OBR a backseat driver with out-of-date maps, thinktanks tell Rachel Reeves

Chancellor urged to reform Office for Budget Responsibility to open way to more public investment

Rachel Reeves must reform the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to open the way to more public investment, an alliance of thinktanks has argued ahead of the chancellor’s spring forecast on Tuesday.

With Keir Starmer’s government under intense pressure after Labour’s defeat by the Greens in Thursday’s Gorton and Denton byelection, the thinktanks called on Reeves to review the watchdog’s remit.

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Starmer says Reform’s pledge to restore two-child benefit cap in full is ‘shameful’ – UK politics live

Reform UK’s Robert Jenrick has announced party’s plans to cut welfare spending

Robert Jenrick, Reform UK’s Treasury spokesperson, is giving his speech now.

He has announced, or confirmed, three measures to cut welfare spending.

The number claiming disability benefits for an attention disorder has more than doubled since Covid. We all know a significant number of these claims are spurious …

We will stop those with mild anxiety, depression, and similar conditions from claiming disability benefits and instead encourage them into the dignity of work.

We will end the abuse of the Motability scheme, where expensive cars are handed out for conditions like tennis elbow, and paid for by working people who can’t afford them themselves.

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OBR says its inadvertent release of budget report is ‘worst failure’ in its 15-year history – UK politics live

Office for Budget Responsibility says Rachel Reeves ‘had every right to expect that the [report] would not be publicly available until she sat down at the end of her budget speech’

Q: Yesterday you said Rachel Reeves was lying. Today you are saying she gave out false information. Are you still accusing her of being a liar?

Badenoch replies: “Yes.”

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OBR says inadvertent budget leak is ‘worst failure’ in its 15-year history

Investigation finds organisation’s leadership over many years was to blame for error, and similar breach happened earlier this year

Britain’s budget watchdog has said the early leak of its budget documents before Rachel Reeves made her speech was the “worst failure” in its 15-year history as it emerged a similar breach had occurred earlier this year.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said an investigation had found that the leadership of the organisation, over many years, was to blame for the early release of its Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) document online nearly an hour before Reeves’s address last Wednesday.

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Starmer says budget did not break manifesto tax pledge – as it happened

PM says: ‘We kept to our manifesto in terms of what we’ve promised. But I accept the challenge that we’ve asked everybody to contribute’

The Conservative party is attacking the budget on the grounds that Rachel Reeves is putting up taxes supposedly to fund more spending on benefit claimants. Even though the rationale for this claim is questionable, the Tories were making it before the budget was announced, and Kemi Badenoch firmed it up last night, claiming it was a “Benefits Street budget”.

On LBC this morning, asked if the budget meant “alarm clock Britain paying for Benefits Street”, Reeves said she did not accept that. She said 60% of the families that would benefit from the removal of the two-child benefit cap (the most expensive welfare announcement in the budget) were in work.

I don’t think children should be punished by this pernicious policy any longer. And the cost to society of this is huge, the cost for councils of temporary accommodation, when people can no longer afford the rent, putting families in B&Bs, kids having to move to school all the time because parents have moved from B&B to another lot of temporary accommodation, and there’s costs for years to come, because all the evidence shows that kids that are growing up poor are less likely to get into work and more reliant on the welfare state in the future for them.

So this is a good investment in those kids, to give them the chances that I want for my kids, and everyone wants for their kids. It also saves money for taxpayers on that accommodation, on those additional health costs, and ensuring that those kids grow up to be productive adults.

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Rachel Reeves targets UK’s wealthiest in £26bn tax-raising budget

Chancellor axes two-child benefit cap and cuts energy bills paid for by mansion tax and freezing tax thresholds

Rachel Reeves targeted Britain’s wealthiest households with a £26bn tax-raising budget to fund scrapping the two-child benefit policy and cutting energy bills.

On a chaotic day that involved key details of her budget accidentally being released early by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the chancellor defended the measures, saying she was “asking everyone to make a contribution to repair the public finances”, but that she wanted the wealthiest to pay the most.

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How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early

By the time the chancellor reached the dispatch box, the OBR had accidentally published its verdict in full online

Shortly before midday on Wednesday, a series of headlines about Rachel Reeves’s budget began appearing on the Reuters newswire, sending instant ripples though financial markets.

The details were jaw-dropping: they appeared to spell out the key policies of the chancellor’s budget more than 40 minutes before she was due to deliver them to a crowded Commons chamber.

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How Rachel Reeves’s budget was leaked 40 minutes early

By the time the chancellor reached the dispatch box, the OBR had accidentally published its verdict in full online

Shortly before midday on Wednesday, a series of headlines about Rachel Reeves’s budget began appearing on the Reuters newswire, sending instant ripples though financial markets.

The details were jaw-dropping: they appeared to spell out the key policies of the chancellor’s budget more than 40 minutes before she was due to deliver them to a crowded Commons chamber.

