Category Archives: Inflation

Thames Water collapse could trigger Truss-style borrowing crisis, Whitehall officials fear

Posted on by

Exclusive: Concerns over effect on UK’s finances lead officials to believe utility should be renationalised before general election

Senior Whitehall officials fear Thames Water’s financial collapse could trigger a rise in government borrowing costs not seen since the chaos of the Liz Truss mini-budget, the Guardian can reveal.

Such is their concern about the impact on wider borrowing costs for the UK, even beyond utilities and infrastructure, that they believe Thames should be renationalised before the general election.

Continue reading...

Oil price could exceed $100 a barrel if Middle East conflict worsens, World Bank warns

Posted on by

Increase in cost of crude could drive inflation up and force central banks to keep interest rates high

• Business live – latest updates

A serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East would push the price of oil above $100 (£80) a barrel and reverse the recent downward trend in global inflation, the World Bank has said.

The Washington-based institution said the recent fall in commodity prices had been levelling off even before the recent missile strikes by Iran and Israel – making interest rate decisions for central banks tougher.

Continue reading...

Australia’s inflation rate slows less than expected to 3.6%, dimming hopes of interest rate relief

Posted on by

Economists had tipped CPI growth for the March quarter of 0.8%, and an annual inflation rate of 3.5%

Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the March quarter, dimming hopes the cost of living crunch was easing and chances of a 2024 cut in official interest rates.

The consumer price index for the first three months of 2024 was 3.6%, slowing from the 4.1% annual pace in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists had tipped CPI would drop to 3.5%.

Continue reading...

Most difficult global outlook since 1930s heralds end of US-led world order | Larry Elliott

Posted on by

IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverse

The 2020s are almost halfway over and are on course to be the most difficult decade for the global economy since the 1930s. Every finance minister and central bank governor at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington last week knows that, even if they were not prepared to admit it publicly.

The IMF likes to look on the bright side. It revised up slightly its forecast for global growth and now thinks scarring from the coronavirus pandemic and the cost of living crisis will be less severe than it originally feared. Interest rates have risen without triggering the recessions that were predicted. A soft landing has been finessed. The performance of some countries – the US and India to take two examples – has been strong.

Continue reading...

Middle East conflict risks sharp rise in oil prices, says IMF

Posted on by

In the UK, anxiety over the crisis after Iran’s missile strike on Israel drives down UK shares

An escalating Middle East conflict risks leading to higher oil prices, a reversal of the recent fall in inflation and a puncturing of the optimistic mood in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

The Washington-based IMF said it was closely monitoring events in the region after Iran’s missile strike on Israel at the weekend and stressed the possibility that a war between the two countries could lead to higher interest rates.

Continue reading...

Interest rates need to stay higher for longer, says Bank of England policymaker

Posted on by

Megan Greene dampens hopes of August cut while underlying causes of inflation remain ‘persistent’

Cuts in UK interest rates should be “a way off”, according to a Bank of England policymaker, who has said that inflationary pressures will keep the cost of borrowing higher than financial markets expect.

Megan Greene, a member of the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC), which sets interest rates, said financial markets were betting “in the wrong direction” when they judged how quickly the central bank would make its first rate cut.

Continue reading...

Food inflation in world’s rich nations falls to pre-Ukraine war levels

Posted on by

Rate declines for 15th consecutive month across 38 OECD countries from 6.3% in January to 5.3% in February

Food prices across the world’s richest nations rose in February at the slowest rate since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to figures that show easing inflationary pressures on households.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said food inflation declined for the 15th consecutive month across its 38 member countries from 6.3% in January to 5.3% in February.

Continue reading...

Energy bills: standing charges are not standing still

Posted on by

Despite a 12.3% cut in April’s energy price cap, there is an important fixed element in your bill that is rising again

“Great news! Your unit rates are going down.” E.ON’s letter to customers starts with glad tidings – but, as it soon admits, there is an element of their bills that is set to go up in most parts of the country.

Despite a headline cut of 12.3% in April’s energy price cap, yet again standing charges are rising. In E.ON’s case, on its Next Flex tariff, electricity charges are due to rise from 62.205p to 67.9041p – an increase of just over 9% – while for gas, charges go up from 29.595p to 31.894p (up almost 8%).

Continue reading...

UK government borrowing higher than expected in February

Posted on by

Borrowing of £8.4bn last month could threaten OBR forecast for £114.1bn deficit for 2023-24 as a whole

Jeremy Hunt has been handed disappointing news from the public finances after government borrowing was higher than expected in February, leaving the national debt at the highest levels since the 1960s.

The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing was £8.4bn in February, £3.4bn less than in the same month a year ago. However, it was higher than any economist expected in a Reuters poll that predicted a deficit of £6bn.

Continue reading...

Next cheers retail sector with bumper profits and talk of falling prices

Posted on by

Shares hit new high as chain says consumer backdrop is improving and ‘feels like it is now entering a new era’

Next said the prices it charges customers are falling this year, as the fashion and homeware retailer reported bumper profits and said the UK consumer backdrop was improving.

Simon Wolfson, the group’s chief executive, said that it had been “a long time” since the group had started a financial year in such a positive frame of mind after the positive sales and growth results for the year to January.

