Dutch F-16 jets to arrive at Romanian training centres in weeks; Moldova blocks Russian news agencies – as it happened

Dutch PM says F-16 jets for Ukraine to arrive in two weeks; Moldova accuses Russia of information war against country. This blog is closed

In its latest intelligence update, the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said a Russian state-backed private military company (PMC) is specifically attempting to recruit women into combat roles in Ukraine for the first time.

Posting to X, formerly Twitter, the MoD wrote:

Recent social media adverts have appealed for female recruits to join Borz Battalion, a part of Russian PMC Redut, to work as snipers and uncrewed aerial vehicle operators. Redut is likely directly sponsored by the Russian main directorate of intelligence.

In March 2023, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said that 1,100 women were deployed in Ukraine, which would equate to only around 0.3 per cent of its force. As Redut’s advert points out, they currently serve in mostly medical support and food service roles.

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‘Hamas has created additional demand’: Wall Street eyes big profits from war

Morgan Stanley and TD Bank hope for aerospace and weapons boon after a 7% value increase from start of Israel-Hamas conflict

The United Nations has warned that there was “clear evidence” that war crimes may have been committed in “the explosion of violence in Israel and Gaza”. Meanwhile, Wall Street is hoping for an explosion in profits.

During third-quarter earnings calls this month, analysts from Morgan Stanley and TD Bank took note of this potential profit-making escalation in conflict and asked unusually blunt questions about the financial benefit of the war between Israel and Hamas.

Co-published with Responsible Statecraft

Eli Clifton is a senior advisor at the Quincy Institute and Investigative Journalist at Large at Responsible Statecraft

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow says it has shot down 36 Ukrainian drones – as it happened

Claims drone strike or debris from downed drone has caused fire in oil refinery near Black Sea in Russia

Once a week, Ukrainian parents bring their children to a community centre in Kyiv for canine therapy.

Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China’s biggest annual show of military diplomacy, started on Sunday, but the name of Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu, initially listed in the forum’s agenda as the first guest speaker at tomorrow’s opening ceremony, was not on the agenda.

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Afghans who fled Taliban to UK ‘set to be made homeless at Christmas’

Home Office has imposed a 15 December deadline to eject people who worked for UK in Afghanistan from hotels, say councils

More than 1,000 Afghans in the UK face being made homeless days before Christmas after the Home Office imposed a fresh deadline to eject them from hotels.

The Local Government Association (LGA) revealed the number of at-risk Afghans, which includes families, after the Home Office last week imposed the new deadline of 15 December.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 613

Russian losses in Avdiivka may be its worst of 2023, says UK; Ukraine and Netherlands start bilateral agreement talks

Russia would confiscate assets belonging to EU states it deems unfriendly if the bloc “steals” frozen Russian funds in a drive to fund Ukraine, a top ally of president Vladimir Putin said. It comes after Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said that the EU executive was working on a proposal to pool some of the profits derived from frozen Russian state assets to help Ukraine and its post-war reconstruction.

Russia and Ukraine are locked in a stalemate on the frontlines of their war and the two sides need to sit down and negotiate an end to the conflict, the Belarus leader said. Alexander Lukashenko, a key Putin ally, described the current state of the conflict as “head-to-head, to the death, entrenched … Seriously stalemate.”

Russian forces are believed to have suffered some of the country’s biggest casualty rates so far this year as a result of continued “heavy but inconclusive” fighting around the Donetsk oblast town of Avdiivka.

Four Ukrainian police officers were wounded when a shell fired by Russian troops exploded by their police car in the city of Siversk, located in the partly occupied Donetsk province.

A third round of Ukrainian-backed peace talks opened in Malta, but without Moscow. In a statement, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said 66 countries had taken part, proof that his plan “has gradually become global”.

The head of the office of the president of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, has praised Qatar’s role in facilitating the return of four Ukrainian children from Russian captivity earlier this month.

Ukraine and the Netherlands began talks on a bilateral agreement on security guarantees in Malta, Yermak also announced. It is the sixth country to start bilateral negotiations with Ukraine on security guarantees.

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Russian losses in battle for Avdiivka may be worst of 2023, says UK

MoD intelligence update says up to eight brigades have been committed to ‘heavy but inconclusive’ fighting

Russian forces are believed to have suffered some of the country’s biggest casualty rates so far this year as a result of continued “heavy but inconclusive” fighting around the Donetsk oblast town of Avdiivka.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence’s intelligence update on Saturday morning, Russia has probably committed elements of up to eight brigades to the sector where it initiated a “major offensive effort” in mid-October.

