Russia and Turkey’s next moves will define the Syrian war’s end

Neither side can back down from proxy standoff, but Russia holds whip hand in Idlib

For more than three years, Russia and Turkey have been shadow boxing on the soils of northern Syria. In the past three weeks, the stalking has turned to shooting; the Turks aiming their guns at the Moscow-allied Assad regime, and the Russians increasingly swinging their turrets towards the Turkish military.

In a war fought largely through proxies, any direct conflict between main players was considered highly dangerous and, until Thursday night, unlikely. But after the deaths of at least 30 Turkish troops – most likely the consequence of a Russian airstrike – both sides are in a standoff from which neither can afford to back down.

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Greece and Bulgaria crack down on Turkish borders as refugees arrive

Move appears designed to put pressure on Europe to support Turkey’s Idlib operation

Hundreds of refugees in Turkey began arriving at the country’s borders with Greece and Bulgaria on Friday after Ankara suddenly indicated it would no longer block their passage to Europe.

The move prompted both neighbouring nations to shore up their borders as their governments insisted they would not allow anyone to enter. Greek police used smoke grenades at one border crossing, while Bulgaria sent an extra 1,000 troops to its frontier with Turkey.

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Syria: 21 dead as targets including schools and nurseries bombed in Idlib

Six schools and two nurseries reported targets of airstrikes by Assad regime and Russia

Eight school facilities have been bombed in Idlib province, in Syria, in a single day as the battle for control of the country’s last opposition stronghold intensifies.

The attacks came despite warnings that the violence has already led to the worst humanitarian crisis in the Syrian war to date.

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Idlib’s despair won’t end bloodshed in Syria. It will provoke a rebel fightback | Hassan Hassan

Freed from the need to defend their last stronghold, the jihadists there will be well placed to regroup and take the struggle underground

Outsiders can be forgiven for being tired of the Syrian conflict. After all, the violence has lasted for nearly a decade and the worst chapters – for outsiders, at least – have come and gone: Islamic State (Isis) seized almost half the country, in addition to one-third of Iraq and launched a global network of terror in 2014. But the world has now caught its breath and the threat has all but ended. Refugees, too, flooded Europe some years ago but the influx has been contained.

Also, expert warnings about a resurgence of violence or extremism did not materialise and the return of state control seems to be the steady trajectory of the conflict despite persistent problems. Most of the country is currently under the control of either the regime, Turkey or the United States-backed Kurdish forces in eastern Syria. Even in the Kurdish zone, many would concede that it might be just a matter of time before these areas are recaptured by Damascus, even without much fighting, if and when the US eventually ends its presence there.

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Gezi park verdict may be mere political ploy of isolated Ankara

Acquittals are welcome but not necessarily a signal of change at heart of government

One defendant in the Gezi park trial grimly predicted the expected results of Tuesday’s hearing would be the “funeral of civil society in Turkey”. But a surprise verdict led to applause and tears of joy as nine of the activists charged with terrorism offences for their alleged roles in organising the 2013 protests walked free from the Istanbul courthouse.

The unexpected acquittals of nine of the 16 defendants – lawyers say not guilty verdicts for the seven others being tried in absentia are also expected if they return to the country – were a rare spot of good news in Turkey, where the judicial system has been hollowed out and weaponised against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s opponents and critics.

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Syrian father teaches daughter to cope with shelling noise through laughter – video

In video posted on social media, Abdullah Mohammad and his daughter Salwa, three, can be heard laughing at the sound of shelling in Syria. Mohammad, who moved his family from Idlib to Sarmada district, has tried to insulate his daughter from trauma by telling her the noise of bombs is part of a game. In September 2018, Turkey and Russia agreed to turn Idlib into a de-escalation zone in which acts of aggression are prohibited, but since then more than 1,800 civilians have been killed in attacks by the Assad regime and Russian forces

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Turkish Gezi park activists acquitted of terror charges in surprise ruling

Arrest warrants lifted for seven other defendants being tried over nationwide protests

A Turkish court has acquitted nine activists accused of terror charges over their alleged involvement in Istanbul’s Gezi park protests, a landmark ruling in a case that has given new hope to Turkey’s beleaguered civil society in a country where many fear the rule of law is being steadily eroded.

Applause erupted in the courtroom and some people cried in disbelief when the decision was announced at a courthouse near the Silivri maximum security prison campus, on the outskirts of Istanbul, on Tuesday.

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‘Westlessness’: is the west really in a state of peril?

Top diplomats disagreed over the global relevance of the west at the Munich security conference

The chosen theme of the Munich security conference – once a party for Nato and now a Davos for the world’s diplomats – was “westlessness”. The organisers wanted to capture the fear that the west is now so divided and challenged by the rise of China its whole existence has become imperilled.

It was not a concept that won universal acclaim. Margrethe Vestager, the EU vice-president, hit back in one session: “I never thought about ’westlessness’ before. Are we here discussing our own depression and asking the rest of the world to join in as a sort of collective mindfulness exercise? I don’t really don’t get this.” European values – the rule of law and the integrity of the individual – had spread across the world, she insisted.

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Greece’s refugee plan is inhumane and doomed to fail. The EU must step in | Apostolis Fotiadis

The government wants to create massive detention centres, but this is being resisted by locals and refugees alike

Since the start of the year, Greece’s reception system for migrants has imploded. A spike of arrivals over the past few months, caused by Turkey’s police operations removing refugees and asylum seekers from its western coastal cities and sending them back to the regions where they were registered, has pushed the existing accommodation to its limits.

Between September 2019 and January 2020, the Greek government transferred 14,750 people from the islands to the mainland, as 36,000 new arrivals crossed the Aegean to Greece from Turkey. While the system is unable to absorb any more people, efforts to establish additional camps in the mainland and new detention centres on the islands have met strong resistance from local communities.

