This was a supreme leader marshalling his minions for a decision that will change the security architecture in Europe and may well lead to horrific war
Sitting alone at a desk in a grand, columned Kremlin room, Vladimir Putin looked across an expanse of parquet floor at his security council and asked if anyone wished to express an alternative opinion.
He was met with silence.
Continue reading...‘Has the world forgotten its mistakes of the 20th century?’ asks Volodymyr Zelenskiy as invasion looms
Just 20 minutes walk from the ornate Hotel Bayerischer Hof, where world leaders gathered this weekend for the Munich security conference, lies No 12 Arcisstrasse, the shuttered brown ornamental building known as the Führerbau.
On a cold grey Sunday morning, the building, now temporarily closed and in disrepair, has a forbidding air. Near the steps at the front is a small plaque with the bare inscription in German, Czech and Slovak: “In this building, on 29 September, 1938, the Munich agreement was signed, which led to the smashing of the Czechoslovak republic.”
Continue reading...EU capitals concerned UK is not ensuring identity of real estate owners known in event of sanctions
Britain has frustrated its EU allies and weakened the west’s financial threat to the Kremlin by failing to close a loophole that will ensure London real estate remains a safe haven for Russian money, according to diplomatic sources in Brussels.
New legislation, described as the “toughest ever” by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, gives the UK government powers to freeze the assets of individuals linked to the Russian state in the event of an invasion of Ukraine but fails to “capture” property owned via anonymous offshore structures.
Continue reading...Russia is expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, but Ukraine’s armed forces will not be easily vanquished
Exploiting its overwhelming superiority in land, sea and air forces, Russia is expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, from the north-east, the Donbas and Crimea. Ground troops in Belarus, backed by airstrikes, would spearhead a lightning drive south to seize the capital, Kyiv. Ukraine’s encircled army would be forced, in theory, to surrender.
Continue reading...European Council urges Moscow to ‘de-escalate’ its military buildup; Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy says global security architecture is failing
The Kremlin has confirmed that Russian leader Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron will speak by phone on Sunday, the TASS news agency reported.
A second separatist leader, Leonid Pasechnik of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), has signed a decree calling for a full military mobilisation, according to Reuters.
Joe Biden has said he is ‘convinced’ that Vladimir Putin has ‘made the decision’ to invade Ukraine – an invasion that might come in the next days, based on US intelligence. The US president added it was not too late to reverse that decision: ‘Russia can still choose diplomacy. It is not too late to de-escalate and return the negotiation table.’
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is due to address a security conference in Munich on Saturday, despite US warnings that Russia might exploit his absence to topple him before he returns to Kyiv
Continue reading...Analysis: warnings of Russian invasion issued in bid to shape the narrative and win information war with Kremlin
British intelligence, so used to operating in the shadows, has been thrust into the spotlight during the Ukraine crisis, cited by Boris Johnson on Wednesday to warn that Russian troop numbers were still increasing or by the foreign secretary, Liz Truss, last month to warn of a possible coup in Kyiv.
As the crisis has intensified, the warnings have, if anything, become even less subtle. An extraordinary video released on Thursday by the Ministry of Defence, billed in capital letters as an “intelligence update”, included a Dad’s Army-style map showing a possible Russian invasion plan and other assessments aimed at the general public.
Continue reading...Russian state media say a blast has occurred in Donetsk amid multiple US warnings of false flag incidents
Sam Jones here, taking over from Samantha Lock.
One of today’s main events will be the Munich security conference, where world leaders including US vice-president Kamala Harris, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, will gather to discuss the crisis.
It’s tragic and we’ll see terrible scenes unfolding. You would expect that President Putin – who obviously can’t be taken at his word – is manufacturing some sort of trigger, or is in the process of executing the final stages of his plan to go into Ukraine.
(Via Australian Associated Press)
Continue reading...Analysis: evidence contrasts with statements from Russia that troops are being sent back to barracks
Britain believes that nearly half of Russian forces that have massed near Ukraine are now within 30 miles of the border, in contrast to statements from Moscow that its forces were being sent back to barracks.
Reinforcements from 14 battalions were in the process of arriving, officials added, while highlighting a pontoon bridge that had been briefly set up in Belarus in the past few days as an example of unusual military activity.
Continue reading...‘No certainty about Russia’s intentions’, warns Nato, after Ukraine government source says shelling ‘looks like provocation’
Some more detail has emerged regarding the denial from Ukrainian government forces over accusations of having targeted separatist positions in the country’s east. Ukraine says its troops were fired upon but did not retaliate.
A duty press officer of the Ukrainian Joint Forces Operation told Reuters by telephone:
Despite the fact that our positions were fired on with prohibited weapons, including 122mm artillery, Ukrainian troops did not open fire in response.
Continue reading...Nato secretary general sees ‘no sign of de-escalation on the ground’ and says organisation is developing options for bolstering eastern flank
Britain’s defence secretary has said Russia should be judged by its actions when it comes to de-escalating tension at the Ukraine border, adding he has not seen evidence of a withdrawal of troops.
