The edge of war: what, exactly, does Putin want in Ukraine?

The massive military buildup could be a bluff, or a political ploy designed for a Russian audience. Either way, the US is digging in

Russian spokespeople daily deny any intention to invade. So, too, did Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, when he met the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, last week, and when he spoke to US president Joe Biden on the phone. There are two problems with this. First, given Putin’s Johnsonian relationship with truth, few western governments believe the denials. Second, Putin has not explained why, if his intentions are peaceful, more than half of Russia’s armed forces, including 130,000 troops, are massed on Ukraine’s borders. It could all be a bluff. But who would bet the house on that?

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Thousands of Ukrainians rally in Kyiv in show of solidarity – video

Ukrainians rallied in Kyiv on Saturday to show unity as international warnings of a Russian invasion sharpened.

Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, told people not to panic, but more than 100,000 Russian troops are positioned near Ukraine and have carried out large-scale exercises, increasing tensions.

The US said on Friday an invasion could start at any moment, but Russia denied having any plans to launch one.

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Panic is our enemy’s best friend, says Ukraine president – video

Warnings of an imminent Russian invasion do not help Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in a press conference on 12 February.

Zelenskiy said he has 'a lot of information' that he would analyse without sowing panic as countries, including the UK and the US, issued warnings for their citizens to leave Ukraine.

Tensions have been mounting for weeks during the Russian military buildup near its ex-Soviet neighbour

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White House confirms Biden-Putin call on Saturday – as it happened

A Republican Senate primary candidate in Arizona has been condemned for a “disgusting” campaign ad in which he shoots at lookalike actors portraying Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and incumbent Arizona senator Mark Kelly.

Jim Lamon, an energy executive, shared the ad on Twitter, saying it would be aired at this year’s Super Bowl.

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US warns of ‘distinct possibility’ Russia will invade Ukraine within days

  • Joe Biden due to speak with Putin by phone on Saturday
  • Officials tell Americans to leave Ukraine in next 48 hours

The US has warned of the “very distinct possibility” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few days, potentially involving an overwhelming attack on Kyiv, and told all remaining Americans to leave the country in the next 48 hours.

Joe Biden is due to speak to Vladimir Putin by phone on Saturday. Diplomatic sources said that Biden had told allied leaders in a call that Vladimir Putin had taken a decision to go ahead with an invasion, but Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said: “We have not seen anything come to us that says a final decision has been taken, [that] the go order has been given.”

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Biden urges US citizens to leave Ukraine as ‘things could go crazy quickly’ – video

The US president has urged American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. 'We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. This is a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly,' Joe Biden said in an interview with NBC News. In Berlin on Thursday night, Russia and Ukraine said they had failed to reach any breakthrough after a day of related talks with French and German officials aimed at ending an eight-year separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine

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‘Things could go crazy quickly,’ Biden warns on Ukraine as talks in Berlin fail

US president urges all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately, while British defence secretary heads to Moscow

US president Joe Biden has warned that “things could go crazy quickly” in Ukraine and again urged American citizens to leave immediately, as the UK’s defence secretary headed to Moscow in the latest round of diplomacy.

“American citizens should leave, should leave now,” Biden said in an interview with NBC News. “We’re dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. This is a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly.”

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Liz Truss warns Russia of sanctions during tense Ukraine talks

Foreign secretary issues warning as Sergei Lavrov describes UK’s contribution to talks as ‘just slogans’

The British foreign secretary, Liz Truss, has personally warned Moscow of tough sanctions that are to be imposed if Russia attacks Ukraine, during tense talks that Russia’s top diplomat said were like a conversation of “the mute with the deaf”.

The British sanctions package remained under government review on Thursday, somewhat undermining Truss’s threat as she led a British diplomatic effort to head off a potential Russian offensive in Ukraine.

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‘Most dangerous moment’ in Ukraine crisis, says Johnson meeting with Nato chief – video

Boris Johnson has said the Ukraine crisis has entered 'the most dangerous moment' on a visit to Nato’s headquarters as Russia continues its military buildup on the borders of its southern neighbour.

Military analysts estimate Moscow has massed more than 135,000 troops on the borders of Ukraine, both in Russia and in Belarus – and some now believe nearly all the necessary elements are in place if Putin wanted to attack.

Nato's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said a political solution was still possible but warned Russia would 'pay a high price' if it chose confrontation

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Liz Truss heads to Moscow with ‘toughest sanctions’ plan delayed

Foreign secretary told MPs laws would be in place by 10 February but nothing has been put to parliament

The British foreign secretary, Liz Truss, will meet her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Thursday with her plan to have put the UK’s “toughest sanctions regime against Russia” on the statute book in time for the trip having fallen through.

