Friday briefing: ​As Israel’s coalition collapses, can its prime minister hang on to power?

In today’s newsletter: As ​the polls tighten a​​round Benjamin Netanyahu, the coming months may redefine Israel’s political order without resolving its most entrenched conflicts

Good morning. On Wednesday, Israeli legislators took the first steps towards dissolving parliament and calling fresh nationwide elections. Leading leftwing Knesset member Yair Golan hailed it “the beginning of the end of the worst government in Israel’s history.” Benjamin Netanyahu has spent 20 of the last 30 years as Israel’s prime minister, the last four of which have seen him helm a far-right coalition.

Under the incumbent government, settlement building in the illegally occupied West Bank has accelerated, while many international humanitarian NGOs have been banned from the Palestinian territories. Following Hamas’s killing of 1,200 Israelis on 7 October 2023, Netanyahu has orchestrated a campaign of violence in Gaza, killing or injuring more than 10% of the population, and flattening the strip in what a UN commission has declared a genocide. Netanyahu remains on trial for three counts of corruption.

UK news | The parents of a girl critically injured in the Southport attack were allowed no more than 12 counselling sessions after the atrocity, while others described a “woeful” lack of support.

UK politics | Sadiq Khan has blocked a £50m Metropolitan police deal with the controversial US tech company Palantir, sparking a bitter row between the London mayor and Scotland Yard.

Israel | Israel has said it has deported all the foreign activists it seized from a Gaza-bound flotilla, after a global outcry over their treatment in custody.

UK news | Single-sex toilets and changing rooms in England, Wales and Scotland must exclude transgender men and women, according to a new code of practice from the equalities watchdog.

Ukraine | Ukrainian drones hit the Syzran oil refinery more than 800km inside Russia, setting it on fire, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday.

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Israel deports foreign Gaza-bound flotilla activists after global outcry

Move comes amid condemnation of Itamar Ben-Gvir after video posted showing detained protesters being taunted

Israel has said it has deported all the foreign activists it seized from a Gaza-bound flotilla, after a global outcry over their treatment in custody that led the UK to join other countries in summoning Israeli diplomats for a formal dressing down.

More than 430 activists from countries around the world had been placed in detention in Israel after they were intercepted at sea on Monday while making the latest in a string of attempts to break the blockade of the Palestinian territory.

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Oil markets nearing ‘red zone’ as Iran crisis continues, warns IEA chief

Surging demand, low reserves and reduced Middle East exports predicted to cause global crunch by August

Oil markets will enter the “red zone” by July and August as stocks dwindle before the summer travel season amid a shortage of fresh oil exports from the Middle East, the executive director of the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday.

Fatih Birol added that the most important solution to the Iran war energy shock was a full and unconditional reopening of the strait of Hormuz.

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Israeli security minister stirs diplomatic outrage with flotilla activist abuse video

Far-right figure Itamar Ben-Gvir shares footage of himself taunting bound international detainees

Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has sparked a diplomatic crisis by publishing footage of Israeli security forces abusing international activists who were detained as they tried to sail to Gaza with aid.

Three activists were taken to hospital as result of Israeli violence, lawyers representing the group said. They were subsequently discharged. Dozens of others have suspected broken ribs, resulting in breathing problems.

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Trump may see himself in Ahmadinejad but having him lead Iran was a perplexing idea

Former Iranian president has a populist, headline-grabbing communication style but is an avowed anti-Zionist. How could Israel see him as a man to do business with?

For all their outward differences, there always seemed to be things that linked Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Donald Trump.

A visit to the then Iranian president’s rather humble Tehran neighbourhood nearly 20 years ago highlighted cost of living problems that prefigured those facing Trump now.

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US and Israel ‘hoped to install Ahmadinejad as Iran’s leader’

Airstrike at the start of the war was aimed at freeing populist ex-president from house arrest, US newspaper claims

Fresh questions have been raised over the US and Israeli effort to depose the Iranian regime after it was claimed that Israel wanted to put the populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in power.

Ahmadinejad’s turbulent presidency, from 2005 to 2013, was marked by incendiary attacks on Israel but he recast himself as a critic of the regime and champion of the poor after falling out with the supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

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Israeli strikes on Lebanon kill at least 19 as clashes with Hezbollah continue despite ceasefire

Single strike on the village of Deir Qanoun al Nahr in the coastal Tyre province killed 10, including three children and three women, health ministry says

Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon on Tuesday killed at least 19 people, including four women and three children, Lebanon’s health ministry said, the latest in near-daily attacks from both sides that have not stopped despite a fragile, US-brokered ceasefire.

Israel’s military did not immediately comment on the casualties or specific incidents, but said that between Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, it had targeted more than 25 sites of Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

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Trump turns to Middle East allies as deal to end Iran war proves elusive

President claims planned Tehran attack postponed to allow talks to continue – but no indication peace plan is imminent

As he seeks an exit from the Iran war, Donald Trump is increasingly outsourcing his policymaking to US allies in the Middle East, while the White House appears unable to find a simple way to end the fighting and reopen global shipping lanes held by Tehran.

In Trump’s telling, the “dealmaker-in-chief” has maintained a consistent policy toward Iran aimed at preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, leveling threats and incentives to reach a new deal that would also open the strait of Hormuz.

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Trump threatens ‘a big hit’ if Tehran does not make deal soon

Renewed threat comes after US president said he was ‘an hour away’ from ordering a strike before pulling back

Donald Trump has again threatened Iran, saying the US may launch new attacks if Tehran continues to refuse the significant concessions he wants before a deal can be struck to end the Middle East war.

The US president said he had called off a fresh wave of strikes, which would have broken the ceasefire in place since early last month. “I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Trump said on Tuesday.

