What can we learn from Africa’s experience of Covid?

Though a hundred thousand people have died, initial predictions were far worse, giving rise to many theories on ‘the African paradox’

As Africa emerges from its second wave of Covid-19, one thing is clear: having officially clocked up more than 3.8m cases and more than 100,000 deaths, it hasn’t been spared. But the death toll is still lower than experts predicted when the first cases were reported in Egypt just over a year ago. The relative youth of African populations compared with those in the global north – while a major contributing factor – may not entirely explain the discrepancy. So what is really going on in Africa, and what does that continent’s experience of Covid-19 teach us about the disease and ourselves?

“If anyone had told me one year ago that we would have 100,000 deaths from a new infection by now, I would not have believed them,” says John Nkengasong, the Cameroonian virologist who directs the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Incidentally, he deplores the shocking normalisation of death that this pandemic has driven: “One hundred thousand deaths is a lot of deaths,” he says.

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Hundreds died in Axum massacre during Tigray war, says Amnesty

Group says soldiers killed hundreds of unarmed civilians in northern Ethiopian city

Hundreds of unarmed civilians were massacred in less than 48 hours by Eritrean troops during the war in the restive northern Ethiopian province of Tigray last year, Amnesty International has said.

The soldiers systematically killed hundreds of civilians in the northern city of Axum, opening fire in the streets and conducting house-to-house raids in a massacre that may amount to a crime against humanity, it said in a report.

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‘No way they’ll back out’: tensions rise amid Ethiopia opposition hunger strike

Supporters say the politicians are prepared to die as government stands firm, with human rights lawyers warning consequences ‘could be huge’

For two hours the doctors had waited outside the gates of Kaliti prison in Addis Ababa. Bekele Gerba, a leading Ethiopian opposition figure from the Oromo ethnic group, was very ill and due to be taken to hospital for treatment. The 60-year-old is one of 20 senior political detainees, including the most prominent, Jawar Mohammed, who have been on hunger strike for the past three weeks.

After a flurry of phone calls, the prison authorities informed the waiting medical team that the prisoner, who has hypertension, would not be going to hospital on Friday. “They wouldn’t let us provide the emergency medical care he needs,” said Dr Illili Jamal, who alleged that the order to keep him in his cell came from senior government officials.

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Margaret Snyder obituary

Founding director of Unifem, the United Nations development fund for women

When Margaret Snyder first started working for the UN in Addis Ababa in 1971, programmes for African women centred around healthcare and support for children. Snyder, who has died aged 91, established the first UN regional women’s programme to change that perception. She went on to launch the UN’s development fund for women (Unifem) and became affectionately known as the “UN’s first feminist”.

Her job in Ethiopia was to help establish a women’s programme at the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) to support women in their roles as farmers, entrepreneurs and often family breadwinners. The programme evolved into the African Training and Research Centre for Women (ATRCW).

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Can Addis Ababa stop its architectural gems being hidden under high-rises?

While Ethiopia’s ancient sites are valued, urban heritage is an afterthought in a city forced to expand ever upwards

Only rubble remains of the former home of Dejazmatch Asfaw Kebede, a member of Emperor Haile Selassie’s government. Built in the early 1900s, and inspired by Indian as well as Ethiopian architecture, the building was demolished in early January without the knowledge of Addis Ababa’s conservation agency, the Culture and Tourism Bureau.

Demolition and reconstruction are now the most common sights along Addis Ababa’s unrecognisably altered skeleton skyline. The collateral damage is the city’s heritage.

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Tributes paid to Ethiopian refugee farmer who championed integration in Italy

Agitu Ideo Gudeta, who was killed on Wednesday, used abandoned land to start a goat farming project employing migrants and refugees

Tributes have been paid to a 42-year-old Ethiopian refugee and farmer who became a symbol of integration in Italy, her adopted home.

Agitu Ideo Gudeta was attacked and killed, allegedly by a former employee, on her farm in Trentino on Wednesday.

