In today’s newsletter: After events during the last few days, a nightmare scenario including Iran and the US is becoming ever more likely

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Good morning. So far, the war in Gaza prompted by Hamas’s 7 October attack has not precipitated the nightmare scenario – a wider Middle East conflict drawing in the US and Iran. But after events of the last few days, that risk appears to be becoming more serious.

The centre of the danger is in the Red Sea, where Houthi forces based in Yemen and backed by Iran have been attacking freighters with real or perceived links to Israel. The US has offered protection to shipping travelling through the region, assembling a multinational naval coalition “to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation”. But President Biden has said he wants to avoid direct military confrontation with the Houthis for fear of triggering an escalation.

Japan | Japan’s prime minister has said the country is facing a “battle against time” to rescue those affected by a series of major earthquakes which reportedly killed at least 30 people. With aftershocks expected over the next few days, residents of coastal areas were being told not to return to their homes.

Ofsted | Ofsted inspections will be halted until assessors have been properly trained in protecting the wellbeing of school staff, the watchdog’s new chief has announced, after the suicide of headteacher Ruth Perry.

Israel | Israel’s supreme court has overturned a law at the heart of Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial judicial overhaul project, potentially plunging the country into political crisis as it fights in Gaza. The judges ruled on Monday by a slim majority of eight to seven to throw out a law that curtailed the court’s own powers, saying it would severely damage Israel’s democracy.

NHS | NHS bosses fear patient safety could be compromised during this week’s junior doctors strikes if medics do not honour an agreement to abandon picket lines if hospitals become overwhelmed during the winter crisis. The NHS Confederation warning comes ahead of a six-day strike due to start on Wednesday.

Hong Kong | The media tycoon and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai has pleaded not guilty to all charges at his national security trial. Lai and his Apple Daily newspaper were key supporters of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, which saw mass protests across the city in 2019. He could face life imprisonment if convicted.