Worse-than-expected figures for three months to June come amid concerns over lopsided economy
China has posted worse-than-expected growth figures for the three months to June as its economy expanded by just 4.3% – one of its lowest quarterly readings on record.
The rate, which came in under the government’s target of 4.5% to 5%, was one of the weakest since reporting on official quarterly GDP figures began in the early 1990s.
Continue reading...Unesco report shows children lost out to servicing debt in 113 countries, with 18 spending five times more on loans
Most developing countries spent less on education than they did repaying debt last year, according to the UN, at the same time as global aid to education is predicted to decline by up to 30%.
More was spent on servicing foreign debt than on education in 113 developing countries in 2025, according to research by the UN’s culture and education agency, Unesco. In sub-Saharan Africa, countries spent 3.6 times more on debt than education.
Continue reading...Stock markets on both sides of Atlantic up as concerns ease over prospect of another inflationary shock
Oil prices have fallen to pre-Iran war levels as more oil tankers exited the strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to a low of $72.24 a barrel on Thursday, slightly lower than the day before the US and Israel launched missile attacks on Tehran on 28 February. Prices have fallen more than 20% this month.
Continue reading...Markets welcome US-Iran peace deal but prices may stay high as buyers race to refill depleted emergency crude stockpiles
After more than 100 days of the greatest recorded disruption to the world’s energy supplies, the global oil and gas markets have breathed a sigh of relief.
Hours after Donald Trump confirmed that a US-Iran peace deal would lead to the reopening of the strait of Hormuz for tankers carrying millions of barrels of oil and gas, the price of Brent crude tumbled to lows of $82 a barrel. Wholesale gas prices fell about 6%.
Continue reading...Cold storage and logistics body warns food supplies at risk from fuel shortages, cyber attacks and extreme weather
Ministers have been accused of being complacent about the risks to vital supplies of food into the UK amid concerns over fuel shortages, cyber attacks and extreme weather.
The trade body for cold storage and logistics has urged the government to make potential disruption to the UK’s food system an “immediate national priority”.
Continue reading...Global prices are approaching a tipping point that could trigger inflation, shortages and, over time, recession
If a US-Iran deal is about to be reached, three months on from the launch of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, it will not be a day too soon for oil markets, which are approaching a dangerous tipping point.
The cost of a barrel of crude on the spot market – for immediate purchase, effectively – has bounced about $100 since Iran predictably responded to the onslaught from the US and Israel by closing the strait of Hormuz.
Continue reading...Impact of disruption from Iran war may be felt into 2027 even if strait of Hormuz reopens, says aviation body boss
Increases in air fares for travellers in Europe are “inevitable” over the peak summer period because of the high cost of jet fuel, according to the head of the international aviation body.
While some airlines faced with weak demand have reduced their European fares recently, Willie Walsh, the former British Airways boss who leads the International Air Transport Association, said there was no way carriers could absorb the extra costs in the long run.
Continue reading...Conservatives and former provincial premiers among those PM names to advisory committee on economic relations
Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, says his new advisory committee on economic relations with the United States will draw on the “best advice and the broadest perspectives” as the country braces for what many expect will be tense trade negotiations with its southern neighbour.
The 24-member advisory committee, announced on Tuesday, shows the prime minister’s eagerness to reach across the political spectrum to ensure Canada is “well positioned to advance its interests” at the looming trade talks.
Continue reading...Analysis shows developing economies more likely to experience higher interest rates and currency shocks
Emerging economies are at greater risk of higher interest rates and currency shocks resulting from the Iran war because of increased reliance on market investors such as hedge funds, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
The IMF’s analysis shows that a cumulative $4tn flowed into emerging markets last year from outside the formal banking sector – including from hedge funds and investment funds.
Continue reading...Donald Trump’s ‘little excursion’ is likely to have long-term effects, from oil prices to inflation to growth, say experts
In the days after the US and Israel first bombed Iran, financial markets bet the economic fallout from Donald Trump’s “little excursion” in the Middle East would be short-lived.
“There are risks from higher oil prices longer term. But this is a tail risk,” one US-based fund manger said after the airstrike killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “History has shown time and time again that geopolitical flare-ups like this tend to be short-lived. This one should prove to be no exception.’’
