Category Archives: European Central Bank

Dow Jones Industrial Average hits 40,000 points for first time; UK reality TV stars charged over FX scheme – as it happened

Posted on by

Strong quarterly results and hope of interest rate cuts drive DJIA to new alltime high

A group of business leaders have warned Rishi Sunak that the government’s migration policies risk weakening the UK university sector, the Financial Times reports, undermining a key reason for companies to invest in the country.

The FT explains:

In a letter to Rishi Sunak, bosses at groups including miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto and industrial conglomerate Siemens, said they were “deeply concerned” by widening funding gaps and declining international student applications that were “a result of government policy”.

They said this risked “undermining the positive impact that international students have on our skills base, future workforce, and international influence”, as well as reducing the funding available for research and industry collaboration.

Continue reading...

MP calls Royal Mail delivery cuts a ‘slap in the face for families’ – as it happened

Posted on by

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as UK postal service says it wants to cut 1,000 jobs and cut delivery days

The question on economists’ lips after the surprise easing of eurozone inflation is: will the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates as early as this month?

The ECB’s rate-setting governing council, led by president Christine Lagarde, meets next week. Economists expect the council to cut rates in June, but surprising data and some doveish comments from some members of the council appear to have put an April cut into play.

While at first sight this looks like it opens up a possible rate cut in April, the ECB is unlikely to act this month. More data on wage growth will come in May, and the ECB needs to be certain of its path. In President Lagarde’s own words: “we will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more in June”.

Christine Lagarde’s previous indication that the ECB may not commit outright to a path of rate cuts suggests a cautious approach, but the consensus among economists leans towards a potential cut as early as June, pending further data on wage growth trends.

The challenge here for the ECB is that reaching the last mile target inflation rate of 2% may prove more arduous than anticipated, with incremental decreases seen as most likely.

Will the labour market tighten further now that GDP growth looks to be rebounding? We doubt it and, in fact, suspect the unemployment rate will edge up over the coming months.

A still-low unemployment rate doesn’t necessarily mean wage growth will remain at today’s highs, so it need not worry the ECB nor prevent it from starting its easing cycle. We think wage growth will come down, in line with the fall in inflation in recent months as workers’ negotiating power diminishes. A recovery in productivity would support wage growth even as inflation eases. We think productivity growth is now improving, but slowly does it.

Continue reading...

Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% after increase in energy costs

Posted on by

December data comes amid speculation over when European Central Bank will cut interest rates

Inflation across the eurozone rose in December after an increase in energy costs, reversing six months of consecutive falls and easing the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates.

Figures from the EU statistical agency Eurostat showed consumer prices across the 20-country bloc rose at an annual rate of 2.9% last month, up from 2.4% in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a slightly higher reading of 3% for December.

Continue reading...

Bank of England, Fed and ECB poised to leave interest rates on hold

Posted on by

Stubbornly high inflation forces central banks to avoid cuts, but markets expect falls next year

The western world’s largest central banks are poised to keep interest rates on hold this week amid concerns over stubbornly high inflation, despite growing expectations for sharp cuts in borrowing costs next year.

In a crunch week for the global economy, the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank are expected to keep interest rates at their current restrictively high levels to ensure inflation continues to fall back from the highest levels in decades.

Continue reading...

Eurozone banks starting to show ‘stress’ as loan defaults rise, ECB warns

Posted on by

Rising interest rates have boosted profitability but are likely to limit demand and increase risk of bad debts, says central bank

The balance sheets of eurozone banks are showing “early signs of stress” after a rise in loan defaults and late payments by customers, the European Central Bank has warned.

Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ income and profits for the time being, the ECB said, but lenders are facing pressures from higher funding costs, worsening asset quality and lower lending volumes.

Continue reading...

ECB warns eurozone economy ‘remains weak’ after leaving interest rates on hold; US growth accelerates to 4.9% – as it happened

Posted on by

Eurozone central bank gives press conference after pausing its cycle of rate hikes, as inflation slows and Europe’s economy weakens

Back in the City, shares in Standard Chartered bank have tumbled over 11% after it missed profit expectations and took a hit on its exposure to China.

