Middle East conflict risks sharp rise in oil prices, says IMF

In the UK, anxiety over the crisis after Iran’s missile strike on Israel drives down UK shares

An escalating Middle East conflict risks leading to higher oil prices, a reversal of the recent fall in inflation and a puncturing of the optimistic mood in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

The Washington-based IMF said it was closely monitoring events in the region after Iran’s missile strike on Israel at the weekend and stressed the possibility that a war between the two countries could lead to higher interest rates.

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Middle East crisis: Israel says Iran won’t get off ‘scot-free’ after missile attack – as it happened

This live blog is now closed. For news on tensions between Israel and Iran, read our latest story:

A senior spokesperson for Iran’s military has warned the US, UK, France and Germany to stop supporting Israel, and said that there will be an even stronger response from Iran if Israel retaliates to the strikes at the weekend.

The official state news agency IRNA reports that Brig Gen Abolfazl Shekarchi said:

We remind the heads of state of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany to stop supporting the declining child-killing terrorist regime of Israel. The Islamic Republic of Iran has proven that it is not a warmonger and does not seek to spread the war. The response will be stronger if the regime carries out more severe aggressive act.

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US to impose new sanctions against Iran after its air attack on Israel

National security adviser Jake Sullivan made the announcement as EU considers similar moves

The US has said it will impose sanctions aimed at Iran’s missile and drone programme as well as the Revolutionary Guard and defence ministry in the next few days, and expects its allies to follow suit, in the wake of Tehran’s large-scale air attack on Israel at the weekend.

The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, made the announcement on the same day Germany said it expected concerted EU sanctions, as the allies rushed to punish Iran economically while urging Israel not to launch military reprisals that could ignite an all-out war. Sullivan also said that a regional air defence and early warning system would be expanded to help defend against future attacks.

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UN demands end to Israeli forces’ support of settler attacks on West Bank Palestinians

UN human rights office expresses concern over escalating violence after deaths near Nablus over weekend

The UN and the UK have voiced grave concern over escalating violence in the West Bank, demanding that Israeli security forces “immediately” stop supporting settler attacks on Palestinians in the occupied territory.

The comments came hours after two Palestinian men were killed by Israeli settlers in a northern village south of Nablus in the latest violent attack involving settlers in the increasingly tense West Bank.

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Artists refuse to open Israel pavilion at Venice Biennale until ceasefire is reached

Curators protesting against Gaza conflict say ‘art can wait but women, children and people living though hell cannot’

The artists and curators of the Israeli national pavilion at the Venice Biennale have announced their decision not to open until “a ceasefire and hostage release agreement is reached” in the conflict in Gaza, on the opening preview day of the largest and most prominent global gathering in the art world.

A sign on the front of the Israel pavilion in the Giardini, or public gardens, in Venice, one of the main venues for the Biennale, conveyed the team’s decision – while the pavilion itself is guarded by three armed Italian military personnel.

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Israeli settlers kill two Palestinians in West Bank, officials say

Violence is reported to have escalated after a 14 year old Israeli shepherd went missing in the West Bank on Friday

Israeli settlers have killed two Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, according to Palestinian officials, after a weekend of escalating violence across the territory.

The Palestinian health ministry named the victims of the attack near Nablus as Abdulrahman Maher Bani Fadel, 30, and Mohammed Ashraf Bani Jame, 21, according to the official Palestinian news agency Wafa.

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Roads blocked as thousands protest in US against Israel’s attack on Gaza

Flights delayed and traffic disrupted as protesters in major US cities intensify call for ceasefire in Gaza

Thousands of people held protests across the US on Monday condemning Israel’s attack on Gaza, shutting down airports and disrupting traffic in major cities from New York to San Francisco.

A portion of the Kennedy Expressway into Chicago O’Hare international airport, one of the US’s busiest, was blocked off by protesters calling for an end to the violence.

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IDF chief of staff says Israel will respond to Iran missile attack

General gives clearest confirmation yet that Israel will hit back but it is unclear what form response will take

Israel’s top general has said the country will respond to Iran’s missile and drone attack, but it remains unclear what form that response will take and whether it will be so forceful that it could tip a worsening spiral of violence into a full-scale regional war.

US officials said on Monday that some form of counter to Iran’s attack, which involved more than 300 missiles and drones, was almost inevitable, but the Biden administration was still hoping it would be a limited counterstrike and not aimed at Iranian territory.

