Win or lose, supreme court decision on Rwanda policy will be pivotal for Tories

A victory for the immigration and asylum policy on Wednesday will come with headaches, but a defeat could split the Conservative party

Wednesday marks a potentially pivotal moment in the government’s fortunes when the supreme court rules whether its plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda is lawful.

The decision could have significant implications not just for immigration and asylum policy, but also for the future direction of Rishi Sunak’s government, and the Conservative party more widely. Here is what could follow from a government win or loss.

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Police say Suella Braverman’s claims of force’s bias ‘a factor’ in attacks on them

Officers believe claims made before Saturday’s pro-Palestinian march stoked far-right violence

Suella Braverman’s claims of police bias in the days leading up to Saturday’s pro-Palestinian march were a significant factor in “sustained” far-right attacks on members of the force, officers believe.

One police source with close knowledge of the weekend’s events said the intensity of attacks by far-right supporters on police officers in central London was “unprecedented”. Police believe some were in possession of and high on cocaine.

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Suella Braverman calls for ‘further action’ against pro-Palestine marches

Home secretary’s rhetoric is dividing Conservative MPs, who are frustrated that Rishi Sunak has not sacked her

Suella Braverman has demanded “further action” against pro-Palestine marches, as centrist Conservative MPs expressed despair at Rishi Sunak’s delay in sacking his rogue home secretary.

One senior backbencher predicted “a lot of noise” from angry colleagues when they return to parliament on Monday, with no signs of imminent action from Sunak after a series of controversies involving Braverman.

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Labour seen as more divided by voters after tension over conflict in Gaza

The latest Opinium poll shows Keir Starmer’s personal rating has slumped but the Tories are also suffering from internal divisions

Labour is perceived by voters as far more divided in the wake of party splits over the conflict in Israel and Gaza, amid concerns that there may be further frontbench resignations on the issue this week.

Keir Starmer has also taken a hit, with the latest Opinium poll for the Observer showing a slump in the proportion of voters who regard him as a strong leader compared with a month ago.

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London’s pro-Palestine march live: 126 people arrested as police highlight ‘deeply concerning’ rightwing violence – as it happened

Met assistant commissioner Matt Twist says nine officers were injured while preventing a violent crowd reaching the Cenotaph

Scores of people have gathered in Hyde Park for a “stewards’ meeting” before the march, the PA Media agency reports.

They are all wearing hi-vis jackets, while many have also donned keffiyehs, Palestinian scarves.

Armistice Day is a moment of solemn national reflection in remembrance of those who have given their lives in service of our country. It’s important that people can use our rail network to safely travel, free from intimidation.

That’s why I have granted consent for the British Transport Police to make orders under section 14A of the Public Order Act 1986 prohibiting planned protests at various London stations today, meaning anyone taking part will be subject to arrest.

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Pro-Palestine protesters assemble in London as police jostle with far-right groups

Organisers say rally on Armistice Day could be one of the largest political marches in British history

Protesters have begun assembling for a pro-Palestinian rally in London that is expected to draw hundreds of thousands on Saturday, while police have jostled with far-right groups attempting to reach the Cenotaph.

Organisers say that the pro-Palestine march, which has been the backdrop to a political row over Suella Braverman’s public criticism of the policing of protests, could be one of the biggest political marches in British history.

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Suella Braverman’s fate remains unclear as No 10 says internal inquiry ongoing – as it happpened

This live blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

According to Sky’s Beth Rigby, some ministers think No 10 would be wrong to wait until the middle of next week before deciding Suella Braverman’s fate.

Senior minister: “We can’t continue like this” “No 10 may want to wait & see what happens at w/end & & poss wait for Supreme Court on Weds [Rwanda decision] But relationship with police is v damaged. Credibility generally is low. Delay makes the govt look weak unfortunately”

The home secretary’s aides submitted a draft of the article to No 10 on Wednesday. Officials came back that evening with a series of amendments, toning down some of the most incendiary claims.

Braverman accepted some of the amendments, including removing a warning to the police not to take a “soft touch” approach at the Armistice Day protest, along with claims that there was “ample evidence” that senior police officers were biased. She also removed a direct reference to Sunak at No 10’s request. But she rejected further changes, including suggestions that she remove the comparison to rallies in Northern Ireland during the Troubles.

One minister familiar with No 10’s thinking said that Sunak’s team would wait until after the Supreme Court publishes its judgment. They said: “The bigger problem is the fact that we’ve got the Rwanda ruling next Wednesday. Surely people will want that to be finished before moving forward. You’d want to know the outcome of that before deciding what kind of home secretary you want going forward.”

