Category Archives: Office for Budget Responsibility

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for tax cuts hit by higher-than-expected borrowing

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Government borrowed £120.7bn in the last financial year, with just under £12bn in March

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for a substantial pre-election tax giveaway has been hit after the latest set of official figures showed the UK’s public finances in worse shape than thought at last month’s budget.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the government borrowed £120.7bn in the 2023-24 financial year – £6.6bn more than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected.

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UK government borrowing higher than expected in February

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Borrowing of £8.4bn last month could threaten OBR forecast for £114.1bn deficit for 2023-24 as a whole

Jeremy Hunt has been handed disappointing news from the public finances after government borrowing was higher than expected in February, leaving the national debt at the highest levels since the 1960s.

The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing was £8.4bn in February, £3.4bn less than in the same month a year ago. However, it was higher than any economist expected in a Reuters poll that predicted a deficit of £6bn.

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Jeremy Hunt suggests tax cuts in budget won’t match last year’s £20bn giveaway – UK politics live

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The chancellor said he wanted to manage people’s expectations ahead of the spring budget

The UK needs a government guided by clear purpose, Reeves says.

Labour has set out five missions. But they are all tied to the economic mission – to raise growth.

These are the symptoms of economic decline.

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Jeremy Hunt fuels election speculation as 6 March spring budget announced

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Chancellor has asked the OBR to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances to be presented to parliament

Jeremy Hunt has announced that a spring budget expected to feature a host of tax cuts will be held on 6 March, fuelling speculation over an early general election.

While government sources insisted nothing should be read into the date, it is the earliest the set-piece fiscal event has been held in 13 years of Conservative government – apart from 2021 when the Treasury was trying to kickstart the economy after Covid.

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No bounce for the Tories after tax-cutting budget, poll shows

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Opinium poll for the Observer reveals the public is unimpressed with Jeremy Hunt’s attempt to woo them by trimming national insurance

Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories.

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Autumn statement live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance as OBR downgrades UK growth forecast

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Chancellor cuts employee national insurance to 10% while abolishing class 2 national insurance

Keir Starmer has said that a pause in hostilities between Israel and Hamas must be used to tackle the “urgent and unacceptable humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza.

Welcoming the deal, which is expected to involve the release of 50 hostages being held by Hamas and a number of women and teenagers from Israeli jails, the Labour leader said his party had been calling for “a substantial humanitarian pause”. He said:

There must be immediate access to aid, food, water, fuel and medicine to ensure hospitals function and lives are saved. Aid and fuel need to not just get in but be distributed widely and safely.

We must also use the space this pause creates to take more steps on a path towards a full cessation of hostilities rather than an escalation of violence.

The real function of the projected spending squeeze is as a trap for Labour. If the opposition rejects the Tory trajectory, it will be accused of planning a profligate spree with public money. And if it pledges adherence to impossible targets, it will enter government with its hands bound too tight to deliver prompt satisfaction to the people who voted for it.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have so far operated a sensible policy of not walking into traps of this kind. That approach restored swing voters’ trust in Labour as stewards of the economy. But it tests the patience of an activist base that sees reversal of austerity as a moral imperative and can smell the incipient disappointment in promises of fiscal discipline.

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OBR halves UK growth forecast and warns inflation will exceed 2% target until 2025

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Despite £27bn windfall for the autumn statement, government forecaster warns of generally more difficult outlook until 2028

The government’s official forecaster has slashed its predictions for economic growth over the next two years, and warned that inflation could take until 2025 to come back to the official 2% target.

In an updated financial health check to accompany the autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said a more resilient economy this year had handed the chancellor a £27bn budget windfall, but it warned of a more difficult outlook up to 2028 than previously forecast at the time of the budget in March.

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Labour motion to ban Truss-style budget meltdowns puts pressure on Tory MPs

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Party loyalty would force Conservatives to vote against plan for fiscal responsibility

Read more: ‘I challenge Rishi Sunak: vote with Labour to stop a Truss-style disaster happening again,’ writes Rachel Reeves

Labour will force a Commons vote this week aimed at creating new legal safeguards against fiscal disasters such as Liz Truss’s catastrophic mini-budget, which sent the financial markets into meltdown and drove up mortgage rates.

The party’s plan for a “fiscal lock” to protect personal, family and the national finances from reckless politicians will be contained in an amendment to the king’s speech that will be voted on by MPs on Tuesday. The manoeuvre will present Conservative backbenchers with a dilemma over whether to back a Labour amendment, or vote against what is a plan designed to embed fiscal responsibility into the budgetary process, and protect it from wild or accidental political misjudgments.

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Sunak strives to be reassuring but is five-point plan all sleight of hand?

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PM plans a ‘no tricks’ reset but with an inflation fall already expected this is more about hanging on at an election

In his first big speech since taking over at No 10, Rishi Sunak promised “no tricks, no ambiguity” as he announced his five promises to reset the government after a difficult year.

The prime minister said he would be focusing on halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting NHS waiting lists, and stopping small-boat crossings to the UK.

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Autumn statement 2022 live: OBR says living standards to fall 7% as Hunt confirms millions to pay more taxes

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Fiscal watchdog’s figures show eight years of growth wiped out; chancellor announces higher taxes and some cost of living support

In the Commons Rishi Sunak is making a statement about the G20 summit. These statements are normally routine, and just summarise what was said or decided at the meeting. They don’t normally include fresh announcements.