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UK government borrows more than expected in setback before budget

October figures represent final snapshot of public finances before Rachel Reeves’s tax and spending statement

Rachel Reeves was urged to use next week’s budget to create significantly more headroom against her fiscal rules, after official figures showed the UK government borrowed almost £10bn more than forecast in the year to October.

In the final snapshot of the public finances before the chancellor’s crunch budget, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing – the difference between public spending and income – was £17.4bn last month.

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Three more Reform UK councillors expelled from party over ‘dishonest’ behaviour after leaked video meeting – UK politics live

Footage of online meeting showed Kent county council leader remonstrating with councillors

Earlier I pointed out that, in his Today interview this morning, the Reform MP Danny Kruger was strangely reticent when it came to explaining why the size of the civil service has grown so much in recent years. (See 11.09am.)

In his speech this morning Kruger was a bit more forthcoming. He said:

Let me be very clear. The growth of the civil service will be reversed. After falling in the wake of the global financial crisis, the headcount of the civil service rose again after Brexit – shame on the Tories – and it passed 500,000 in 2023.

Nothing works properly. It’s impossible to build anything. The streets are dirty and unsafe. Taxes and prices are far too high. Immigration is changing our country for the worse and far too fast. And we’re becoming poor, sick and unhappy. There is a malaise over Britain.

These problems are complex. But the effective cause of them is simple. Since 1997 we have had governments that, firstly don’t share the attitude of the country they govern, and secondly, they aren’t properly in charge of the state.

This announcement only reinforces climate policy as a dividing line in our politics, rather than being the unifying issue it once was.

And, for the Conservative party, it risks chasing votes from Reform at the expense of the wider electorate.

By undermining the judiciary we further erode public trust in the institutions of our democracy and therefore in democracy itself.

So I say to those seeking to villainise a judiciary that cannot easily answer back, who wilfully discredit our legal system for their own expediency – it’s time to show responsible leadership.

This is not just about short-term decisions to make it easier to deal with public concerns about immigration.

Our support for human rights has its origin in Magna Carta. How we deal with issues of human rights is fundamental to our ability to deal with autocracies and dictatorships.

In the world of power where the club of strong men want to carve the world up in their own interests, populism and polarisation are enablers.

And those politicians in the Western world who use populism and polarisation for their own short-term political ends risk handing a victory to our enemies.

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New home secretary Shabana Mahmood says she will not run for deputy leader after Labour accused of ‘stitch-up’ over contest – UK politics live

The MP said police should be focusing on people who are members of the group, not those who ‘recklessly express support’ for it

Paul Nowak, the TUC general secretary, used his speech to conference this morning to say that the TUC expected the government to deliver its workers’ rights bill “in full”. He said employment rights were “overwhelmingly popular with voters across the political spectrum”.

And he condemned Reform UK for its stance on employment rights. After saying that Nigel Farage claimed to represent working class people, he went on:

Here’s the truth – there is a world of difference between what Nigel says and what Nigel does.

Every single Reform MP, including Mr Farage, voted against outlawing fire and rehire, against banning zero hours contracts and against day one rights for millions of workers.

Ask yourself this fundamental question. Do you believe in your gut that that Nigel Farage really cares about the people of Clacton when he’s off collecting his speaker’s fees in the United States?

Do you believe that Richard Tice really worries about the people of Skegness while he’s living it up at home in Dubai, or are they just rightwing conmen lining their own pockets?

I just have to say this. No amount of TikToks, or ozempic, or expensive haircuts, will ever hide the eager inner ugliness of Robert Jenrick.

The man who ordered murals painted over in a reception centre for children seeking asylum is indeed a xenophobe, an opportunistic xenophobe hoping to create a political climate that ends up with far right folks laying siege to hotels and black and Asian people being threatened and harassed on our streets.

If we look at the powerful geopolitical push factors, they’re things like regime change. We think Afghanistan, war, civil conflict. And when we look at people crossing in small boats, where do they come from? Well, the top nationalities: Afghan, Eritrea, Iranian, Syrian, Sudanese – just those five nationalities account for almost two thirds of all small boat arrivals, and these individuals are from some of the most chaotic parts of the world.

But there are also some pull factors, and the question is, why not claim asylum in France, why come to the UK? A number of reasons recur there when we speak with asylum seekers. It’s the presence of family members, the English language.

In those circumstances, typically, flagged upon the system, the UK government would be able to issue a speedy refuse refusal and try and effect removal.

As it is, people arrive, we don’t have that record, so we don’t know who they are.

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UK borrowing rises to £17.7bn, adding to pressure on Rachel Reeves

May figure second highest for month on record amid fears chancellor is struggling to keep within spending rules

Higher tax receipts were unable to prevent a rise in public sector borrowing in May to £17.7bn, up from £17bn a year earlier and the second highest for the month on record.

A poll of City economists had forecast public sector net borrowing – the difference between public spending and income – would be £17.1bn.

