Liz Truss heads to Moscow with ‘toughest sanctions’ plan delayed

Foreign secretary told MPs laws would be in place by 10 February but nothing has been put to parliament

The British foreign secretary, Liz Truss, will meet her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Thursday with her plan to have put the UK’s “toughest sanctions regime against Russia” on the statute book in time for the trip having fallen through.

Truss told MPs the laws would be in place by 10 February, but nothing has been put to parliament, raising suspicions among opposition MPs that government lawyers are struggling to frame the sweeping and unprecedented new laws.

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Can Ukraine and Russia be persuaded to abide by Minsk accords?

Analysis: As Macron tries to revive 2015 agreement, Ukraine believes it is impossible to fulfil as it could hand power to Russia

In the often acrimonious back-and-forth between Russia and Ukraine in recent years, “fulfilling Minsk” has become something of a meaningless mantra: all sides agree to abide by the 2015 Minsk accords in public, but neither has any real intention of implementing the provisions of the agreement.

Yet in his intensive peacemaking efforts this week, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, appears to be pinning his hopes on a renewed attempt to breathe life into the seven-year-old agreement.

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Belarus military drills to begin as Russia ratchets up Ukraine tensions

Satellite imagery shows much Russian hardware has been moved to locations close to Ukraine border

Russia and Belarus will begin 10 days of joint military drills on Thursday, setting in train one of the most overtly threatening elements of the Kremlin’s buildup of forces around Ukraine’s borders.

Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian general staff, arrived in Belarus on Wednesday to oversee the drills.

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Most Europeans want to stand with Kyiv against Moscow, poll suggests

More than 60% of people surveyed believe Nato should come to Ukraine’s defence if Russia invades

Majorities across Europe think Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022 and believe both Nato and the EU should stand by Kyiv, according to a study whose authors suggest the crisis could end up dramatically changing the way Europeans view their security.

“The data suggests something of a geopolitical awakening in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which carried out the polling in seven countries, accounting for two-thirds of the EU’s population.

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Russia-Ukraine crisis: where are Putin’s troops and what are his options?

A visual guide to recent troop deployments as tensions soar

American officials have warned of the “very distinct possibility” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few days, after Russia forward-deployed hundreds of tanks, self-propelled artillery and even short-range ballistic missiles from as far away as Siberia to within striking range.

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Emmanuel Macron’s remarks on Russia set alarm bells ringing

Analysis: French president’s comments after Ukraine talks with Vladimir Putin should concern Nato alliance

Domestic critics of Emmanuel Macron, Nato hardliners and the leadership in Ukraine will be suspiciously examining the French president’s late-night remarks at his Moscow press conference on Monday for signs of freelancing.

At one level, Macron, three months from a re-election campaign, stuck pretty faithfully to the script he had exhaustively agreed with his Nato partners before his meeting with Vladimir Putin, but at another level his particular view of Russia as a European nation, and lofty talk of a new security guarantees, will have set alarm bells ringing.

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Macron holds talks with Ukraine leader as Moscow denies deal to de-escalate

Volodymyr Zelenskiy hosts meeting in Kyiv amid confusion over French claims of private agreement with Putin

Emmanuel Macron has held talks with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in Kyiv amid confusion over French claims that Russia has privately agreed not to carry out any new “military initiatives”.

French officials made the suggestion after six hours of talks late on Monday between Macron and Vladimir Putin. The officials, speaking anonymously, said Putin had agreed to pull Russian troops out of Belarus once military exercises conclude later this month.

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Macron urges ‘de-escalation’ in Ukraine crisis at Moscow talks with Putin – video

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Russia's Vladimir Putin did not appear to reach a breakthrough in negotiations at the Kremlin on Monday aimed at fending off a Russian attack on Ukraine. Macron urged 'de-escalation' in the region, as Putin acknowledged the French leader's efforts in Europe's collective security

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Talks between Macron and Putin fail to produce Ukraine breakthrough

French president says both sides need to work quickly to avoid escalation after five-hour session at the Kremlin

Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin did not appear to reach a breakthrough in marathon talks at the Kremlin on Monday evening aimed at fending off a Russian attack on Ukraine.

After five hours of negotiations, Macron warned that the two sides needed to work quickly to avoid the risk of an escalation.

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What have Nord Stream 2 and gas got to do with the Ukraine standoff?

We answer your questions on the pipeline as the west considers its options in the event of a Russian invasion

Gas is not just a source of energy, sometimes it is a political weapon. As western countries weigh possible sanctions against Russia for an invasion of Ukraine, the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline hangs in the balance. But it’s complicated. The EU gets 41% of its gas from Russia; Russia earns 60% of its import revenues from the bloc. The crisis over Ukraine comes as Europe is struggling to deal with soaring gas prices and internal divisions over how to wean itself off fossil fuels in response to the climate emergency.

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US troops arrive in Poland as Russia adds to forces at Ukraine border – video

The US has ordered about 3,000 extra troops to bolster Nato’s eastern flank in Poland and Romania.

