Inaugural report shows Labour languishing on 29% of the vote while National records 34.5% as cost of living concerns dominate

A new political poll has put New Zealand’s centre-right opposition solidly ahead of the ruling Labour party in the lead up to October’s election, with the National and ACT parties recording the majority support needed to form a coalition government.

Labour languished on 29% of the vote in the Guardian Essential poll New Zealand, which polled more than 1,100 eligible voters, with National recording 34.5%. ACT received 11.6% of the vote. Respondents unsure about how they would vote – 6.1% of those surveyed – were included in the final result.

This poll was conducted by Essential Research and has a sample size of 1,163, using quotas set to be representative of the target population by age, gender and location. Respondents not eligible or not intending to vote are excluded from voting intention questions. Weighting is applied to the data using factors of age, gender, location and enrolment status, from Statistics New Zealand and New Zealand Electoral Commission data. The poll was conducted through online panels between 2-6 August 2023, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 2.9%, a weighting efficiency of 97%, and 6.1% were unsure on the party vote question. Unsure voters remain in the final result, but were removed for the purpose of calculating seats in Parliament. The full results are available at the Essential Report New Zealand.