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How pro-Palestinian marches have caused crises for Tories and Labour

While Sunak deals with Braverman’s claims against protesters and police, Starmer faces pressure to support Gaza ceasefire

At midday on Saturday, hundreds of thousands of people will gather outside Hyde Park in London for what organisers say will be the biggest pro-Palestinian march since the Israel-Hamas war broke out just over a month ago.

The marchers will hope their calls for a ceasefire in Gaza put pressure on the British government to do the same. But even before they have taken a step, the protesters have triggered political crises for both of Britain’s largest parties, leaving the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, looking weaker than he has for months and the home secretary, Suella Braverman, facing the sack.

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Rishi Sunak under pressure to sack Suella Braverman over Met criticism

Opposition parties call for removal of home secretary as inquiries launched into article on pro-Palestine march

Rishi Sunak is under growing pressure to sack Suella Braverman after she ignored Downing Street advice and published an explosive article accusing the Metropolitan police of political bias.

Amid claims that the prime minister is too weak to remove the home secretary, ministers joined with senior police officers in accusing Braverman of stoking “hatred and division” before a pro-Palestinian march on Saturday.

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Rishi Sunak says pro-Palestine march on Saturday is ‘proof of UK’s commitment to freedom’ – as it happened

Prime minister says he finds prospect of march ‘disrespectful’ but says freedom includes ‘right to peacefully protest’

Keith is only now asking about Covid. All the questions so far have been about process.

Sedwill says, when concerns about Covid arose, he did not agree to a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee taking place immediately. He wanted to ensure that the meeting was prepared for. And he was concerned that having a Cobra meeting might alarm people.

I felt that a Cobra which might have been convened primarily for communications purposes wasn’t wise. Two days later I was advised there was a genuine cross-government basis for it and I agreed.

May we be plain please as to what you mean by communications purposes. Were you concerned that the Cobra was being called by the DHSC [the Department of Health and Social Care] for presentation purposes, that is to say to make a splash about the role of DHSC, perhaps its secretary of state [Matt Hancock], and that’s why you initially hesitated.

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Wednesday briefing: Should a pro-Palestine march on Armistice Day be banned?

In today’s newsletter: The Metropolitan police has resisted calls to ban a march in support of a ceasefire in Gaza – but that may not be the end of the story

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Good morning. Claims that a pro-Palestine march planned in London for Armistice Day this weekend poses a threat to the Cenotaph just won’t go away. Yesterday, the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, said that even those with no malicious intent risked supporting extremists at “an extremely important time in our calendar”, and called for the march to be postponed. “The police must stop any odious behaviour at the Cenotaph,” the Conservative MP James Sunderland said. “But far better for the government to ensure that no protest goes near it in the first place.”

Sunderland’s demand may be perplexing to the protesters: the march on Saturday is intended to run from Hyde Park to the US embassy, nowhere near the war memorial in Whitehall.

Israel-Hamas war | Israeli forces are “in the heart of Gaza City”, Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant said, as Palestinian families waving white flags streamed away from the capital on Tuesday. Meanwhile, after Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would take indefinite “security responsibility” for the territory, the White House said that it would oppose any reoccupation of Gaza. For the latest, head to the live blog.

Fossil fuels | The world’s fossil fuel producers are planning expansions that would blow the planet’s carbon budget twice over, a UN report has found. Petrostates’ plans would lead to 460% more coal production, 83% more gas, and 29% more oil in 2030 than would be possible under the internationally agreed 1.5C target, the report said.

Vaping | UK ministers are considering a new tax on vapes in a significant expansion of moves to create a “smoke-free generation” that also includes the gradual introduction of a total ban on smoking for children. The move to tax vapes was one of the few surprise measures in a king’s speech that appeared largely designed to create dividing lines with Labour. Read a summary of measures in the bill.

Covid inquiry | The government body set up to coordinate Covid policy had no warning about Rishi Sunak’s “eat out to help out” scheme and felt “blindsided” by the Treasury over it, the inquiry into the pandemic has been told.

Childcare | Poorer families are being “locked out” of expanded free nursery hours, experts have warned, as Guardian analysis reveals that the number of not-for-profit nurseries in England’s most-deprived areas has fallen sharply. Close to a third of not-for-profit nurseries closed their doors or were taken over by private companies, including private equity firms, in the poorest parts of the country from 2018-2022.

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Keir Starmer dismisses king’s speech as ‘exercise in economic miserabilism’ – politics live

Labour party leader criticises speech as ‘admission that government has no faith in Britain’s ability to avert decline’

Here is Ben Quinn’s guide to what will be in the king’s speech.

In a statement about the king’s speech issued overnight, Keir Starmer said:

Britain is crying out for the long-term change that harnesses the ambition of our young people, the innovative drive of our businesses, and the ordinary hope and optimism that exists around every kitchen table.

