New research suggests that the global peak may be lower than expected. But the challenges will still be immense

In 1798, Thomas Malthus wrung his hands as he contemplated the growing mass of humanity, warning: “The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.”

A few years after he wrote that essay, the global population hit 1 billion. Now, thanks to the exponential growth which he described, it is closing in on 8 billion. The scholar’s direst warnings, echoed by others through the years, have not come to pass. But his concerns about the strain on resources have been multiplied by the climate crisis, with greenhouse gas emissions rising, and global heating in turn causing land loss and deterioration.