Friday briefing: What Taiwan’s general election means for the country – and democracy worldwide

In today’s newsletter: Taiwan goes to the polls on Saturday, with major geopolitical ramifications on the line

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Before we start on Taiwan: late last night, US and UK forces launched air strikes involving at least 60 Houthi targets in 16 locations around Yemen. Joe Biden said he ordered the strikes “in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea”. The US president added that he would not hesitate to order further military action. Despite warnings from Washington in the new year that the Houthis would “bear the consequences” of any more attacks, this week the Iran-backed group had launched its most sophisticated and heaviest attacks to date.

Immigration and asylum | The government has admitted that Rwanda still has “issues with its human rights record” despite claims by Rishi Sunak that it is a safe country. The assessment has come in a “policy statement” sent by the home secretary to MPs and lords in an effort to get backing for the Rwanda bill.

Post Office scandal | Ministers need to “immediately” update the law to acknowledge that computers are fallible or risk a repeat of the Horizon scandal, legal experts say. In English and Welsh law, computers are assumed to be “reliable” unless proven otherwise. But critics of this approach say it reverses the burden of proof normally applied in criminal cases.

Finance | Millions of drivers could be in line for a payout, it has been suggested, after the UK financial watchdog opened an investigation into whether consumers had been unfairly charged inflated prices for loans on new and secondhand cars.

US | New York building officials have issued emergency work orders to stabilise a historic synagogue and its neighbouring structures after an illicit underground tunnel was discovered.

Health | Thousands of patients are being readmitted to NHS mental health units in England every year soon after being discharged, raising concerns about poor care, bed shortages and increased risk of suicide.

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Chinese satellite launch triggers emergency alert across Taiwan

Mistranslation of ‘satellite’ to ‘missile’ in message causes alarm and confusion days before presidential election

A Chinese satellite launch has triggered a nationwide emergency alert in Taiwan days before its presidential election, prompting alarm and confusion as the English portion of the message erroneously translated satellite to “missile”.

The bilingual air raid alert blasted over loudspeakers and was sent to every mobile phone in Taiwan shortly after 3pm local time (0700 GMT), warning people to “be aware”. The message said in Chinese that China had launched a satellite at 3.04pm and it had flown over the southern part of Taiwan. The English portion said “[air raid alert] missile flyover Taiwan airspace”.

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Taiwan braces for ‘big deal’ presidential election as China’s shadow looms

Corruption and the cost of living have trumped concerns about a belligerent neighbour in close race for the presidency

Deep in the mountains of Hsinchu county in north Taiwan, a few dozen residents of Smangus are holding their daily morning meeting in a weatherboard hut, overlooking the towering peaks nearby.

The remote Indigenous village, home to about 200 Atayal people, is preparing for Saturday’s presidential election. They take it very seriously, running their own polling station since 2008, and discussing candidates with all the residents.

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Taiwan considers joining ICC to deter potential China invasion

Joining court would allow investigation of Xi Jinping if he were to order act of war against Taiwan

Taiwan’s government is considering joining the international criminal court, in part to increase deterrence of a Chinese attack or invasion.

Supporters also say it would help universalise the international legal system, which has a low presence in Asia, and increase Taiwan’s global participation at a time when Beijing works to keep it as isolated as possible.

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Taiwan prepares to pick new president amid growing threat from China

Outcome of election scheduled for 13 January could lead to vastly different scenarios with Beijing next year

Taiwan’s election on 13 January is the first of more than 40 national elections to be held around the world in 2024. It will determine the presidency and legislature governing 23.5 million people on an island that is similar in size to Belgium. But it has major implications for the world.

There are a host of issues for Taiwan’s voters, including the cost of living, housing and labour rights, energy, education, and elderly care. Taiwan has an ageing population and there is a significant wealth gap, with low minimum wages. The domestic campaign so far has seen standard cross-party sniping over competing promises, accusations of misconduct and corruption, and endless scandals ranging from allegedly plagiarised theses to charges of secret second nationalities.

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China names former navy chief Dong Jun as new defence minister

Appointment comes two months after Li Shangfu was ousted from the role amid corruption allegations

China has announced the appointment of a new defence minister, two months after the previous office holder Li Shangfu was stripped from his position without explanation.

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress – China’s de facto legislature – announced on Friday that Dong Jun, 62, would be the new defence minister. Dong was most recently the chief of China’s navy.

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Chinese weather balloon spotted near Taiwan a month ahead of presidential election

Chinese military aircraft including 12 fighter jets also detected in Taiwan’s air defence zone in past 24 hours

Taiwan’s defence ministry has said that a Chinese balloon crossed the Taiwan Strait median line on Thursday, about a month before Taiwan’s presidential election.

The ministry of national defence (MND) earlier described it as a “surveillance balloon” but the defence minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng later told reporters at parliament: “our initial understanding is that it was a sounding balloon”.

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Taiwan president says China has too many problems to invade

Tsai Ing-wen says economic, financial and political challenges overwhelm Xi Jinping’s government, with international pressure also a deterrent

Taiwan’s president has said China is unlikely to attempt an invasion any time soon because it is “overwhelmed” by domestic problems.

Tsai Ing-wen made the remarks in an interview at the New York Times Dealbook Summit.

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Australian warship HMAS Toowoomba sailed through sensitive Taiwan Strait close to China

Incident comes after maritime altercation between Toowoomba and Chinese warship last week off Japan’s coast that injured navy divers

Taiwan says an Australian warship has sailed through the Taiwan Strait, the sensitive and narrow waterway that separates the democratically governed island from China.

The ship, which it did not name, entered the strait on Thursday and sailed in a southerly direction, the defence ministry said on Friday.