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Families trapped by Assad’s assault on Idlib fight to survive in the snow

Vast numbers of people are caught between regime bombings and closed Turkish border

Hundreds of thousands of civilians, many of them women and children, are stranded with little food or shelter in sub-zero temperatures in north-western Syria, forced from their homes by a Russian-backed military offensive that has often targeted hospitals and other civilian infrastructure.

The assault on Idlib, the last stronghold of the Syrian opposition, has created one of the greatest humanitarian crises of a long and brutal war. It has displaced more than 800,000 people since December, the United Nations said, 143,000 of them in the last three days alone.

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The Guardian view on Idlib: nowhere left to run | Editorial

Hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing a renewed assault by the Syrian regime, in desperate circumstances. Is anyone paying attention?

After the torture and massacre of civilians, after the targeted attacks upon rescuers, doctors and schools, after the barrel bombs and chemical weapons, it should be hard to believe that there could be a new wave of misery for Syria unleashed by Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers. Yet here it is. The assault on Idlib, the last rebel-held enclave, is the largest-scale humanitarian catastrophe of a war now in its ninth year. The United Nations has warned that 832,000 people, most of them children, have been displaced in less than three months; 100,000 people have fled in the past week. Many had already fled the Syrian regime’s murderous assaults before, in some cases three or four times; the province’s population has swelled from 1 million to 3 million since the war broke out. They face sub-zero temperatures, and many don’t even have tents in which to shelter. Doctors report children dying of exposure.

Conditions are likely to worsen. The frontlines are approaching Idlib city, probably sending further waves of families towards the closed Turkish border. Fighting has claimed the lives of both Turkish and Syrian troops, prompting the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to move in reinforcements and threaten: “In the event of the tiniest harm to our soldiers … we will hit regime forces in Idlib and anywhere else.”

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Syrian forces capture new areas from insurgents

Turkey sends in more troops to back rebels as weeks-long offensive displaces 600,000

Syrian government forces have captured new areas from insurgents in their offensive in the north-west, as Turkey sends more reinforcements into the country, state media and opposition activists said.

The weeks-long government offensive has created a humanitarian crisis with about 600,000 people having fled their homes in Syria’s last rebel stronghold since the beginning of December, according to the United Nations.

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Turkish Cypriot leader warns Cyprus is facing permanent partition

Mustafa Akıncı says differences between island’s two sides are growing more entrenched

The president of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus has warned the Mediterranean island faces permanent partition of its Greek and Turkish communities unless an agreement is swiftly reached involving an “equitable” federal solution.

In an interview with the Guardian, Mustafa Akıncı said the differences between the two sides were growing more entrenched every year, diminishing the prospect of reunification. “We need to hurry up. After all these years we have come to a crossroads, a decisive moment,” he said.

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500,000 flee Syrian regime’s deadly offensive in Idlib

Turkey intervenes, raising tensions, after weeks of aerial bombardment of rebel territory

More than half a million people have been displaced in Syria’s last rebel stronghold by a deadly regime offensive that has led Turkey to intervene in the fighting and has raised tensions between Damascus, Ankara and Moscow.

Weeks of intensive aerial bombardment by the forces of Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies and a bruising ground offensive have emptied entire towns in north-west Idlib province and sent huge numbers of civilians fleeing north towards the Turkish border.

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Syria: Half a million displaced in Idlib, says UN body

Almost 300 civilians have been killed since renewed bombardment in the region

A regime offensive in Syria’s last rebel enclave has caused one of the biggest waves of displacement in the nine-year war, as tensions spiked between Ankara and Damascus following a deadly exchange of fire.

Weeks of intensive aerial bombardment and a bruising ground offensive have emptied entire towns in northwest Idlib and sent huge numbers fleeing north towards the Turkish border.

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Syria: pro-Assad forces batter Idlib and spark fears of fresh crisis

Wave of airstrikes force 700,000 civilians to flee towards Turkish border

Syria’s last opposition-held province has been battered with 200 airstrikes in the past three days in an assault that has pushed 700,000 civilians to flee towards the Turkish border and sparked fears of an impending international crisis.

The strikes on north-west Idlib were carried out mainly against civilians, the US special envoy for Syria, James Jeffrey, said on Thursday.

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Greece defends anti-migrant floating barrier amid growing criticism

Minister says barrier would send message to smugglers that ‘rules of the game have changed’

The Greek government has defended plans to erect a floating barrier in the Mediterranean to deter thousands of people determined to reach Europe from making the sea journey from Turkey.

Dismissing criticism, the country’s minister for migration and asylum, Notis Mitarakis, said the proposed barrier in the Aegean Sea would send a strong message to people smugglers that the “rules of the game had changed”.

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The Guardian view on Libya and foreign interference: talking peace, shipping arms | Editorial

The north African country’s population have suffered years of turmoil, fuelled by the meddling of outside players. The civil war may yet escalate

Let’s all be good. This was, in essence, the conclusion of the conference in Berlin this month which aimed to at least begin the work of ending a war which has cost thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands of people in Libya. Participants agreed that foreign meddling should cease and that everyone should abide by the UN arms embargo.

Despite the desperate need for peace, there was good reason to be cynical. The host, Angela Merkel, argued publicly with the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, over what had actually been agreed. Fighting soon raged again. The UN refugee agency announced on Thursday that it is suspending all operations at a facility in Tripoli and moving refugees from the site, fearing for their safety and that of its staff and partners amid worsening conflict. The UN says that several participants in the Berlin meeting have since shipped both arms and mercenaries to Libya, blatantly violating the embargo.

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