Standard Chartered, the Asia Pacific-focused bank, reported that pretax profits more than halved in the last quarter to $633m, down from $1.391bn in Q3 2022.

We have continued to make strong progress in the third quarter against the five strategic actions outlined last year, delivering a solid set of results.

Wealth Management has continued its recovery with double digit income growth and the Financial Markets performance has been resilient against a strong comparator period.

Real GDP per capita is now almost 10% above its pre-pandemic level – a much stronger performance than the euro area as a whole. The unemployment rate has also declined steeply, and was 10.9% in August, the lowest level since the end of 2009.

And with a stronger economy, the country has been able to work further through its debt challenge. Greece’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has dropped 35 percentage points from its peak of 206% in 2020, one of the fastest falls in the world.

Continue reading...

Sluggish eurozone economies will not welcome ECB’s interest rate rise

Posted on by

Weak consumer spending as, people – especially in Germany, the EU’s largest economy – put more into savings

Interest rates went up again across the eurozone on Thursday – probably for the last time during this cycle of hikes that has become a familiar story in the single currency bloc, as it has in the UK and US.

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its main deposit rate by a quarter of one per cent to 4% – the highest level in the euro’s history.

Continue reading...

Eurozone sinks into recession as cost of living crisis takes toll

Posted on by

GDP shrank 0.1% in first quarter of 2023 and final three months of 2022 after revisions to earlier estimates

The eurozone slipped into recession in the first three months of the year, after official figures were revised to show the bloc’s economy shrank as the rising cost of living weighed on consumer spending.

Figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency, showed gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 and the final three months of 2022 after revisions to earlier estimates. A technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Continue reading...

European Central Bank chief suggests firms are engaging in ‘greedflation’

Posted on by

Comments by Christine Lagarde come after central bank raises interest rates for seventh time in succession

The president of the European Central Bank suggested companies were taking advantage of high inflation when raising prices, after the bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to tackle the cost of living surge.

Christine Lagarde said wage pressures in the eurozone had strengthened, as workers try to recoup some of the purchasing power they have lost due to inflation, but hinted some firms were engaging in so-called greedflation.

Continue reading...

Credit Suisse shares continue to fall despite efforts to calm nerves

Posted on by

Lifelines handed to Swiss bank and US regional bank First Republic fail to ease investor concerns

Credit Suisse shares came under renewed pressure on Friday, despite fresh attempts by central banks and politicians to calm fears about a crisis in the global banking industry sparked by the collapse of two US banks this week.

Shares in Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second largest bank, fell 8% on Friday despite securing a £45bn emergency loan from the Swiss National Bank just days earlier to shore up its liquidity after a week of panic.

Continue reading...

ECB raises eurozone interest rate despite banking sector fears

Posted on by

Concerns half-point could set off domino effect across financial industry knocked by Credit Suisse crisis

The European Central Bank has raised interest rates across the eurozone by 0.5 percentage points, despite fears that higher borrowing costs could set off a domino effect across a banking sector already reeling from a collapse in confidence in Switzerland’s second largest lender, Credit Suisse.

Officials at the ECB, the central bank covering the 19-member euro bloc, said inflation was likely to remain high “for too long”, forcing it to continue with its planned run of rate increases.

Continue reading...

ECB faces dilemma over interest rate rise amid Credit Suisse crisis

Posted on by

European Central Bank could opt for smaller increase as concerns spread over health of banking system

The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma over whether to push ahead with its plans for a large interest rise on Thursday amid fears over the strength of the banking system after Wednesday’s heavy sell-off of the Swiss banking firm Credit Suisse.

After raising interest rates since last summer at a record pace to tackle high inflation across the eurozone, the ECB had in effect committed to another 0.5 percentage point increase in borrowing costs this week.

Continue reading...

ECB looking out for price gouging as fears grow over ‘greedflation’

Posted on by

Concerns that a big driver of price rises may be firms using inflation as excuse to increase profit margins

Fears that Europe’s companies are exploiting high inflation to increase their profit margins have prompted a warning from the European Central Bank that it is closely monitoring potential price gouging of consumers.

