average as UN declares an El Niño

Posted on by

World Meteorological Organization says weather pattern is in place, which for Australia increases risk of drought, heatwaves, bushfires and coral bleaching

Ocean temperatures around Australia last month were 0.5C above average, as the UN’s weather agency declared the world was now in an El Niño.

El Niño events influence weather extremes around the globe and for Australia increase the risk of drought, heatwaves, bushfires and coral bleaching.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

Will El Niño on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?

Posted on by

Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather

“Very unusual”, “worrying”, “terrifying”, and “bonkers”; the reactions of veteran scientists to the sharp increase in north Atlantic surface temperatures over the past three months raises the question of whether the world’s climate has entered a more erratic and dangerous phase with the onset of an El Niño event on top of human-made global heating.

Since April, the warming appears to have entered a new trajectory. Meanwhile the area of global sea ice has dropped by more than 1 million sq km below the previous low.

Continue reading...

Bureau of Meteorology puts Australia on ‘El Niño alert’

Posted on by

Update warns there is a 70% chance of the climate system developing before the end of this year, raising the risk of heatwaves and bushfires

The Bureau of Meteorology has placed Australia on “El Niño alert”, warning there is now a 70% chance of the climate system developing before the end of this year.

El Niño tends to reduce rainfall and push up daytime temperatures in winter and spring, increasing the risk of bushfires, heatwaves and coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

El Niño extremely likely to impact Australian summer, US scientists predict

Posted on by

Experts warn strong vegetation growth during La Niñas could result in fuel for fires, as up to 90% chance of El Niño predicted

Eastern Australia looks set for a drier winter and spring as a US federal agency predicts an “extremely high likelihood” of an El Niño developing later in the year.

According to the US Climate Prediction Center, a weak El Niño is likely and there is an 80% chance of a moderate El Niño in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance it will persist into our summer.

Continue reading...

Heavy falls and possible thunderstorms could bring up to 120mm of rain for parts of coastal NSW

Posted on by

Scattered showers and storms over the weekend expected to raise rainfall totals with potential for strong winds around Illawarra to Eden coasts

Parts of coastal New South Wales could receive up to 120mm of rain over the weekend with heavy falls expected from late Saturday.

The rainfall comes 10 days after Sydney broke a century-old temperature record, with 184 days of temperatures exceeding 20C.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

Scientists discover pristine deep-sea Galápagos reef ‘teeming with life’

Posted on by

Diving to 600m, researchers find reefs full of octopus, lobster and fish, raising hopes for corals’ survival amid rising sea temperatures

Scientists operating a submersible have discovered deep-sea coral reefs in pristine condition in a previously unexplored part of the Galápagos marine reserve.

Diving to depths of 600 metres (1,970ft), to the summit of a previously unmapped seamount in the central part of the archipelago, the scientists witnessed a breathtaking mix of deep marine life. This has raised hopes that healthy reefs can still thrive at a time when coral is in crisis due to record sea surface temperatures and ocean acidification. It also showed the effectiveness of conservation actions and effective management, they said.

Continue reading...

Climate models warn of possible ‘Super El Nino’ before end of year

Posted on by

Climate researchers say magnitude of predicted weather event uncertain but if an extreme El Niño occurs ‘we’ll need to buckle up’

Climate models around the globe continue to warn of a potential El Niño developing later this year – a pattern of ocean warming in the Pacific that can increase the risk of catastrophic weather events around the globe.

Some models are raising the possibility later this year of an extreme, or “Super El Niño”, that is marked by very high temperatures in a central region of the Pacific around the equator.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

Global heating to drive stronger La Niña and El Niño events by 2030, researchers say

Posted on by

New modelling suggests climate change-driven variability will be detectable decades earlier than previously expected

Stronger La Niña and El Niño events due to global heating will be detectable in the eastern Pacific Ocean by 2030, decades earlier than previously expected, new modelling suggests.

Researchers have analysed 70 years of reliable sea surface temperature records in the Pacific Ocean to model changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) under current projections of global heating.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup

Continue reading...

Super corals: the race to save the world’s reefs from the climate crisis – in pictures

Posted on by

Few corals are safe from warming oceans, a new study warns, but studies are finding surprisingly hardy corals, natural sunscreens and how coral ‘IVF’ can regrow reefs

Continue reading...

Climate crisis: 2020 was joint hottest year ever recorded

Posted on by

Global heating continued unabated despite Covid lockdowns, with record Arctic wildfires and Atlantic tropical storms

The climate crisis continued unabated in 2020, with the the joint highest global temperatures on record, alarming heat and record wildfires in the Arctic, and a record 29 tropical storms in the Atlantic.

Despite a 7% fall in fossil fuel burning due to coronavirus lockdowns, heat-trapping carbon dioxide continued to build up in the atmosphere, also setting a new record. The average surface temperature across the planet in 2020 was 1.25C higher than in the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900, dangerously close to the 1.5C target set by the world’s nations to avoid the worst impacts.

Continue reading...

Zimbabwe on verge of ‘manmade starvation’, warns UN envoy

Posted on by

Food shortages affecting 60% of country’s population threaten to make political instability worse, says UN expert

Zimbabwe is on the brink of manmade starvation with close to 60% of the population now food insecure, a UN envoy has said.

Hilal Elver, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, said the situation was likely to escalate political instability in the southern African nation. After an 11-day visit to parts of the country worst hit by the El Niño-induced drought, Elver said widespread food insecurity was being exacerbated by hyperinflation.

Continue reading...

‘Indian El Niño’ behind east Africa flooding

Posted on by

Irregularity known as Indian Ocean dipole bringing weather extremes across region

Twenty years ago in 1999 a new weather pattern was described for the first time. Now it has shifted up a gear and is causing devastation across east Africa.

The Indian Ocean dipole, sometimes called the Indian El Niño, is an irregular oscillation in which the surface temperature of the sea is alternatively greater in the ocean’s west and its east. The positive phase, when it is warmer in the west, sees more rain in the west and greater chance of drought in the east. These are reversed in a negative phase.

Continue reading...