Speaking in Brussels ahead of a meeting of Nato defence ministers, Ben Wallace told Sky News on Wednesday morning:
We’ll take Russia at its word, but we will judge them on their actions.
Until we see a proper de-escalation, we should all be cautious about the direction of travel from the Kremlin.”
Continue reading...Analysis: Experts have little faith in announcement and say there are no signs of de-escalation on Ukraine’s borders
A video of a handful of screeching tanks and lumbering armoured vehicles mounting a transport train in Crimea accompanied the Russian defence ministry’s trumpeted announcement that some of the forces that have been encircling Ukraine will “head for their garrisons”.
Such evidence is clearly far too tentative to amount to anything definitive, however. The movement of Russian forces towards Ukraine has been patiently documented by a group of open source intelligence analysts, relying on public domain information, including satellite imagery and a large supply of on the ground videos.
Continue reading...Analysis: recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk’s independence would be seen as considerable escalation
Russian lawmakers have passed a direct appeal to Vladimir Putin to recognise the Russian-controlled separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk, providing a way to up the ante in the regional crisis without launching an attack on Ukraine.
Putin has said he will not immediately recognise the so-called republics but he is likely to wield that option as a bargaining chip as he continues to demand security guarantees from the west.
Continue reading...German chancellor Olaf Scholz said preventing war in Europe is the 'damn responsibility' of heads of state and government as he met with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Putin in turn raised questions about Ukrainian membership of Nato but was engaged in ongoing diplomatic efforts around military buildup on the Ukrainian border
Continue reading...Tensions in Europe have risen in recent weeks amid fears Russia is planning to invade Ukraine.
So why has Russia amassed thousands of troops and weapons at its border with Ukraine? The Guardian's Moscow correspondent, Andrew Roth, looks at what Russian president, Vladimir Putin, may be hoping to achieve – and why now
Latest words from Scholz as he prepares to meet the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy:
We urgently expect signs of de-escalation from Moscow. Further military aggression would have very serious consequences for Russia. I absolutely agree with our allies on that. We are witnessing a very, very serious threat to peace in Europe.
“Ukraine is convening a meeting with Russia and all member states in the next 48 hours to discuss the reinforcement and movement of Russian forces along our border,” he wrote on Facebook.
I would like to emphasise once again that we are talking about the movement of Russian troops on Russian territory,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, once again accusing Ukraine of ramping up tensions.
“Large-scale movements of Ukraine’s armed forces are also carried out in the border zone on Ukrainian territory, moreover, in the area that borders on the territory of the self-proclaimed republics, which leads to escalation of the situation”
Continue reading...Move suggests Putin could extend crisis for weeks as Johnson and Biden agree ‘crucial window for diplomacy’ still exists
Russia is sending thousands more troops to its border with Ukraine in a sign that Vladimir Putin could extend the crisis for weeks, as Boris Johnson warned the situation had become “very, very dangerous”.
British officials estimate that a further 14 Russian battalions are heading towards Ukraine, each numbering about 800 troops, on top of the 100 battalions massed on the borders – a force already believed capable of launching an invasion.
Continue reading...Analysis: it is still unclear how far Russian president is willing to go to achieve his Ukraine goals
Almost a year ago, Russia began moving forces from Siberia and other regions to the border with Ukraine. With more than half of its land forces now poised for an attack, whether or not there will be a war with Ukraine hinges on the decision of Vladimir Putin, whose options range from a large-scale assault to a decision to hold his troops back or ultimately send them home.
At stake is a potentially devastating conflict, sanctions and economic hardship, and a verdict on the legacy of Putin, who has broadcast his decision to engage in brinksmanship with the west, saying that the tensions have a “definite effect” and should be maintained “as long as possible”.
Continue reading...Vladimir Putin could launch an invasion of Ukraine 'almost immediately', the foreign secretary has warned after chairing a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee. Liz Truss repeated a call for Britons to leave Ukraine because of the threat of war. She also defended her decision to travel to Moscow to meet her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, saying: 'The Russians didn’t like what I had to say, but I say it nevertheless, and I want them to desist, and I want them to be aware that there will be severe costs of an invasion'
Continue reading...Olaf Scholz will make economic case for peace to defuse ‘extremely dangerous’ situation in Ukraine
Olaf Scholz will use his trip to Moscow on Tuesday to press home the economic cost of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, German government sources have said in what some European leaders fear could be a last opportunity to defuse the “extremely dangerous” situation on the border between the two eastern countries.
The German chancellor, who has faced criticism at home for cutting a low-key profile in the diplomatic effort around the military buildup on the Ukrainian border until now, first arrives in Kyiv on Monday as US intelligence over the weekend claimed that Russia had accelerated plans for an invasion and could move troops across the border as soon as Wednesday, before the end of the Winter Olympics on 20 February.
Continue reading...