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Bank ‘should cut UK interest rates to at least 4% in May amid tariff turmoil’

Ex-Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean says cut of 0.5 points needed because of ‘crazy situation’ in US

The Bank of England should use its meeting next month to cut interest rates by at least half a percentage point to 4% in response to the financial turmoil created by Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, the former deputy governor Charlie Bean has said.

He believes an aggressive strategy is needed to combat the fallout from Trump’s tariff war, which has knocked trillions of pounds off global stock markets, undermining business and consumer confidence.

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Keir Starmer urged to get tough with Trump as US tariff threat looms

PM told to be as robust as Canada with the US president as the UK stages last-ditch talks to strike trade deal

Keir Starmer should fight back strongly against Donald Trump if he imposes punitive tariffs on British exports, senior UK and EU diplomats said on Saturday night, amid heightened fears that the US president could trigger a global trade war with devastating effects on the UK economy.

British government officials in London and Washington are working frantically this weekend to try to persuade Trump not to slap duties on more key UK industries on what he is calling “liberation day” on Wednesday. The US president has already announced plans for 25% levies on imports of cars, steel and aluminium to the US.

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250,000 more people will face relative poverty after Rachel Reeves’ benefits cuts, DWP says – spring statement live

Department for Work and Pensions says thousands, including children, will be hit by chancellor’s announcement, as OBR forecasts UK growth to halve in 2025

Rachel Reeves will not be raising taxes in the spring statement today, even though there are many people on the left who would prefer taxes to rise as an alternative to public spending being cut. Reeves came into office promising only one budget-type event a year, and that is one reason why she is not hiking taxes today. But mainly it’s because she thinks Britons are relatively highly taxed already, because Labour was elected on a manifesto ruling out most of the obvious possible tax rises and because she’s not convinced a sweeping wealth tax would work.

But that has not stopped campaigners calling for a wealth tax, and yesterday about 300 people attended a ‘Tax the Super-Rich’ rally outside the Treasury. It was organised by charities and social justice campaign groups, but one of the speakers was Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green party, which is in favour of a wealth tax.

Across the country, inequality is soaring and people are being left behind, struggling to make ends meet and dealing with broken public services, all while the very richest get richer. Choosing to make cut after cut to the poorest and most marginalised, while leaving the vast resource of the extreme wealth of the super rich untouched, is immoral, harmful, and will not deliver for our communities or the economy.

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All UK families ‘to be worse off by 2030’ as poor bear the brunt, new data warns

Keir Starmer has been dealt a fresh blow to his living standards pledge in advance of the spring statement

Living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030, with those on the lowest incomes declining twice as fast as middle and high earners, according to new data that raises serious questions about Keir Starmer’s pledge to make working people better off.

The grim economic analysis, produced by the respected Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), comes before the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, makes her spring statement on Wednesday in which she will announce new cuts to public spending rather than increase borrowing or raise taxes, so as to keep within the government’s “iron clad” fiscal rules.

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Former Bank of England deputy warns Rachel Reeves against kneejerk cuts

Charlie Bean says OBR forecasts are ‘flaky’ and cautions against trying to hit targets five years away

The former Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean has warned the chancellor against making kneejerk cuts in next week’s spring statement to try to hit fiscal targets that are five years away.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to slash spending, including on disability benefits, in response to weaker forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – prompting a backlash from within her own party.

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Shrinking economy offers unhelpful backdrop for Rachel Reeves’s growth push

GDP goes in wrong direction as chancellor puts final touches to fiscal plans

For a government that has made growth its overriding mission, the 0.1% decline in GDP in January signalled by the Office for National Statistics will be depressing news.

As Rachel Reeves prepares to announce her spring statement on 26 March, the economy appears to be going in the wrong direction – underlining the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility is likely to have presented her with notably weaker forecasts than in October.

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Reeves warned UK inflation will push public sector unions to seek higher pay rises

Plan for ‘reasonable’ 2.8% rises may prove insufficient, forcing chancellor to find billions in extra funding

Rachel Reeves has been warned public sector unions will demand higher pay increases to compensate for accelerating inflation, heaping pressure on the chancellor to find billions of pounds in extra funding.

The government made recommendations in December for a 2.8% pay rise for teachers, NHS staff and other public sector workers for the financial year beginning in April, saying it was a “reasonable amount” given forecasts for the economy.

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Unambiguously bleak Bank of England forecasts pave way for spending cuts

Weak jobs market and above-target inflation will dent Reeves’s growth plans and may wipe out fiscal headroom

With the public finances tight and Rachel Reeves having pledged to balance the books, interest rate cuts are one of the few levers that could boost the UK’s economic growth in the short term, and the chancellor will be glad of the Bank of England’s quarter-point reduction on Thursday – and the clear signal that it is now in cutting mode.

Seven of the monetary policy committee’s (MPC) nine members backed the quarter-point drop, taking the Bank’s policy rate to 4.5%, while two wanted to be more “activist”, proposing a half-point cut. The Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said the MPC would be “taking a gradual and careful approach to reducing rates further”.

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