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Strike near UAE reactor revives concerns over nuclear plant safety in wartime

Attack marks first time military action has forced a fully operating nuclear power plant to rely on backup generators

Middle East crisis – live updates

A drone strike that cut off external power to a nuclear reactor in the United Arab Emirates this week has revived concerns over the safety of nuclear plants during wartime.

Reactor no 3 at the Barakah nuclear plant lost vital off-site power for about 24 hours after the attack on Sunday, forcing it to rely on emergency diesel generators.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran warns it will ‘open new fronts’ against US if attacks resume after Trump suspends strikes

The US president said he called off a planned attack on Iran on Tuesday so that peace talks could continue

Iran’s army has warned it would “open new fronts” against the US if it resumes attacks on the country amid reports that Donald Trump is weighing up restarting military operations in Iran amid an impasse in negotiations.

“If the enemy is foolish enough to fall into the Zionist trap again and launches new aggression against our beloved Iran, we will open new fronts against it, with new equipment and new methods,” army spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia said, according to Iran’s ISNA news agency.

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‘Huge milestone’ as Libyan militia commander accused of torture appears at ICC

Prosecution is seen as landmark step towards justice over abuses of refugees trying to reach Europe from Africa

A former militia commander accused of overseeing murder, rape, enslavement and torture in Libyan detention centres has appeared at the international criminal court for a hearing that campaigners say is a landmark step towards “justice, truth, reparation and deterrence” of abuses of refugees trying to reach Europe from Africa.

The prosecution of Khaled Mohamed Ali El Hishri on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity is the first to reach a courtroom resulting from the ICC’s investigation into crimes in Libya after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

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‘Come in for one minute’: exhibition showing horrors of 7 October attacks opens in London

Commemoration of atrocity at Nova music festival confronts those who deny its gravity, says Elkana Bohbot

Two police vans waited expectantly near the front entrance. Officers patrolled the pavements while suited security men with ear pieces stood stern-faced, casting suspicious looks at those approaching. The location in east London had not been disclosed until that morning but no chances were being taken.

It was not for a visiting dignitary or even an embassy of a country in conflict that all this was deemed necessary but the Nova exhibition, a commemoration of the 378 people massacred at a music festival on 7 October along with the 44 taken as hostages and the 19 of those who died in Hamas captivity.

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‘Disposable’ operatives for hire are a new menace for western countries

A court case in New York has highlighted how Iran is using technology to recruit agents who may not even be regime supporters

When on Friday a 32-year-old Iraqi was brought before a court in New York to be charged with planning to attack Jewish community sites in the US, a curtain was suddenly lifted on a corner of a shadowy world.

The detention of Mohammed Saad Baqer al-Saadi in Turkey last week revealed rare details of Iran’s efforts to use terrorism to sow discord among communities in Europe, the UK and the US – but also the outlines of an uncertain and threatening future.

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Middle East crisis live: Trump warns ‘clock is ticking’ for Iran to reach peace deal

US president says there ‘won’t be anything left’ of country if it doesn’t come to an agreement

Oman’s foreign ministry has condemned the drone strike that caused a fire at the perimeter of UAE’s Barakah nuclear power plant on Sunday.

In a statement shared to X, the ministry expressed its solidarity with the UAE but stressed that it rejected all “hostile and escalatory acts” as it urged for dialogue to address regional issues and called for international law to be respected by all parties.

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UAE blames Iran or proxies for strike near nuclear plant, as Trump tells Tehran ‘clock is ticking’

Abu Dhabi denounces ‘dangerous escalation’ as Iran war ceasefire grows more precarious, and US president voices impatience at stalemate

The United Arab Emirates has blamed a fire near its nuclear power plant on a drone launched by Iran or one of its proxies in what the UAE called a “dangerous escalation”.

The fire was just outside the Barakah nuclear plant and caused no injuries or radiation alerts, with the emirate’s nuclear regulator saying there was no radioactive leak or risk to the public.

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Israeli strikes kill six in southern Lebanon hours after extension of ceasefire

Three paramedics at health centre among dead, while Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad killed in Gaza strike

Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing at least six people, including three paramedics working at a health centre, just hours after its envoys had agreed with the Lebanese government to extend a ceasefire.

Israel also said it had killed the Hamas military chief, Izz al-Din al-Haddad, in a targeted strike in Gaza on Friday.

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Shaky truce between Israel and Lebanon extended for 45 days, US says

Statement following ‘productive’ talks in Washington comes as Israel launches strikes on southern city of Tyre

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 45-day extension of their ceasefire after another round of talks in Washington, the US state department has said.

It came after two “productive” days of talks, and more negotiations would be held from 2-3 June, the department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said.

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‘Extremely cruel and tragic’: Iranian director Asghar Farhadi speaks out against state violence and the war

The film-maker, who won the Grand Prix for A Hero in 2021, condemned both the killing of protesters and the conflict’s bombing campaigns during a Cannes press conference

Oscar-winning Iranian director Asghar Farhadi has described the deaths of civilians in Iran as “extremely cruel and tragic” during a press conference at the Cannes film festival.

Farhadi, whose new Paris-set drama Parallel Tales premiered on the Croisette on Thursday night, was asked about working free from censorship in France, the war involving Iran, the US and Israel, and the repression of protesters in his native country.

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Oman caught between US and Iran after Tehran’s claims of joint strait of Hormuz plan

Muscat silent about plans – opposed by US – to charge fee and demand details on nationality of all transiting ships

Oman has been caught in geopolitical crossfire after Iran said it was coordinating with the Gulf state over the future management of the strait of Hormuz, including Tehran’s plans to impose fees on commercial shipping.

The Omani exclave of Musandam lies to the south of the contested waterway, which normally carries a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil traffic but has been blockaded for 10 weeks since the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February.

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