Monday briefing: Is Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest a sign of the ICC’s strength or its limitations?

In today’s newsletter: the former Philippines president was arrested and taken to The Hague after a tense standoff. It’s a much needed win for the international criminal court – but success is far from a given

Good morning.

Last Tuesday, chaos erupted at Manila’s main airport as authorities arrested the Philippines’ 79-year-old former president Rodrigo Duterte, who had arrived from Hong Kong. An arrest warrant issued in secret by the international criminal court (ICC) accused him of crimes against humanity for his alleged involvement in killings during his brutal “war on drugs”.

Benefits | Keir Starmer is to defy growing anger by driving through welfare cuts for some of the UK’s most severely disabled people, with an overhaul that could see more than 600,000 benefit claimants lose out on an average of £675 a month.

Ukraine | Donald Trump has said he plans to discuss ending the war in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and that negotiators have already discussed “dividing up certain assets”. “We will be talking about land. We will be talking about power plants,” Trump said, when asked about concessions.

Space | A pair of US astronauts stuck for more than nine months on the International Space Station will be returned to Earth on Tuesday evening, Nasa has said. Barry “Butch” Wilmore and Suni Williams are to be transported home with another American astronaut and a Russian cosmonaut after a SpaceX Crew Dragon craft arrived at the ISS early on Sunday.

Business | Buy-to-let has become the largest single type of business in the UK – nearly four times as prevalent as fast food takeaways or hairdressers.

Healthcare | The health secretary, Wes Streeting, has said he believes there is an “overdiagnosis” of some mental health conditions as well as “too many people being written off” – factors he said were key to the government’s welfare measures.

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Why EU capitals are still arguing over more military aid to Ukraine – Financial Times

  1. Why EU capitals are still arguing over more military aid to Ukraine  Financial Times
  2. Lithuania backs plan to double EU military aid for Ukraine  Reuters
  3. 'Plan A is get the shooting to stop' — Rubio says as US pushes for ceasefire in Ukraine.  Kyiv Independent
  4. EU Progressing on €40 Billion Military Aid Plan for Kyiv  Bloomberg
  5. Italy, Spain Not Ready to Back EU Plan to Boost Ukraine Military Aid  U.S. News & World Report
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Why Bhutan May Make Trump’s Travel Ban List – Skift Travel News

  1. Why Bhutan May Make Trump’s Travel Ban List  Skift Travel News
  2. Draft List for New Travel Ban Proposes Trump Target 43 Countries  The New York Times
  3. Yale warns international students new Trump travel ban may be imminent  The Guardian US
  4. Do not travel outside the US unless absolutely necessary! advise immigration attorneys  The Times of India
  5. Travel warning for Green Card, H-1B, F-1 visa holders: Don't leave the country unless absolutely needed  The Economic Times
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Breakingviews – Russia’s economy would struggle to cope with peace – Reuters

  1. Breakingviews - Russia’s economy would struggle to cope with peace  Reuters
  2. There’s no money to be made in Russia  Financial Times
  3. How Russia’s Economy Has Survived Putin’s War  Bloomberg
  4. The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse and Putin needs a deal more than ever  The Independent
  5. OPINION: The Decline of the Russian Economy  Kyiv Post
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U.S. to Withdraw From Group Investigating Responsibility for Ukraine Invasion – The New York Times

  1. U.S. to Withdraw From Group Investigating Responsibility for Ukraine Invasion  The New York Times
  2. Trump Live Updates: Deportation Flight Hearing, Biden Pardon Claims and More  The New York Times
  3. Trump administration pulls US out of body investigating Ukraine invasion  The Guardian US
  4. US withdraws support from EU-led war crimes investigation into Russia and Putin over Ukraine invasion: Rep  The Economic Times
  5. US to Pull Out of Task Force Probing Russian Aggression in Ukraine  Newsweek
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With forced withdrawal, Russia takes away Ukraine’s Kursk cards – Responsible Statecraft

  1. With forced withdrawal, Russia takes away Ukraine's Kursk cards  Responsible Statecraft
  2. Ukraine’s army escapes from Kursk by the skin of its teeth  The Economist
  3. Russian troops battle last Ukrainian forces in Kursk region  Reuters
  4. Vladimir Putin says Ukraine must surrender after Donald Trump calls for soldiers to be spared  ABC News
  5. Russia Overpowers Bold Ukrainian Military Venture in Kursk  The Wall Street Journal
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Italy one of five ‘dismantlers’ causing ‘democratic recession’ in Europe, report says

Civil liberties report warns that Italy along with Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovakia intentionally undermining rule of law ‘in nearly all aspects’

Italy’s government has profoundly undermined the rule of law with changes to the judiciary and showed “heavy intolerance to media criticism”, in an emblematic example of Europe’s deepening “democratic recession”, a coalition of civil liberties groups has said.

A report by the Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties) said Italy was one of five “dismantlers” – along with Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovakia – that “intentionally undermine the rule of law in nearly all aspects”.

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Waltz confirms US airstrikes ‘took out’ multiple Houthi leaders – The Hill

  1. Waltz confirms US airstrikes ‘took out’ multiple Houthi leaders  The Hill
  2. Trump orders strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and issues new warning  The Associated Press
  3. 'Second time in 24 hours': Iran-backed Houthis claim another attack on US ships  The Times of India
  4. US vows to keep hitting Houthis until shipping attacks stop  Reuters
  5. Transcript: Secretary of State Marco Rubio on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," March 16, 2025  CBS News
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Serbian officials deny illegal sonic weapon attack on peaceful protesters – The Associated Press

  1. Serbian officials deny illegal sonic weapon attack on peaceful protesters  The Associated Press
  2. Serbia denies using sonic device as footage shows protesters fleeing  ABC News
  3. Protest Against Serbian Leader Draws Over 100,000 in Biggest Crowd Yet  The New York Times
  4. Protesters flood Belgrade in one of biggest anti-government rallies  Reuters
  5. Netanyahu's Nightmare Is Playing Out on the Streets of Belgrade. Can It Happen in Israel?  Haaretz
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Peace deal must bar Ukraine from Nato, Russian official says – BBC.com

  1. Peace deal must bar Ukraine from Nato, Russian official says  BBC.com
  2. Russia wants 'ironclad' guarantee that Ukraine will be barred from NATO: official  Fox News
  3. Russia Responds To Plan for Peacekeepers in Ukraine  Newsweek
  4. Russia seeks NATO exclusion in Ukraine's peace treaty  The Hindu
  5. Putin Aide Warns NATO Against Sending Peacekeepers To Post-war Ukraine; 'Declaration Of War...'  The Times of India
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