Sunak started by talking about the missile incident in Poland. He said Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles on the day that he “confronted the Russian foreign minister across the G20 summit table”. He said the blame for the missile landing in Poland lay with Russia. Ukraine could not be blamed for defending itself, he said.

During the bombardment of Ukraine on Tuesday an explosion took place in eastern Poland. The investigation into this incident is ongoing and it has our full support.

As we’ve heard the Polish and American presidents say, it is possible the explosion was caused by Ukrainian munition which was deployed in self-defence.

In just a few moments the chancellor will build on these international foundations when he sets out the autumn statement, putting our economy back on to a positive trajectory and restoring our fiscal sustainability.

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Jeremy Hunt to outline £60bn of tax rises and spending cuts

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Guardian understands early drafts of UK government’s autumn statement include at least £35bn reduction in spending

Jeremy Hunt will set out tax rises and spending cuts totalling £60bn at the autumn statement under current plans, including at least £35bn in cuts, the Guardian understands.

Ministers must submit the key points of the autumn statement to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) by Monday morning.

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Unfunded tax cuts mean UK ‘will need £60bn spending cuts’

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IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public services

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

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Truss and Kwarteng will face fury of Tory MPs in week of crisis meetings

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The PM and chancellor will try to stop panic spreading through the party after their high-risk economic plan threatens a ‘death spiral’

The prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, will face the wrath of Tory MPs at a succession of crisis meetings in parliament this week as their high-risk economic policies hit their poll ratings and spread panic in all wings of the party.

After a turbulent first five weeks at No 10 and an ill-disciplined, chaotic annual conference in Birmingham last week, Truss is expected to address the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers on Wednesday evening after taking on Keir Starmer at prime minister’s questions.

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Why OBR forecast is being held back until Kwarteng’s next fiscal plan

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Huge policy changes are needed to get UK back on track – so early publication would give an incomplete picture

The message the government wanted to get out was clear. After less than a month as prime minister, Liz Truss had converted from vocal scourge of Treasury orthodoxy to an active supporter.

Given the fallout in financial markets after the not-so-mini-budget, Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, laid on a heavily stage-managed meeting on Friday with officials from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Treasury’s independent economic forecaster, to try to smooth over the mess.

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Treasury to delay publishing OBR forecast by six weeks after 7 October delivery – UK politics live

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Budget watchdog to give assessment of fiscal plans next week but public will have to wait until chancellor’s November statement

Following a meeting with the prime minister, Liz Truss, and the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, the Office for Budget Responsibility has confirmed it will deliver an initial forecast on 7 October.

A spokesperson for the OBR said:

[The forecast] will, as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies.

We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook, and the forecast we are preparing for the chancellor’s medium-term fiscal plan.

We will deliver the first iteration of that forecast to the chancellor on Friday 7 October, and will set out the full timetable up to 23 November next week.

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Truss and Kwarteng to hold back OBR forecasts for six weeks

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PM and chancellor say they will not publish projections until late November despite them being ready next week

Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will refuse to release forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) until more than six weeks after receiving them, despite calls for them to be published as soon as possible.

The prime minister and chancellor said they would only publish the independent forecasts on 23 November alongside a fiscal statement, despite them being ready on 7 October.

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‘Fiscal sustainability’ plus rising borrowing costs could add up to cuts

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To make the sums work, some suggest Kwasi Kwarteng may include deep spending reductions in his medium-term fiscal plan

When Kwasi Kwarteng met City figures on Tuesday, the Treasury said he had “reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability”: though the grim faces of attendees in the official photos suggested they may not have been terribly reassured.

Some analysts are now warning that with borrowing costs rising sharply, and the chancellor determined not to water down his radical tax plans, “fiscal sustainability” points to one thing: spending cuts.

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Kwasi Kwarteng urged to allow release of OBR forecasts with mini-budget

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Tory chair of Treasury committee says independent forecasts vital to provide reassurance to markets

The Tory chair of the Treasury select committee has urged Kwasi Kwarteng to allow independent forecasts for the public finances to be published alongside his mini-budget on Friday.

Mel Stride released a strongly worded statement urging more clarity around the effects of the new chancellor’s fiscal interventions.

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Economic watchdog confirms it could scrutinise Truss’s cost of living plans

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MPs say it is vital tax and spending measures proposed by potential new prime minister are examined by OBR

Liz Truss has been challenged to open up her prospective emergency tax cuts and spending plans to scrutiny if she becomes prime minister and makes immediate moves to tackle the cost of living crisis.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which produces independent forecasts based on major fiscal announcements by the government, revealed preparatory work had been under way for about a month to publish fresh economic forecasts in September.

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Labour urges spending watchdog to assess impact of chancellor’s £21bn package

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Shadow Treasury secretary asks Office for Budget Responsibility to examine Rishi Sunak’s emergency cost of living measures

Labour has called for an independent assessment of whether Rishi Sunak’s £21bn cost of living emergency package could cause inflation to rise even higher and a verdict on the fiscal impact of substantial borrowing.

Pat McFadden, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, wrote to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to ask it to analyse the impact of the measures.

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