Continue reading...

Fed leaves interest rates unchanged but signals three cuts this year

Posted on by

Rates to stay at 25-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% as central bank says ‘inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated’

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would leave US interest rates at a 25-year high as it continues to assess their impact on cooling inflation and the wider economy.

After a two-day meeting, the Fed announced rates would be unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, where they have been since July. But the Fed signaled it still expects to cut rates three times this year.

Continue reading...

Vinyl records return to UK ‘inflation basket’ for first time since 1992

Posted on by

Strong sales of Taylor Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version) help format make an impact, as air fryers also join list

Not since Simply Red’s album Stars topped the albums chart in 1992 have vinyl records been included in the basket of goods used to calculate annual inflation, but a rise in sales over recent years has brought them back as a marker of UK shop prices.

The Office for National Statistics said the “resurgence of popularity” in vinyl records meant they should be included among the 744 items used to calculate inflation each month, in its latest annual shake-up of the basket.

Continue reading...

Bitcoin hits new record high above $70,000; US investor ends Currys chase – business live

Posted on by

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as exchange-traded funds help biggest cryptocurrency rally

The European Commission’s use of Microsoft email and office software broke its own privacy rules, an EU privacy watchdog has ruled.

Microsoft’s software transferred personal data outside the EU, breaching privacy rules, according to the European Data Protection Supervisor.

Continue reading...

Cookie Monster and Ohio senator make odd allies in shrinkflation complaint

Posted on by

Democratic senator Sherrod Brown endorsed the Sesame Street star’s complaint on products getting smaller as prices remain same

The Ohio Democratic senator Sherrod Brown endorsed a key voice in the American public square – Cookie Monster – in a complaint about shrinkflation.

“Me hate shrinkflation!” the Sesame Street character posted on social media on Monday, referring to an economic phenomenon Merriam-Webster defines as “the practice of reducing a product’s amount or volume per unit while continuing to offer it at the same price”.

Continue reading...

Deal allows police to march in parade – as it happened

Posted on by

This blog is now closed.

On the “broken promise” of changing the stage-three tax cuts (the latest Guardian Essential poll had Albanese falling in the trust stakes) the prime minister said:

We made not an easy decision. We made the right decision for all the right reasons. We know that families are under cost of living pressure.

The idea that we could sit back and ignore the clear recommendations that this was the best way that we could have an impact on providing that assistance to middle Australia without putting upward pressure on inflation – we couldn’t ignore that.

This is just a terrible incident that’s occurred here. The loss of the two young men and I feel for the grieving of the family, the friends. They obviously were full of life, because so many people interacted with them. It’s a really tough day for, as well, the queer community, and it’s been a very difficult time.

Continue reading...

UK grocery price inflation falls to two-year low amid supermarket price war

Posted on by

Competition helped offset impact of Red Sea shipping crisis in February, says analyst Kantar

Grocery price inflation in the UK has slowed to a two-year low as fierce competition among supermarkets offset the impact of the Red Sea shipping crisis on goods prices.

In a boost to households, supermarket prices were 5.3% higher than a year earlier in February, the lowest rate since March 2022 and down from January’s 6.8%, according to the analyst Kantar. Grocery sales grew by 5.1% in the four weeks to 18 February.

Continue reading...

Bank of England governor dampens hopes of interest rate cut

Posted on by

Andrew Bailey says cost of living had been higher than expected in December despite ‘encouraging’ inflation news

The Bank of England governor has doused hopes that better-than-expected inflation news last month will accelerate cuts in interest rates, stressing the need for further evidence of wage moderation before Threadneedle Street moves.

Appearing before the House of Lords economics committee on Wednesday, Andrew Bailey said it was “encouraging” that inflation had remained unchanged at 4% in January but the previous month’s figure for the cost of living had been higher than predicted.

Continue reading...

US inflation hotter than expected in January at 3.1%

Posted on by

While inflation has fallen sharply since peaking above 9% in June 2022, many are still feeling the pinch of high prices

Inflation was hotter than expected across the US last month as it continues to fall back from its highest levels in a generation.

Price growth dropped to an annual rate of 3.1% in January, according to official data; above economists’ expectations of 2.9%. In December, the consumer price index stood at 3.4%.

Continue reading...

UK pay growth slows less than expected as workers bid up wages

Posted on by

December figures prompt predictions Bank of England may cut interest rates later than previously expected

Pay growth slowed less than expected in December, prompting predictions the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates later than previously expected.

Earnings growth, excluding bonuses, fell only modestly to 6.2% in October to December 2023 from a revised 6.7% in the previous three months, as workers continued to bid up their wages amid skills shortages and a record number of people with long-term sickness.

Continue reading...

China has seen a fourth month of falling prices, but will it act to curb deflation?

Posted on by

Plunge in consumer prices has fuelled calls for a stimulus package – yet Beijing may stick to the new normal of lower growth

• China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years

China’s economy has gone from bad to worse – and it is only February.

Figures released on Thursday showed consumer prices fell by 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier, outstripping economists’ expectations and marking the biggest contraction in 15 years.

Continue reading...