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Taiwan poll shows dip in US trust amid growing concern over China

Survey two months before presidential election reveals more than 80% of people think threat from Beijing has worsened

More than 80% of Taiwanese people think that the threat from China has worsened in recent years, while trust in the US has also declined in the past two years, in part because of the war in Ukraine damaging Washington’s credibility.

The results of a survey published this week reveal a portrait of Taiwanese society that is under increasing pressure as the self-governing island heads towards a presidential election in January that could have far reaching ramifications for its relationship with the world’s two biggest superpowers.

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Taiwan reports increased Chinese military drills nearby

Defence ministry detects nine Chinese aircraft crossing Taiwan Strait’s median line after tensions were a focus of Biden-Xi talks at Apec summit

Taiwan has reported renewed Chinese military activity including nine aircraft crossing the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait and warships carrying out “combat readiness patrols”.

Democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for the past four years of regular Chinese military patrols and drills near the island, as Beijing seeks to pressure Taipei over its sovereignty claims.

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Apec summit ends with unity on WTO reform but not Gaza or Ukraine

US gathering of Pacific Rim leaders most notable for meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, seen as a sign of easing China-US relations

Pacific Rim leaders have shown divisions over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza after a two-day summit of the Apec forum, while pledging support for reform of the World Trade Organization.

The 21 economies that make up the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum – among them Russia, China, the US and Australia – did not mention either conflict in their final joint communique. Instead an accompanying chair’s statement noted the bloc had “exchanged views on the ongoing crisis in Gaza”.

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Taiwan opposition parties deadlocked over presidential candidate

Two parties, KMT and TPP, are trying to decide which should field candidate for president and which for vice-president

A potential joint ticket for Taiwan’s presidency by the two main opposition parties was in disarray after the smaller of the two said no consensus had been reached on how to use opinion polls to make that decision.

After weeks of sometimes acrimonious talks on joining up for the presidential election, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the much smaller Taiwan People’s party (TPP) agreed on Wednesday to look at an aggregate of opinion polls to decide which party’s candidate would run as president and which as vice-president.

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‘Planet Earth is big enough for two’: Biden and Xi meet for first time in a year

US and Chinese presidents meet in San Francisco to discuss the economy, climate, military relations and Taiwan

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping met in California on Wednesday, exchanging handshakes and smiles as they embarked on face-to-face dialogues that both sides hope will stabilise US-China relations.

The US president opened his remarks by saying that tensions between the two countries should “not veer into conflict”.

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China tells UK to stop using trade to improve Taiwan ties

UK and Taiwan sign trade agreement they hailed as a first in fostering bilateral trade between Taiwan and Europe

China’s government has accused the UK of using trade cooperation “as an excuse” to enhance its ties with Taiwan, after the announcement of a bilateral trade talks agreement.

On Wednesday Taiwan’s representative to the UK, Kelly Hsieh, and his British counterpart based in Taipei, John Dennis, signed an enhanced trade partnership (ETP). The agreement paves the way for future talks on green energy, digital trade and investment, among other trade-based issues. The UK is Taiwan’s third-biggest trading partner in Europe and 21st largest overall.

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Taiwan election may open window for better China ties, report says

International Crisis Group urges all parties including US to re-establish a baseline level of trust

Taiwan’s presidential election in January is a window of opportunity to resume dialogue between Taipei and Beijing, reduce tensions and lower the risk of conflict, an NGO has said.

A war over Taiwan is not inevitable but “the current trajectory is dangerous”, a report by the International Crisis Group says.

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China launches tax investigations into Apple iPhone maker Foxconn

Tax audits and land use inquiries follow company founder announcing run for Taiwan presidency

China’s tax authorities have launched multiple investigations into the company that makes the iPhone, months after its billionaire founder announced he would run in Taiwan’s presidential elections.

Foxconn faces tax audits of its operations in China, as well as investigations into land use in two Chinese provinces, according to reports by local media.

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Australia cannot be ‘passive bystanders’ in a war between US and China, Richard Marles says

Defence minister says consequences of a conflict over Taiwan are ‘so grave’ and says status of island must be ‘arrived at peacefully’

A war between the United States and China over the future of Taiwan would be “so grave” that Australia cannot be “passive bystanders”, the defence minister has said.

Richard Marles pushed back at the idea advanced by some commentators – including the former Labor prime minister Paul Keating - that Taiwan is “not a vital Australian interest”.

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Weather tracker: Typhoon Koinu causes disruption in Taiwan

Heavy rain and strong winds force schools and businesses to shut and leaves thousands without power

Typhoon Koinu made landfall in southern Taiwan on Thursday morning, reaching the country as a category 4 typhoon on the Hengchun peninsula as the storm’s eye crossed over Eluanbi for about five minutes. At this stage, the maximum sustained winds were recorded at 135mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

By Thursday afternoon, the storm was 62 miles off the western coast of Eluanbi, with maximum sustained winds of 89mph. Despite weakening, Koinu is expected to reach coastal areas of southern China this weekend, and the city of Guangzhou has already cancelled some flights and trains.

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Taiwan records world’s third most powerful wind gust ever as Typhoon Koinu hits

Windspeed measuring device was destroyed as category four cyclone hit, injuring nearly 200 and creating waves up to seven metres high

A category four cyclone has produced one of the strongest wind gusts ever recorded worldwide, and injured almost 200 people as it crossed the southern tip of Taiwan early on Thursday.

Typhoon Koinu brought wind gusts of up to 95.2 metres per second, or 342.7km/h (212.9mph) when it crossed Taiwan’s outer Lanyu (Orchid) island on Wednesday night. The Central Weather Administration (CWA) told the Guardian it was the highest wind gust recorded in Taiwan since the organisation was founded in 1986. The gust destroyed the island’s anemometer, the CWA said.

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