Middle East crisis live: Trump considering ‘winding down’ war as US eases sanctions on Iranian oil; Israel launches retaliatory strikes

Move to allow shipments already at sea comes amid a supply crisis and after US president says he does not ‘want to do a ceasefire’; IDF says it is attacking regime targets in Tehran after missiles fired at Israel from Iran

Hello and welcome to our continuing live coverage of the US-Israel war on Iran and its repercussions for the Middle East, the world and the global economy.

President Donald Trump said on Friday he was considering “winding down” military operations against Iran, as the US temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil shipments to stem a global supply crisis.

Iran is willing to help Japanese ships sail a vital route for global fuel supplies, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News in an interview published on Saturday. Japan depends on crude oil imports from the Middle East, most of which transits the strait of Hormuz.

Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia but neither of them hit the joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal and CNN reported, citing multiple US officials. The WSJ said one of the missiles failed in flight, and a US warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other. Neither outlet confirmed when Iran launched the missiles.

One person was killed and two others wounded after an Israeli airstrike hit a house in a town in southern Lebanon early on Saturday, state media said.

Trump continued to make his disappointment with the British government known, saying the UK “should have acted a lot faster” in allowing the US military to use its bases in the Middle East.

Earlier, Downing Street approved US use of its bases “for the collective self-defence of the region”, including “defensive operations” degrading Iranian missile sites targeting ships in the strait of Hormuz. Britain had previously only allowed US forces to use its bases for operations to prevent Iran firing missiles that put British interests or lives at risk.

Araghchi said UK prime minister Keir Starmer “is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran”.

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Strike on Iran gasfield exposes US-Israel rift as Trump claims he did not know

US president says he told Netanyahu ‘don’t do that’ as he distances himself from attack that has angered Gulf allies

The US-Israeli war against Iran has exposed further divisions between the two countries after an Israeli strike on Iran’s largest gasfield angered US allies in the Gulf and prompted Donald Trump to say he knew nothing in advance about the attack – a claim that Israeli officials disputed.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump said he had spoken to Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu following the strikes on Iran’s South Pars gasfield – part of a reserve shared with Qatar – and had told the Israeli prime minister to refrain from further attacks that could escalate a regional war on energy infrastructure.

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Israel strikes Iran’s South Pars gasfield hours after forces kill intelligence minister

Death confirmed of Esmail Khatib, the third senior Iranian figure killed in 24 hours, as Israel also launches intense airstrikes on Lebanon

Israel struck Iran’s giant South Pars gasfield on Wednesday, marking a major escalation of the war, hours after Israeli forces killed the regime’s intelligence minister and launched some of the most intense airstrikes in Beirut for decades.

The attack on the Pars site in the Persian Gulf, which Iran shares with Qatar and constitutes the world’s largest natural gasfield, prompted Tehran to warn neighbouring states that their energy infrastructure could be targeted “within hours”, and triggered furious rebukes from Qatar and other nations in the region.

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Middle East crisis live: Trump increases pressure on allies over strait of Hormuz; Israel says it still has ‘thousands of targets’ in Iran

Trump warns Nato faces ‘very bad’ future if US allies fail to assist in opening the vital oil route; Israel says thousands of targets in Iran remain – follow it live

Continued from previous post:

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has said she has no immediate plans to send her country’s maritime self-defence forces to help protect tanker traffic in the strait of Homuz.

We have not made any decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships. We are continuing to examine what Japan can do independently and what can be done ⁠within the legal framework.

I would like to ⁠engage in solid discussions based on Japan’s views and position regarding the need for early de-escalation.

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Initiative may be slipping away from US and Israel as Middle East crisis deepens

There is little sign of imminent regime change in Iran as its blockade of strait of Hormuz shocks global economy

Few doubt that in the first days of the new war in the Middle East, the initiative belonged to the US and its ally Israel. Now it seems less sure, however.

Mohsen Rezaee, a senior officer in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, on Sunday said “the end of the war is in our hands” and called for the withdrawal of Washington’s forces from the Gulf and compensation for all damage caused by the assault.

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Australian soldiers’ bodies ‘very likely’ disturbed by Israeli bulldozing at Gaza cemetery, senator says

David Pocock’s comments come as new photos show scale of damage and government official says its ‘quite possible’ bodies disturbed

The bodies of Australian soldiers buried in Gaza have “very likely” been disturbed, the independent senator David Pocock says, as new photos tendered to parliament show widespread damage of graves by Israeli bulldozers.

About 146 of the 263 graves of Australian soldiers buried in Gaza have been damaged, Senate estimates heard last week.

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US not ready to seek deal to end war with Iran, Donald Trump says

Tehran wants ceasefire but terms ‘not good enough yet’, US president claims, as both sides launch new waves of strikes

Donald Trump has warned he is not ready to seek a deal to end the US-Israeli offensive against Iran, saying that though he thought Tehran was keen to negotiate a ceasefire, the US would fight on for better terms.

Trump’s comments came as Iran launched fresh missile and drone attacks on countries in the Gulf and on Israel, and Israeli and US warplanes launched new waves of strikes on Iran.