Russia has denied planning to invade Ukraine but has tens of thousands of troops near its neighbour’s borders

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Macron hopes for ‘historic solution’ to Ukraine crisis ahead of Putin meeting

French leader, who will travel to Kyiv on Tuesday, is optimistic he can secure peace, despite the US saying Russia could invade ‘tomorrow’

French president Emmanuel Macron believes he can deliver “a historic solution” to the Ukraine crisis ahead of his arrival in Moscow for talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

After a flurry of diplomatic activity that included talks with US president Joe Biden this weekend and three phone calls with Putin, Macron will land in Moscow on Monday seeking a “de-escalation” of the tense standoff on Ukraine’s eastern borders.

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Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief

White House believes Moscow has amassed at least 70% of firepower needed for mid-February invasion

Russia has enough troops in place to seize Kyiv or another Ukrainian city but not yet for a full takeover and occupation of the country, Ukraine’s former defence minister has said, as Washington warned that an invasion could take place at any time.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk said in an interview with the Guardian that the situation looked “pretty dire”. “Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine. But we still don’t see the 200,000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion,” he said.

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Biden rattles his sabre at Putin … but it’s Xi he really wants to scare

Tub-thumping talk of all-out war in Ukraine seems overblown but the White House knows the fledgling Sino-Russian axis is a real threat, in Taiwan and elsewhere

If, as seems increasingly probable, Russia decides not to launch an all-out invasion of Ukraine, tub-thumping US and British politicians who have spent weeks scaring the public with loose talk of looming Armageddon will have some explaining to do.

The military build-up directed by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, is real enough. But suspicion grows that the actual as opposed to the hypothetical threat of a large-scale conventional attack is being mis-read, misinterpreted, over-estimated or deliberately exaggerated.

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Ukraine crisis: Russia has in place 70% of military needed for full invasion – US officials

Fears an attack could lead to 50,000 casualties as US troops arrive in Poland and French and German leaders prepare to visit Kyiv and Moscow

Russia has assembled at least 70% of the military firepower it intends to have in place by the middle of February to give President Vladimir Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, US officials have said.

On Saturday, officials warned that a full Russian invasion could lead to the quick capture of Kyiv and potentially result in as many as 50,000 civilians killed or wounded, according to the New York Times and Washington Post. A US official confirmed that estimate to the Associated Press but it is not clear how US agencies determined those numbers.

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Record Covid cases in Russia and Ukraine complicate military plans

Spread of Omicron variant cited as another factor that could determine whether Moscow launches offensive

The Omicron variant is causing record numbers of new Covid infections in Russia and Ukraine, threatening to impact military calculations over Russia’s continued troop buildup.

Analysts have cited various factors as possible contributors to whether and how Russia will launch an assault on Ukraine, ranging from Vladimir Putin’s psychological state to the strength of the western response and even the firmness of the ground during a mild winter in the region.

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Ministers accused of failing to stem flow of Russian ‘dirty money’ into UK

Anti-corruption activists criticise government inaction in face of years of Kremlin provocation

Britain’s efforts to halt the flow of Russian “dirty money” into the UK have been called into question in the aftermath of a threat by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, to hit Kremlin-linked oligarchs with economic sanctions if Ukraine is attacked.

Labour and anti-corruption campaigners this week accused the government of failing to curtail Russian wealth and influence in Britain, despite years of provocative actions from the Kremlin.

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‘Almost invisible’: Germans lose patience with Olaf Scholz as he hesitates on Ukraine

The new chancellor has faced criticism abroad for his stance, and is now coming under fire at home

Germany’s new chancellor Olaf Scholz is waving goodbye to the honeymoon period of his tenure, as his “inaudible” stance over the brewing crisis on the Ukrainian border is failing to impress not just Russia-hawks abroad but also more ambivalent voters at home.

Scholz, whose liberal-left “traffic light” coalition was sworn in less than two months ago, has been criticised by Kyiv and other east-central European capitals for sticking to his country’s restrictive stance on weapons export to crisis regions and looking slow to spell out the potential sanctions that could be triggered by a Russian invasion into Ukraine.

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Russia plans ‘very graphic’ fake video as pretext for Ukraine invasion, US claims

Officials say they have evidence of plot to mock up scenes of attack using corpses, Turkish-made drones and actors playing mourners

US officials claim they have evidence of a Russian plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for an invasion.

The alleged plot would involve using corpses, footage of blown-up buildings, fake Ukrainian military hardware, Turkish-made drones and actors playing the part of Russian-speaking mourners.

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‘We will defend our country’: Ukraine’s border guards brace for Russian assault

While some locals at Belarusian border see no cause for concern, troops and tanks are ready to swing into action

Standing next to the snowy Belarusian border, Vladyslav Gorban showed off Ukraine’s latest defences against Russian attack. New wooden posts topped with coils of gleaming razor wire ran alongside a slush-covered road. There was a shallow defensive ditch, dug some time ago, and a yellow and blue customs post. Plus a dog, used to sniff out narcotics.

Gorban, a border guard, admitted Russian tanks would be able to smash through this flimsy ensemble of barricades and continue towards Kyiv, 140 miles away. But he had a warning. “If the Russians come, they can expect a nasty surprise,” he said, hinting at the new portable anti-tank weapons sent by the UK to Ukraine’s embattled pro-western government.

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