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At least 102 killed in massacre in western Ethiopia after Abiy visit

Witnesses report knife and gun attacks and children shot by armed men after PM warning over continuing ethnic conflicts

More than 100 people have been killed in Ethiopia’s western region of Benishangul-Gumuz, in the latest massacre along ethnic lines in the country.

Witnesses and officials said that at least 102 people were killed in the attack early on Wednesday in the Metekel zone.

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‘Slaughtered like chickens’: Eritrea heavily involved in Tigray conflict, say eyewitnesses

Despite denials by Ethiopia, multiple reports confirm killings, looting and forcible return of refugees by Asmara’s forces

In early December, Ethiopian state television broadcast something unexpected: a fiery exchange between civilians in Shire, in the northern Tigray region, and Ethiopian soldiers, who had recently arrived in the area.

To the surprise of viewers used to wartime propaganda, the Tigrayan elders spoke in vivid detail of the horrors that had befallen the town since the outbreak of war between the federal government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the region’s longstanding ruling party, which was ousted from the state capital of Mekelle in late November.

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They risked all to cross the Red Sea. Now a cruel fate awaits in Yemen

Fleeing Ethiopia and Somalia, refugees made their way across the world’s busiest migration route, only to be left in the hands of smugglers in a lawless land

Saudi Arabia was Tigrit’s dream: a place where she could find work as a cleaner or maid, and send money back to her husband and young daughter in Ethiopia. Now, like hundreds of thousands of East Africans who have left home and travelled across the Red Sea in search of a better life, she finds herself stranded in Yemen instead.

“We’re stuck. I don’t have food or money for phone credit to call home. I don’t have anything,” she said, sitting on the floor in a building site with no electricity or running water on the edge of the desert.

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Diplomats back claims Eritrean troops have joined Ethiopia conflict

US official among sources saying soldiers from Eritrea are fighting in operations against Tigray People’s Liberation Front

A US official and other diplomatic sources have backed accusations that Eritrean soldiers are fighting alongside Ethiopian troops to help Abiy Ahmed’s government in the war on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), complicating an already dangerous conflict.

The claims made to Reuters, which interviewed several unidentified diplomats in the region and a US official, follow mounting allegations by Tigrayan leaders that Eritrea, long a rival of Ethiopia, had joined with Ethiopian forces against a common enemy despite denials from both nations.

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‘I saw people dying on the road’: Tigray’s traumatised war refugees

People who fled fighting in northern Ethiopia tell of atrocities and gruelling journey to Sudan

When Ethiopia’s army shelled Humera, a small agricultural city in Tigray, in mid-November, 54-year-old Gush Tela rushed his wife and three children to safety in a nearby town.

A few days later, he felt compelled to find out what had become of his home. As he approached the city on his motorbike, riding through the arid countryside, he said the stench of countless dead bodies filled the air.

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The Nobel peace prize winner fighting a war in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s prime minister was feted by the international community as a reformer and a peacemaker. Now, as the Guardian’s Jason Burke explains, he has launched a major military campaign in the north of his country that threatens the stability of the region

Just over a year ago, Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, was the toast of the international community. His peacemaking efforts with neighbouring Eritrea had been recognised with a Nobel peace prize and his domestic reforms were winning plaudits. This month, however, it is a different story.

The Guardian’s Africa correspondent Jason Burke tells Rachel Humphreys that Abiy Ahmed has launched a major military operation in the northern region of Tigray and imposed a state of emergency. He said he was responding to an attack on an army base by the region’s ruling party, the TPLF, which it has denied. On Saturday, government forces declared victory in the offensive after claiming to have entered the regional capital, Mekelle.

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Manhunt launched for Tigray leaders, say Ethiopian officials

Humanitarian workers say hospitals struggling to treat hundreds wounded in Mekelle

Ethiopian officials say police and soldiers have launched a manhunt for the leaders of the ruling party in Tigray, a day after announcing federal troops had taken over the capital of the restive northern region and military operations were complete.

Humanitarian workers said the city of Mekelle, which fell to federal forces with almost no resistance on Saturday, was quiet but that hospitals were struggling to treat hundreds of injured.