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Middle East crisis live: Trump ‘surprised’ Iran has targeted Gulf countries and claims US ‘decimated’ Kharg Island

US president said he did not want to make a deal with Iran yet, while claiming that he might hit Kharg Island again ‘just for fun’

The Trump administration’s communications licensing tsar fired a warning shot over the US broadcasting industry Saturday, threatening to cancel the spectrum permits of broadcasters pushing what he termed “hoaxes and news distortions”.

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chair Brendan Carr posted on social media that broadcasters running “fake news – have a chance now to correct course before their license renewals come up. The law is clear. Broadcasters must operate in the public interest, and they will lose their licenses if they do not.”

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Israeli strike kills 12 healthcare workers in southern Lebanon

The facility was attacked on Friday night, bringing the toll of medical staff to 31 killed in past 12 days

Israel killed 12 medical workers in a strike on a medical centre in south Lebanon on Friday night, bringing the toll of healthcare staff killed in the country by Israel to 31 over the past 12 days.

A primary healthcare facility in the town of Burj Qalaouiyah was hit by an Israeli strike late on Friday, setting it ablaze and causing the structure to collapse on top of the staff inside. The strike killed doctors, paramedics and nurses on duty, according to the Lebanese ministry of health, which said it “violated all international humanitarian laws” in a statement.

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The escalation trap: how the Iran war could become more costly and complex

Iran is trying to create wedges between Gulf states and the US, but Trump is very comfortable on the ‘escalatory ladder’

• Middle East crisis – live updates

In its current phase, the Israeli-US war against Iran and its proxies has become a proving ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each of which threatens to become a trap.

On one side, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have failed thus far in their ill-defined and shifting strategic aims. Despite killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders in the opening salvo of the campaign, the clerical regime remains and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is unsecured. Airstrikes are intensifying and hitting a greater number of targets.

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‘No clear goal’: lack of Iran war plan has unleashed chaos and could stymie US military for decades, say critics

White House contends with reality of shoddy preparations for war and unclear conditions for victory

As US and Israeli jets descended to deliver the opening salvos of the war in Iran, Donald Trump’s back-of-the-envelope plan for regime change in Tehran was about to run into the reality of the largest US intervention in the Middle East since the start of the Iraq war in 2003.

That reality came quickly.

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Israeli-backed Palestinian militias step up operations against Hamas in Gaza

Armed groups appear to have increased their firepower as they carry out raids deep in Hamas-controlled territory

Pro-Israel Palestinian militia have launched repeated raids, clandestine assassination and abduction operations deep inside parts of Gaza controlled by Hamas in recent months, with new operations launched recently despite the outbreak of conflict with Iran.

The militia, which are all based in eastern parts of Gaza that are under Israeli control after a ceasefire came into effect in October, have received significant logistic support from Israel since last year but appear to have increased their firepower, allowing new and more aggressive attacks in recent weeks.

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Four crew confirmed dead after US military plane crash in Iraq

Rescue efforts continue for remaining two crew members from refuelling plane that crashed in western desert

Four of the six crew members onboard a US military aircraft that crashed in western Iraq were killed, the US military has said as rescue efforts continued for the remaining two.

The KC-135 military refuelling plane crashed in western Iraq on Thursday, in an incident the military said involved another aircraft but was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

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Israeli military drops charges against soldiers accused of Gaza detainee abuse

Five soldiers were indicted over alleged violent abuse and rape of Palestinian man at detention centre in 2024

Israel’s top military lawyer has dropped all charges against five soldiers accused of the violent abuse and rape of a Palestinian detainee from Gaza.

The military advocate general, Itay Offir, said prosecutors lacked key evidence after the victim was sent back to Gaza, and that the conduct of senior officials had affected the chance of holding a fair trial.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran steps up campaign to disrupt energy markets as oil price spikes above $100 a barrel

Iran has set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it increased attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East

An Iranian source is denying the country will allow India-flagged tankers to pass through the vital strait of Hormuz, Reuters is reporting.

The news agency a little earlier quoted an Indian source as saying Iran would in fact allow such tankers to pass through the strait, a key artery for global oil trade.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran steps up campaign to disrupt energy markets as oil price spikes above $100 a barrel

Iran has set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it increased attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East

An Iranian source is denying the country will allow India-flagged tankers to pass through the vital strait of Hormuz, Reuters is reporting.

The news agency a little earlier quoted an Indian source as saying Iran would in fact allow such tankers to pass through the strait, a key artery for global oil trade.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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Countries must seek energy independence through renewables and nuclear, says John Kerry

Former US secretary of state says oil shock driven by war in Iran highlights dangers of reliance on fossil fuels

Countries must seek energy independence through renewable resources and nuclear energy for their national security, and to avoid the “choke points” of fossil fuel supply, the former US secretary of state John Kerry has warned.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, as refineries and fields have closed down in several Middle Eastern countries and many tankers are stranded in the strait of Hormuz, with economic impacts beginning to be felt around the world.

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