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Ukraine look to Las Vegas as model for ousting Russians from gambling sector

Officials to take inspiration from way US authorities rooted out Italian mob in Nevada in bid to reduce Russian exploitation of industry

Ukrainian officials seeking to oust Russian actors from its gambling industry are going to emulate the methods of the US authorities in the 1980s when they rooted out the Italian mob from the casinos of Las Vegas.

Gambling was legalised in Ukraine after a 10-year ban shortly before the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and has since continued to be a profitable avenue for Russians who want to make money in the country and collect the personal data of Ukrainian gamblers.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 612

Russia loses brigade’s worth of troops in push for Avdiivka, says Zelenskiy; heavy shelling hits Kherson; Macron condemns Orbán’s meeting with Putin

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, claimed that Russian forces had lost at least a brigade’s worth of troops attempting to advance on Ukraine’s eastern town of Avdiivka. Russia began a renewed push to encircle the embattled town in mid-October, trying to overwhelm Ukrainian positions with constant barrages of artillery and waves of troops and fighting vehicles, according to reports.

Russian forces have heavily shelled the centre of the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, injuring a number of people and damaging at least 10 buildings, a senior local official and emergency workers said.

The European Council has outlined plans to seize the profits from frozen Russian assets and direct billions of euros to support Ukraine. In a set of formal public conclusions after the culmination of an EU leaders’ summit, it said that “extraordinary revenues held by private entities stemming directly from Russia’s immobilised assets” could be directed to support Ukraine and its recovery.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has condemned the Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán’s recent meeting and handshake with Vladimir Putin. “In the situation we are in with Russia, we should not use these bilateral contacts to negotiate things about ourselves that would weaken our unity [on Ukraine],” Macron said after the EU leaders’ meeting in Brussels.

Russia’s top investigative body has said it had opened a criminal inquiry into the attempted murder of former Ukrainian lawmaker Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Russian figure who was reported to have been lined up by Moscow to lead a puppet administration in Kyiv after Russia’s invasion. He is in intensive care after being shot, a Russian official said.

The wives and family of enlisted Ukrainian soldiers have gathered at Independence Square in Kyiv to call for the right to voluntarily demobilise after 18 months. “Our servicemen are strong, but they are not robots,” protesters shouted during the rally.

The new Slovak prime minister, Robert Fico, has told other EU leaders that €50bn in EU aid to Ukraine should include guarantees that the funds would not be misappropriated, his office said. “Ukraine is among the most corrupt countries in the world,” he claimed.

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Russia-Ukraine war: Zelenskiy claims equivalent of Russian brigade lost near Avdiivka; Putin warns of weapon smuggling from Ukraine – as it happened

Ukraine’s president tells British PM brigade’s worth of troops lost trying to encircle embattled city; Putin demands action on weapons trafficking

The Russian-installed official Vladimir Rogov has claimed Russia destroyed “at least four” of the Leopard tanks supplied to Ukraine by the west in the Zaporizhzhia region within the past 24 hours.

Zaporizhzhia is one of the regions Russia partly occupies and has claimed to annex.

I think it’s really important that one of the outcomes of this meeting is that we don’t lose focus on Ukraine. Because of all the other things that are happening in the world, and not least in the Middle East, it would be very easy to lose focus on the war in Ukraine – and essential that we don’t do that.

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Pro-Moscow Ukrainian politician shot in apparent assassination attempt

Oleg Tsaryov, who had been tipped to lead a puppet government after Russia’s 2022 invasion, is in a critical condition

A Ukrainian politician once said to have been considered for leader of a Kremlin-controlled puppet government in Ukraine is in a critical condition after he was shot twice in an apparent assassination attempt at a sanatorium in Crimea.

Oleg Tsaryov, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian figure who played a prominent political role in the 2014 war against the Kyiv government, was shot twice by an unknown assailant, his associates have confirmed.

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Evidence mounts of North Korean arms to Russia in threat for Ukraine

Despite questions over quality, scale of munition shipments indicates Moscow plans to continue conflict for long time

In pouring rain, a jubilant crowd waving pompoms and flowers greeted the Russian foreign minister as he stepped on to the airport asphalt in Pyongyang.

While the heavily choreographed welcoming scenes were a familiar sight in totalitarian North Korea, Sergei Lavrov’s rare visit to the country came amid mounting evidence that Pyongyang has started to provide artillery rounds to Russia, opening up a supply line that could have profound implications for the war in Ukraine.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 610

Volodymyr Zelenskiy says Ukraine is preparing for renewed Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure ahead of winter; Russia claims to have conducted a simulated nuclear strike

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Ukraine is preparing for renewed Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure ahead of the second winter of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of the country – and that the country is ready to counterattack if targeted. “We are preparing for terrorist attacks on our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskiy said. “This year we will not only defend ourselves, but also respond.”