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Jordan faces difficult balancing act amid row over role in downing Iranian drones

Amman and allies insist Jordanian actions were self-defence after public anger at home and across region

Jordan has found itself caught in the crosshairs of the confrontation between Iran and Israel, facing public anger at home and in the region for its role in downing dozens of Iranian drones targeting Israeli territory on Saturday night.

Underlying its precarious position, Amman summoned the Iranian ambassador on Sunday over comments from Tehran that appeared to threaten Jordan for joining the US-led effort to support Israel in shooting down the incoming salvo. The diplomatic summons came after Iran seemed to warn Jordan that it would face an attack of its own if it continued to defend Israel.

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Sunak says ‘all sides should show restraint’ after Iranian attack on Israel – as it happened

British PM says he will speak to Netanyahu to express solidarity and discuss how further escalation can be avoided

UK general election opinion poll tracker: Labour leading as election looms

David Cameron ruled out trying to become PM again in an interview this morning. (See 9.30am.) But Liz Truss has not done so. In an interview with LBC’s Iain Dale, being broadcast tonight, she did not entirely dismiss the possibility. This is from LBC’s Henry Riley.

Truss is giving interviews to publicise her memoir which is out this week. According to extracts sent out in advance, she also confirmed in her LBC interview that she wanted to see Donald Trump win the US presidential election. She said:

I don’t think [Joe] Biden has been particularly supportive to the United Kingdom. I think he’s often on the side of the EU. And I certainly think I would like to see a new president in the White House …

The thing I would say about Donald Trump is, because I served as secretary of state under both Trump and Biden, and Trump’s policies were actually very effective. If you look at his economic policies, and I met his regulatory czar, I travelled around the United States looking at what he’d done. He cut regulation, he cut taxes, he liberated the US energy supply. And this is why the US has had significantly higher economic growth than Britain.

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Four Israeli soldiers injured by Hezbollah bombs inside Lebanon

One soldier seriously wounded as IDF crosses border in apparent first acknowledged breach since Gaza war began

Four Israeli soldiers have been injured inside Lebanon, one seriously, after being hit by bombs planted by Hezbollah.

The incident was confirmed by the Israel Defense Forces and came after the Lebanese Shia group said it had ambushed Israeli troops.

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Europe: Sudan war ‘world’s worst child displacement crisis,’ Paris conference told – as it happened

Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, says ‘every life counts equally, whether in Ukraine, in Gaza, or in Sudan’

The UN high commissioner for human rights, Volker Türk, has warned of a further escalation in violence in Sudan.

“The Sudanese people have been subjected to untold suffering during the conflict which has been marked by indiscriminate attacks in densely populated areas, ethnically-motivated attacks, and a high incidence of conflict-related sexual violence. The recruitment and use of children by parties to the conflict are also deeply concerning,” Türk said in a statement today.

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France joins western allies in calling for Israel to avoid escalation after Iran attack – as it happened

Emmanuel Macron says Iran should face international isolation and reasserts his country’s support for Israel

It’s being reported that Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials say that Iran gave wide notice days before its drone and missile attack on Israel – but US officials are disputing that line and say Tehran was aiming to cause significant damage.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Sunday that Iran gave neighbouring countries and the United States 72 hours’ notice it would launch the strikes, according to the Reuters news agency.

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UK Foreign Office holding secret talks with Sudan’s RSF paramilitary group

Exclusive: Rights groups denounce negotiations with Rapid Support Forces, accused of ethnic cleansing and war crimes

Foreign Office officials are holding secret talks with the paramilitary group that has been waging a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Sudan for the past year.

News that the British government and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are engaged in clandestine negotiations has prompted warnings that such talks risk legitimising the notorious militia – which continues to commit multiple war crimes – while undermining Britain’s moral credibility in the region.

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Monday briefing: The calculations and confusion that could lead Iran and Israel into all-out war

In today’s newsletter: Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, explains the internal dynamics in Tehran, and what Israel and America may do next

Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition

Good morning. For the first time, Iran has launched a direct attack against Israel from its own soil – and the Middle East stands closer to an all-out regional war than at any point since 7 October.