A government acting in the national interest would deliver a big build programme to kickstart growth in every region and begin to turn around 13 years of decline with a plan for a decade of national renewal.

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Revealed: plan to brand anyone ‘undermining’ UK as extremist

Leaked documents spark furious backlash from groups who fear freedom of expression could be suppressed

Government officials have drawn up deeply controversial proposals to broaden the definition of extremism to include anyone who “undermines” the country’s institutions and its values, according to documents seen by the Observer.

The new definition, prepared by civil servants working for cabinet minister Michael Gove, is fiercely opposed by a cohort of officials who fear legitimate groups and individuals will be branded extremists.

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Fury as Braverman depicts homelessness as a ‘lifestyle choice’

Senior Conservative says home secretary should not discuss complex issue in such terms and advised her to use ‘wiser’ language

Suella Braverman has been rebuked by a senior Tory campaigner on homelessness after the home secretary provoked outrage by describing rough sleeping as a “lifestyle choice.”

Bob Blackman MP, head of the all-party parliamentary group for ending homelessness, said Braverman was wrong to discuss a complex and serious issue in such terms and advised her to use “wiser” language.

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Austria to work with UK on Rwanda-style plan for asylum seekers

Suella Braverman signs ‘migration and security agreement’ with Austrian counterpart in move to work more closely together

Austria is seeking to adopt a Rwanda-style deal to deport asylum seekers to a third country, having agreed a deal to work with the UK on migration.

Suella Braverman signed a “migration and security agreement” with her Austrian counterpart, Gerhard Karner, in which the two countries agreed to work more closely together.

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UK ministers to hold Cobra meeting on terrorism threat from Israel-Hamas conflict

Suella Braverman will meet police and national security officials at No 10 to discuss ‘accelerated’ risk

UK ministers will hold an emergency meeting of its Cobra committee amid concerns that the Israel-Gaza conflict has raised the possibility of a domestic terrorist incident.

The home secretary, Suella Braverman, will meet national security officials and police at No 10 on Monday to assess the security risk after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel more than three weeks ago.

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Suella Braverman to urge Met to use ‘full force of the law’ over ‘jihad’ chants at protest – UK politics live

Home secretary to meet Metropolitan police commissioner after officers said no offences were identified in footage from demonstration in London

Keir Starmer has said he had “productive” talks during a visit to Tata’s giant Port Talbot plant in south Wales.

The Labour leader told broadcasters:

We have ambitious plans for the steel industry. We see this as the future, not the past. That requires strategic thinking about our economy. We want to go to clean power, that will bring down energy costs.

If we are able to put in place our mission for clean power 2030, that will require more steel – and therefore we want the demand for steel to go up. Of course, we need to transition to green steel. But we must do this transition very carefully, protecting the jobs and the skills and the history that we have here in south Wales. Connecting and bridging that to the future, which is green steel.

So, we have been having productive discussions this morning about what I think will be a very bright future for steel. But only with strategic thinking around it.

They’re really living in a situation that my mother-in-law describes as torture.

The whole night there will be missiles, rocket fire, drones – they don’t know whether they are going to make it from one night to the next.

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Met must explain decision over ‘jihad’ chant at protest, says minister

Mark Harper says police should use full force of the law, as Met chief due to meet Suella Braverman

The Metropolitan police will be asked to explain to the home secretary why they failed to take action against demonstrators who chanted about “jihad” in London at the weekend, the transport secretary, Mark Harper, has said.

Suella Braverman is to meet the force’s commissioner, Sir Mark Rowley, after video footage from a rally on Saturday organised by the Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir showed a man talking about Palestine and asking what the solution was, before the word “jihad” was heard.

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Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ ‘known to government’

Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation

Gaps in UK law that would allow words such as “jihad” to be shouted at rallies were known to the government but not acted upon, Britain’s former head of counter-terrorism has revealed.

The comments from Neil Basu come as some ministers condemned police for their handling of weekend demonstrations in London, with the home secretary, Suella Braverman, due to meet the Metropolitan police commissioner on Monday.

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Fury at year-long Home Office delay over protest buffer zones at UK abortion clinics

Suella Braverman accused by MP Stella Creasy of denying will of parliament in passing safe access law

Pro-choice MPs and activists have expressed their frustration at the government’s failure to implement a law on buffer zones around abortion clinics one year after 297 MPs voted in favour of the zones and as women face a new wave of protests when accessing reproductive care.

A Home Office spokesperson told the Observer that timelines would be confirmed “in due course” but refused to explain why the law was not yet in force and failed to confirm if a consultation on safe-access zones legislation had been launched.

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