More than a year ago, when U.S. Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer began angling for the 2018 U.S. Senate nomination just as President Donald Trump commenced a fitful start, there was the big question: Are you sure you want to give up safe House seats to run in a first Trump mid-term? MSNBC's Steve Kornacke provided the grist: Since 1998, incumbent senators in "hostile states" were 21-3.