Russia claims it has tested its ability to deliver a retaliatory nuclear strike in an exercise involving the launch of missiles by land, sea and air. News of the exercise was delivered on Russian state TV by the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu.

The exercise followed Russia’s parliament completing the passing of a law that withdraws Moscow’s ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests. Russia’s upper house, the Federation Council, approved the law by 156 votes to zero earlier today after the lower house, the Duma, had also passed it unanimously. Russia says it is revoking its withdrawal of the treaty only to bring itself in line with the US, which signed but never ratified the same document.

Russia’s military claimed on Wednesday that its air defence forces had shot down two long-range US-made ATACM missiles fired by Ukraine at Russian targets in what state media said was the first downing of its kind. Russia’s defence ministry reported the interception in one of its regular updates on the war in Ukraine, something Moscow still calls “a special military operation.” It did not provide further details. The Reuters news agency was unable to independently verify Moscow’s claim and there was no immediate comment from Kyiv or Washington.

A drone attack by Russia near Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant temporarily cut power to some off-site radiation monitoring stations, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. “This incident again underlines the extremely precarious nuclear safety situation in Ukraine,” said the IAEA’s director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi.

In his nightly address, Zelenskiy accused Russia of targeting the power plant. “It is most likely that the target for these drones was the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power station. The shockwave from the explosion shattered windows, including on the nuclear power station’s premises,” he said.

The attack involved 11 Shahed drones and injured 16 people according to local authorities. Power lines were also damaged, with two towns close to the nuclear power plant, Netishyn and Slavuta, facing power cuts. Ukraine’s air force said it stopped all the drones that were launched.

Russian forces are disregarding heavy losses and pressing on with a drive to capture the eastern city of Avdiivka, Ukrainian officials have claimed. “The enemy is trying to move forward and then we beat them back,” Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern groups of forces, said on national TV. Russia has focused on the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk since failing in its initial drive on the capital Kyiv after mounting its invasion in February 2022.

Ukraine said it was aiming to increase domestic manufacture of its own drones, producing tens of thousands every month by the end of the year. Kyiv has relied heavily on foreign-made drones in the war so far, but is looking to ramp up its output despite the challenge posed by Russia’s invasion.

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Ukraine ready to counterattack if Russia strikes energy plants, says Zelenskiy

President says Ukraine will not only defend its infrastructure but will also respond, as it prepares for attacks this winter

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Ukraine is preparing for renewed Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure ahead of the second winter of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of the country – and that the country is ready to counterattack if targeted.

“We are preparing for terrorist attacks on our energy infrastructure,” Zelenskiy said. “This year we will not only defend ourselves, but also respond.”

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Russia claims it has rehearsed ability to deliver retaliatory nuclear strike

Defence minister’s comments come after earlier announcement of plans to withdraw from global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests

In its latest intelligence update, the UK’s Ministry of Defence highlighted Russia’s capability to strike targets near the Dnipro River with artillery.

“As in most sectors, a decisive factor is almost certainly the combatants’ ability to bring accurate, intense artillery fire to bear. Initial indication suggests that Russia has maintained a significant artillery capability within range of the river,” it stated.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 609

Volodymyr Zelenskiy says it is a ‘question of time’ before Ukraine regains control over Crimea; Russian forces continue pounding eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, vowed to maintain military pressure on Russian-occupied Crimea. “We have not yet gained full fire control over Crimea and surrounding waters, but we will,” Zelenskiy told a meeting of the Crimea Platform, a diplomatic initiative he launched in 2021. “This is a question of time.”

Russian forces continued to pound the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka on Tuesday, Ukrainian officials are quoted as saying. Heavy losses forced Russia to switch to air attacks instead of ground advances, they claimed.

Two civilians have been killed in an artillery strike on a village near Kupiansk, Kharkiv’s regional governor, Oleh Synehub, has said. Russian forces have reportedly been attacking further north in the area of Kupiansk – a town initially seized by Russia after the invasion but recaptured by Ukraine last year.

Russian has claimed successful artillery and air strikes near Bakhmut - a town to the north-east captured by Russian forces in May after months of battles. Reuters says it could not independently verify accounts of battlefield activity on either side.