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Ethiopian troops in ‘full control’ of Tigray’s capital, says country’s PM

Abiy Ahmed claims Mekelle under command of federal forces and that operation in region now complete

Ethiopian troops are now in “full control” of Mekelle, the capital of the northern region of Tigray, the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, said on Saturday evening.

“With full command of the regional capital, this marks the completion of the Ethiopian National Forces’ last phase … The main operation is successfully concluded,” Abiy said.

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Ethiopia’s military to begin ‘final offensive’ against Tigray capital

PM Abiy Ahmed makes order after dissident local leaders reject ultimatum to surrender

Ethiopia’s prime minister has ordered federal military forces to launch a “final offensive” on the capital of the restive Tigray region after his 72-hour ultimatum for dissident local leaders to surrender expired.

In a statement posted on social media, Abiy Ahmed said great care would be taken to protect innocent civilians from harm and said efforts would be made by government troops to ensure the city of Mekelle, which has a population of 500,000, was not “severely damaged”.

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Rise and fall of Ethiopia’s TPLF – from rebels to rulers and back

Bloody offensive aims to eliminate Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which dominated for nearly 30 years

In the centre of Mekelle, the highland capital of Tigray, is a complex of memorials and museums. Under the hot sun, old armoured vehicles, jets and helicopters rust quietly. On the city’s wide avenues, statues commemorate the “martyrs” and the victories of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a small band of insurgents who became a guerrilla army, launched a successful rebellion and eventually ruled Africa’s second most populous country for almost 30 years.

This week federal Ethiopian forces have closed in on Mekelle in the final stages of a bloody offensive launched earlier this month by Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, with the aim of eliminating the TPLF as a political force.

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Ethiopian PM rebuffs mediation attempts as Tigray deadline nears

Abiy Ahmed faces growing calls to end conflict that threatens to destabilise eastern Africa

Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, has forcefully rejected efforts by international powers to bring hostilities in the north of the country to an end.

Abiy’s statement on Wednesday came hours before a deadline for the surrender of the leadership of the restive region of Tigray expires, after which federal troops have been ordered to attack its capital, Mekelle.

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As Ethiopia’s army declares daily victories, its people are being plunged into violence

Abiy Ahmed’s war against Tigrayan rebels endangers a fragile union whose collapse would destabilise the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia’s prime minister Abiy Ahmed has promised military victory in Tigray. He says he will capture the capital, Mekelle, and the leadership of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which he calls a criminal junta. If he succeeds, it will be a pyrrhic victory – prospects for peace, democracy and protection from famine in Ethiopia will be set back a generation.

There are artillery barrages, airstrikes, armoured assaults. The Ethiopian army announces a Tigrayan town captured every other day and this week it plans to surround Mekelle. But there’s something missing. We’re not seeing pictures of prisoners of war, recovered military equipment, or newly-captured towns with local people welcoming their liberators. Perhaps the TPLF evacuated the towns and retreated to the mountains. Or maybe there are things that Ethiopian TV doesn’t want the world to see.

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Analysis: why ‘final’ offensive may not end Ethiopian conflict

PM Abiy Ahmed has implied operation will soon be over, but many leaders have found their planned short wars will not end quickly

Within days, the conflict in the north-western Ethiopian region of Tigray may reach a bloody climax.

The fighting between federal forces and those loyal to the ruling party of the unsettled province has been chaotic and bitter. Hundreds have been killed – both combatants and civilians – and many thousands forced to flee their homes. Regional and international powers have looked on with increasing anxiety as violence threatens the stability of one of Africa’s most fragile regions.

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Ethiopian military warns Mekelle civilians ahead of assault on city

‘No mercy’ ultimatum stokes international concerns as conflict enters third week

Ethiopia’s military have warned civilians in the capital of the wartorn Tigray region to “free themselves” from rebel leaders or be offered “no mercy” in a coming assault on the city.

The Ethiopian military said tanks would be deployed to encircle Mekelle, the highland capital of the northern Tigray region, and that it may also use artillery on the city, state media reported on Sunday.

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