Policymakers have repeatedly called for wage restraint but concerns are mounting that a bigger driver of the wave of price rises may be companies using inflation as an excuse to increase profit margins, a trend unions have described as “greedflation”.

Continue reading...

World Bank walking tightrope as it mulls increased lending to poorest

Posted on by

Campaigners say bank should rush to rescue countries facing recession – but can it do so without resulting in mass debt write-offs?

Not since the early 1990s has the world faced such a period of low growth.

Discounting the havoc caused by the financial crash of 2008 and the initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the World Bank says that by the end of 2024 it will have been 30 years since the global economy grew at an average of less than 2% a year.

Continue reading...

Federal Reserve to slow interest rate rises as it tackles 40-year inflation high

Posted on by

Jerome Powell warned there ‘was more ground to cover’ and rates would stay higher for an extended period

The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, indicated the central bank is preparing to slow the pace of interest rate rises as it tackles a 40-year high in inflation. But Powell warned there “was more ground to cover” and rates would stay higher for an extended period.

In a speech to the Brookings Institution, Powell said that the Fed may increase its key interest rate by a smaller increment at its December meeting, only a half-point, after four straight three-quarter point hikes.

Continue reading...

Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflation

Posted on by

Third outsized rate increase in a row as central bank struggles to fight runaway inflation, increasing the cost of everything

The Federal Reserve announced another sharp hike in interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank struggles to rein in runaway inflation.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, the third such outsized rate increase in a row, bringing the Fed rate to 3%-3.25% and increasing the cost of everything from credit card debt and mortgages to company financing.

Continue reading...

Euro a whisker from dollar parity; Heathrow caps passenger numbers amid travel disruption – as it happened

Posted on by

Euro slides to a 20-year low of $1.0001 on anxiety that Europe will fall into recession, as Heathrow introduces limit on summer holiday passengers

The euro is teetering ever closer to parity with the dollar.

It’s now trading at just $1.0005, on concerns that the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance could become permanent.

“While we believe that a cessation of Russian gas supply to Europe is a real possibility, one that would cause a Eurozone-wide recession with three consecutive quarters of economic contraction, there are also good reasons to assume that gas supplies will resume after the maintenance.”

Continue reading...

Why is the ECB still fiddling over a potential eurozone crisis? | Nils Pratley

Posted on by

Christine Lagarde is failing to heed the lesson of last decade’s crisis: act quickly and act clearly

Perhaps the European Central Bank was feeling left out as the financial world turned its attention to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. But emergency meetings of major central banks are supposed to produce more substance than the weak offering that emerged from Frankfurt after a morning of contemplation: a plan to accelerate work on a “new anti-fragmentation instrument”.

The fragmentation in question is the widening of bond yields between eurozone countries. In short, as interest rate rises have come into view, weaker economies are having to pay meaningfully greater rates to borrow than the likes of Germany – about 2.4 percentage points more in the case of Italy.

Continue reading...

Markets brace for sharpest rise in US interest rates in almost 30 years

Posted on by

Federal Reserve expected to increase cost of borrowing by 0.75 percentage points to curb rising inflation

The world’s financial markets are bracing themselves for the sharpest rise in US interest rates in almost 30 years, as America’s central bank takes action to halt rising inflation.

After days of frenzied investor speculation and signs of growing central bank anxiety, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase the official cost of borrowing by 0.75 percentage points for the first time since 1994.

Continue reading...

London Stock Exchange suspends trading in 27 firms with strong links to Russia

Posted on by

Energy and banking giants Gazprom and Sberbank plus EN+, Lukoil and Polyus among firms

The London Stock Exchange has suspended trading in 27 companies with strong links to Russia, including energy and banking giants Gazprom and Sberbank.

The LSE said it was moving to block trading in the companies, which also include EN+, Lukoil and Polyus, with immediate effect “in light of market conditions, and in order to maintain orderly markets”.

Continue reading...