Tehran has claimed that it now views the exchange, prompted by an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, as over. The United States, meanwhile, said that it does not seek war with Iran. The crucial question is whether Benjamin Netanyahu feels the same way – and while two members of his war cabinet signalled on Sunday night that there would be no immediate response, there was no word from the prime minister himself.

Disability | The rollout of universal credit is on course to make thousands of working-age disabled people significantly poorer, a new report has warned. A single person with a long-term disability that prevents them from working is £2,800 a year worse off when they transfer to universal credit (UC), the Resolution Foundation said.

Sydney stabbings | The family of the Bondi Junction attacker have described his actions as “truly horrific”, offered condolences to the loved ones of the victims and expressed support for the police officer who ended the attack by shooting him dead. Police say Joel Cauchi had mental health problems and moved from Queensland to New South Wales a month before he killed six people in Sydney on Saturday.

Health | The British government was willing to risk infecting NHS patients to get “lower-priced” blood products, according to a document that campaigners claim proves state and corporate guilt in one of the country’s worst ever scandals. Internal company minutes produced by Immuno AG in 1976 say that “the British market will accept a higher risk of hepatitis for a lower-priced product”.

Childcare | England’s childcare system is falling behind those of much of the rest of the world, a UK charity for gender equality and women’s rights has said. A report by the Fawcett Society found that the English system was “crumbling” in comparison to other countries undergoing significant reform.

Theatre | Jamie Lloyd’s bombastic reimagining of Sunset Boulevard was the standout show at this year’s Olivier awards, with seven wins including best actress in a musical for Nicole Scherzinger. Mark Gatiss and Sarah Snook also won acting awards, while best new play went to James Graham’s football drama Dear England. See pictures from the ceremony.

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Iran attack puts pressure on US House speaker to pass aid bill for Israel and Ukraine

Mike Johnson has said he will aim to advance legislation to support Israel but has not clarified whether Ukraine funding will form part of package

The US House speaker, Mike Johnson, has said he will aim to advance a bill for wartime aid to Israel this week following Iran’s weekend attack, but did not clarify whether Ukraine funding would be part of the package.

US assistance for both nations has languished amid political bickering in Congress, with Johnson – an ally of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump – blocking an earlier $95bn in aid sought by President Joe Biden for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan which had passed the Senate.

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Israel on high alert as it weighs response to Iranian attack

Israel signals it will not immediately act alone, while US states it would not take part in any counter-offensive against Tehran

Israel is weighing its response to Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone assault on its territory, signalling on Sunday night that it would not immediately act alone, but insisting its forces remained on high alert and that the leadership had approved both “offensive and defensive action”.

Two members of Israel’s three-man war cabinet made statements suggesting they were taking a longer-term view of the response to Iran’s first ever direct attack on Israeli soil. But the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had not declared a formal decision by late on Sunday.

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Biden’s renewed embrace of Israel threatens to deepen Democratic divide

Iran’s attack may give the president a reason to return to his default position of ‘ironclad’ Israeli support – could that hurt him in November?

“Ironclad,” said Joe Biden. “Ironclad,” said Lloyd Austin, the defense secretary. “Ironclad,” said the Senate leader Chuck Schumer, the House leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer.

In the wake of Saturday’s attack by Iran, Democrats united around a single word in expressing their commitment to Israel’s security. It was a sentiment that papered over, at least for now, cracks in the party over Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.

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G7 releases statement condemning Iran retaliatory attacks on Israel – as it happened

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Jordan declared a state of emergency amid Iran’s drone attack on Israel, Reuters reported, citing state media.

Two regional security sources told Reuters that the country’s air defenses are prepared to intercept and shoot down any Iranian drones that enter its air space.

In accordance with the situational assessment and in light of the security situation, the Home Front Command is issuing updates and adjustments to the defensive guidelines at this time – starting tomorrow morning and over the coming days, educational establishments, day camps and planned trips will not take place.

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RAF shot down Iranian drones heading for Israel, Sunak confirms

Prime minister says UK was involved to save lives in Israel and neighbouring countries

Rishi Sunak has confirmed that RAF Typhoons shot down a number of Iranian drones overnight and said the UK’s involvement helped save lives in Israel and neighbouring Arab countries.

The prime minister did not provide the number of drones hit, although the UK’s contribution is likely to have been significantly less than the 70 claimed by the US and dozens reported knocked out by Jordan over its airspace.

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