Truss told MPs the laws would be in place by 10 February, but nothing has been put to parliament, raising suspicions among opposition MPs that government lawyers are struggling to frame the sweeping and unprecedented new laws.

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Can Ukraine and Russia be persuaded to abide by Minsk accords?

Analysis: As Macron tries to revive 2015 agreement, Ukraine believes it is impossible to fulfil as it could hand power to Russia

In the often acrimonious back-and-forth between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, “fulfilling Minsk” has become something of a meaningless mantra: all sides agree to abide by the 2015 Minsk accords in public, but neither has any real intention of implementing the provisions of the agreement.

Yet in his intensive peacemaking efforts this week, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, appears to be pinning his hopes on a renewed attempt to breathe life into the seven-year-old agreement.

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Belarus military drills to begin as Russia ratchets up Ukraine tensions

Satellite imagery shows much Russian hardware has been moved to locations close to Ukraine border

Russia and Belarus will begin 10 days of joint military drills on Thursday, setting in train one of the most overtly threatening elements of the Kremlin’s buildup of forces around Ukraine’s borders.

Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian general staff, arrived in Belarus on Wednesday to oversee the drills.

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Most Europeans want to stand with Kyiv against Moscow, poll suggests

More than 60% of people surveyed believe Nato should come to Ukraine’s defence if Russia invades

Majorities across Europe think Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022 and believe both Nato and the EU should stand by Kyiv, according to a study whose authors suggest the crisis could end up dramatically changing the way Europeans view their security.

“The data suggests something of a geopolitical awakening in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which carried out the polling in seven countries, accounting for two-thirds of the EU’s population.

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: where are Putin’s troops and what are his options?

A visual guide to recent troop deployments as tensions soar

American officials have warned of the “very distinct possibility” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few days, after Russia forward-deployed hundreds of tanks, self-propelled artillery and even short-range ballistic missiles from as far away as Siberia to within striking range.

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Emmanuel Macron’s remarks on Russia set alarm bells ringing

Analysis: French president’s comments after Ukraine talks with Vladimir Putin should concern Nato alliance

Domestic critics of Emmanuel Macron, Nato hardliners and the leadership in Ukraine will be suspiciously examining the French president’s late-night remarks at his Moscow press conference on Monday for signs of freelancing.

At one level, Macron, three months from a re-election campaign, stuck pretty faithfully to the script he had exhaustively agreed with his Nato partners before his meeting with Vladimir Putin, but at another level his particular view of Russia as a European nation, and lofty talk of a new security guarantees, will have set alarm bells ringing.

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Macron holds talks with Ukraine leader as Moscow denies deal to de-escalate

Volodymyr Zelenskiy hosts meeting in Kyiv amid confusion over French claims of private agreement with Putin

Emmanuel Macron has held talks with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Kyiv amid confusion over French claims that Russia has privately agreed not to carry out any new “military initiatives”.

French officials made the suggestion after six hours of talks late on Monday between Macron and Vladimir Putin. The officials, speaking anonymously, said Putin had agreed to pull Russian troops out of Belarus once military exercises conclude later this month.

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Macron urges ‘de-escalation’ in Ukraine crisis at Moscow talks with Putin – video

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Russia's Vladimir Putin did not appear to reach a breakthrough in negotiations at the Kremlin on Monday aimed at fending off a Russian attack on Ukraine. Macron urged 'de-escalation' in the region, as Putin acknowledged the French leader's efforts in Europe's collective security

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Talks between Macron and Putin fail to produce Ukraine breakthrough

French president says both sides need to work quickly to avoid escalation after five-hour session at the Kremlin

Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin did not appear to reach a breakthrough in marathon talks at the Kremlin on Monday evening aimed at fending off a Russian attack on Ukraine.

After five hours of negotiations, Macron warned that the two sides needed to work quickly to avoid the risk of an escalation.

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What have Nord Stream 2 and gas got to do with the Ukraine standoff?

We answer your questions on the pipeline as the west considers its options in the event of a Russian invasion

Gas is not just a source of energy, sometimes it is a political weapon. As western countries weigh possible sanctions against Russia for an invasion of Ukraine, the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline hangs in the balance. But it’s complicated. The EU gets 41% of its gas from Russia; Russia earns 60% of its import revenues from the bloc. The crisis over Ukraine comes as Europe is struggling to deal with soaring gas prices and internal divisions over how to wean itself off fossil fuels in response to the climate emergency.

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US troops arrive in Poland as Russia adds to forces at Ukraine border – video

The US has ordered about 3,000 extra troops to bolster Nato’s eastern flank in Poland and Romania.

Russia has denied planning to invade Ukraine but has tens of thousands of troops near its neighbour’s borders

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