Analysis: deal satisfies some international demands but route to democratic transition after fall of Omar al-Bashir remains unclear

The deal to secure the release of the detained Sudanese prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, signed by Hamdok and Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who seized power in a military coup on 25 October, leaves Sudan in a continuing crisis.

While the agreement satisfies some of the immediate demands of the international community and mediators from the US and UN – not least securing the release of Hamdok and other political detainees – it leaves many of the country’s most serious issues in its political transition unresolved.

Demonstrations against military coup expected to continue after 15 protesters reportedly killed in a day

Pro-democracy protesters and Sudan’s military appeared set for a cycle of escalation on both sides after a day in which at least 15 demonstrators were killed by security forces.

Despite a heavy-handed crackdown by the military in the capital, Khartoum, and other cities, activists called on Thursday for an escalation of protests against last month’s military coup, a day after the deadliest security clampdown to date on demonstrators demanding the restoration of a civilian government.

Teargas and live bullets used to break up demonstration in Khartoum against the military coup

Sudanese security forces killed at least five people on Saturday and injured dozens more when they used teargas and live bullets to break up a protest in Khartoum against a military takeover of the government.

Protesters defied a military shutdown of the city to call for a return to civilian rule, as plain-clothed snipers reappeared on the streets on Saturday. On Friday, coup leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan cemented his hold on power by swearing in a new ruling council that excluded the main civilian coalition.

Campaign of civil disobedience hampered by interruptions to internet and phone services

Sudanese pro-democracy groups have launched two days of civil disobedience and strikes in protest at last month’s military coup, though participation appeared to be limited by continuing interruptions to internet and phone connections.

Local “resistance committees” and the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), which led demonstrations in the uprising that toppled the then president, Omar al-Bashir, in April 2019, are organising a campaign of protests to try to reverse the military takeover.

Dozens of politicians, journalists and activists have been swept up by army officers since takeover

In the days since Sudan’s military coup, it has become a familiar scene in Khartoum and other cities. At a home or an office, a convoy of vehicles crowded with armed men usually in plainclothes from army intelligence and the notorious paramilitary Rapid Support Forces suddenly arrives to make an arrest.

Bundled away, sometimes beaten and hooded, for some relatives it is the last news they have of those detained.

Some ministers remain in detention and could face trial for inciting rebellion, says Gen Abdel-Fattah Burhan

Sudan’s deposed prime minister and his wife have been allowed to return home “under heavy security” a day after they were detained in a military coup, as the African Union suspended the country from its organisation citing the “unconstitutional” seizure of power.

The release of Abdalla Hamdok and his wife late on Tuesday to effective house arrest followed international condemnation of the power grab and calls for the military to release all the government officials who were detained when Gen Abdel-Fattah Burhan seized power on Monday.

Abdalla Hamdok and other ministers have not been seen since Abdel Fattah al-Burhan took power in bloody coup

The Sudanese military leader who took power in a bloody coup has said he is keeping the deposed prime minister detained at the general’s personal residence “for his own safety”, as concerns mount over the wellbeing of senior arrested officials.

The prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, and other ministers have not been seen since their detention and there have been international demands for their immediate release. They were seized by security forces loyal to general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan early on Monday and remain missing.

Analysis: democratic transition that followed 30 years of military rule only papered over faultlines

In 2019, in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Sudan’s authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir – who had himself seized power in a military-backed coup in 1989 – the potential for fissures in the country’s nascent political settlement were already obvious.

As representatives of the country’s rebel movements sent delegations to the huge and sprawling public protests in Khartoum and students discussed the possibilities of democracy at coffee stalls set up on the pavement outside universities, the military – which had removed their backing from Bashir – was keeping a watchful eye with its soldiers manning checkpoints.

Military declares state of emergency and gunfire reported as protesters flood Khartoum streets

Sudan’s military has seized power in a coup, arrested leading civilian politicians including the prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, and declared a state of emergency as thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Khartoum in opposition.

A health ministry official said late on Monday that seven protesters had been killed and 140 people wounded after security forces fired on demonstrators. As night fell in Khartoum, witnesses described gangs of young men armed with sticks reportedly beating anyone found on the streets.