Australia says it’s sending a 3D metal printer and anti-drone systems to Ukraine as part of a A$20m ($12.8m )military assistance package. Prime minister Anthony Albanese is quoted as saying “Australia remains steadfast in supporting Ukraine to defend itself against Russia’s illegal and immoral invasion”. It takes the country’s total aid to about A$910m ($582m) since Russia invaded. It is understood the Australian Prime Minister will discuss the Ukraine confclit with Joe Biden during his state visit to the US.

Moldova blocked access to more than 20 Russian media websites on Tuesday, saying they had been used as part of an information war against the country. A decree published online by Moldova’s Intelligence and Security Service listed 22 Russian news resources to be blocked, including prominent ones such as Russia Today, NTV, Ren TV, state media holding VGTRK and others. The Russian foreign ministry is quoted as saying the move is a “hostile step” aimed at denying Moldovans access to alternative news sources. Moldova restricted TV broadcasts of Russia-produced news, analytical and military-related content in June 2022 following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Joe Biden’s request for Ukraine aid remains in limbo, as US House Republicans continue to struggle to elect a speaker.

Ukraine has set up a joint defence venture with German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall AG to service and repair western weapons sent to help Kyiv against Russia’s full-scale invasion, officials said.

Ukraine expects Germany to provide it with an additional €1.4bn to enhance its air defences and help it get through a second winter at war with Russia, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said.

The EU is on track towards its goal of ending its reliance on Russian fossil fuels within this decade, the European Commission said.

Two people died and others were injured in Russian shelling of Kherson, the local governor claimed.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, met the Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran earlier. Russia and Iran were firming up bilateral relations in a “trusting” atmosphere, Russia’s foreign ministry said early on Tuesday.

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy says he will keep up military pressure on Russian-occupied Crimea

Ukrainian president says military pressure will continue, during video address in Prague that was marred by possible hack attack, says Czech parliament

The Kremlin has rejected speculation about Vladimir Putin’s health, saying the president is fit and well.

In a regular call with reporters, Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, , also denied suggestions that the Russian leader was using body doubles, calling them an “absurd hoax”.

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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 608

Sweden says ‘external force or tampering’ broke cable to Estonia; US seeks forfeiture of Russian-owned yacht worth $300m

Damage to a telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia this month was caused by “external force or tampering”, the Swedish government said.

Three residents of Kherson oblast were arrested for allegedly helping Russian forces target locations for strikes in the city of Kherson, the regional prosecutor’s office announced on Monday, according to the Kyiv Independent.

In an intelligence update, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said Russian government spending had become increasingly focused on the costs of its war on Ukraine.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said Vladimir Putin’s Russia “is the most heinous evil the world has witnessed since WWII” and that the Russian president and other “Russian perpetrators must face justice for their crimes”.

Kuleba cited Forbes as reporting that Russia has spent around $167bn (£137bn) on the war between February 2022 and August 2023, with which it could have built almost 24,000 kindergartens across Russia, or more than 4,500 maternity wards, or about 17,000 schools. “Instead, Russian war criminals have bombed Ukrainian kindergartens, maternity wards, schools, and hospitals, destroying almost 120,000 civilian structures in all.”

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has submitted a bill for Sweden’s Nato membership to parliament for ratification, the Turkish presidency said. Turkey and Hungary are the only Nato members yet to ratify Sweden’s membership request.

Trade between Russia and India in the first eight months of 2023 more than doubled from the previous year, reaching a record high of almost $44bn, the Kyiv Independent cited Russian state-run media RIA Novosti as having reported.

The US has sought forfeiture of a $300m superyacht, Amadea, that it says is controlled by sanctioned billionaire Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov. The yacht was seized in Fiji and is docked in San Diego. The case is before court in Manhattan. Kerimov and his family are worth $10.7bn, according to Forbes.

A lioness rescued from a zoo in Ukraine could be rehomed in the UK with her cubs. BBC News reported that Aysa was pregnant when she was abandoned at a private zoo in the Donetsk region at the start of Russia’s invasion. She was moved to another facility and gave birth to cubs Teddi, Emi and Santa. All four are temporarily homed at Poznan zoo in Poland.

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German firebrand politician quits far-left Die Linke to set up her own party

Sahra Wagenknecht joined by nine other MPs in migration-sceptical party which will court unhappy voters on left and right

A leading German radical-left politician who has questioned the green transition and blamed the west for Russia’s war on Ukraine has left her party to set up a new one, in a move likely to cost the far right votes and further fragment the nation’s politics.

Sahra Wagenknecht, the charismatic former co-leader of the far-left Die Linke, said on Monday that the new association – named after herself – would court unhappy voters on the left and right, starting with next June’s European parliament elections.

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