Continue reading...Food production in many African countries depends heavily on fertiliser imported from the Gulf through the strait of Hormuz
Countries in Africa, where farmers depend heavily on imported fertiliser and a large share of household income goes on food, are particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East, experts have said.
The conflict has drastically disrupted trade through the strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane not just for oil and gas but also for fertiliser, which is produced in vast quantities in the Gulf.
Continue reading...Despite rare act of multilateralism, there is no guarantee the IEA’s release of 400m barrels from reserves will depress prices
IEA poised to call for largest ever release of stockpiled oil to reduce price
How the Iran conflict could affect energy prices – video explainer
When the global economy was still in the grip of the devastating 1970s oil crises, exposing the chokehold exerted by a few important oil states, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was created, in the hope of limiting future shocks.
Almost half a century on, the IEA’s 32 members have drawn up plans to hit the emergency button, for only the fifth time in its history.
Continue reading...Saudi Arabian state oil firm calls crisis by far the biggest the region has seen but firm can reroute 70% of exports and tap crude held in storage
Saudi Arabia’s state oil company has warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the US-Israeli war with Iran continues to block shipping in the strait of Hormuz.
The world’s biggest oil exporter expects to be able to supply the market with about 70% of its usual crude output despite the stranglehold on the vital trade artery, but its chief executive warned that there would still be “drastic” consequences for the world economy if the disruption continues.
Continue reading...Reports of attack on US registered tanker in Gulf lifts crude by 3% to $84 a barrel as gas price also starts to climb
Stock markets have rebounded in Asia after days of heavy losses driven by the war in the Middle East, but oil and gas prices have continued to climb amid disruption to supplies.
South Korea’s KOSPI, which posted its biggest ever fall on Tuesday of 12%, rose by almost 10% on Thursday, while Japan’s Nikkei climbed by 1.9%. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan jumped by 2.7%.
Continue reading...Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed and vessels rerouted, sending some freight costs surging
Leading maritime insurers have cancelled war risk cover for vessels operating in the Gulf as the escalating Iran conflict disrupted shipping and sent some freight costs surging.
At least 150 vessels including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers have dropped anchor in the strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, and at least three tankers were damaged and one seafarer killed over the weekend.
Continue reading...Beijing reimposes 2023 ban, citing Japan PM’s comment that military would respond to Chinese attack on island
China has suspended imports of Japanese seafood again, as the fallout over the Japanese prime minister’s comments about Taiwan continues to escalate in one of worst bilateral disputes in years.
The ban was first reported on Wednesday by the Japanese outlets Kyodo News and NHK, and appeared to be confirmed by China’s foreign ministry, which said there was “no market for Japanese seafood in the current climate”.
Continue reading...Outcome appears closer to truce than durable peace but outline of broader diplomatic relationship is visible
When Donald Trump launched his trade war against China in April, threatening tariffs as high as 145%, the Chinese government said it would never bow to blackmail and vowed to “fight to the end”.
The question now is whether the consensus reached between Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday means that the fight really has come to an end, and if so on whose terms.
Continue reading...Analysts say president’s war on Russia’s fossil fuel revenues is a chance to bring peace to Ukraine and profit to US
Donald Trump’s stated mission to broker peace in Ukraine could come down to this simple question: can the US president convince the world to stop buying Russia’s fossil fuels?
Last week, Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in an effort to damage Moscow’s ability to fund its war machine.
Continue reading...Treasury secretary Scott Bessent raises possibility of taking more direct stakes in companies to protect national security in wake of Beijing’s curbs on rare earths exports
The Trump administration has criticised China’s increased restrictions on rare earth exports as a threat to global supply chains, and said it would seek to tighten control over strategic sectors by taking more stakes in key companies to counter Beijing.
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told an event on Wednesday that China’s dramatic new restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets demonstrated the need for the US to be self-sufficient in critical materials or rely more on trusted allies.
Continue reading...Fast-fashion retailer records 20% growth in sales and fees to $37bn but big hit is expected from US changes to import tax rules
Shein has reported a 20% rise in global revenues to $37bn (£27.7bn) but profits have fallen as the fast-fashion retailer faced increased costs, even before it felt the impact of recent changes to US tax laws.
The Singaporean parent company of the rapidly growing retailer said pre-tax profits had fallen by 13% to $1.3bn last year from $1.5bn in 2023 after an increase in selling and marketing costs, according to new accounts.
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