250,000 more people will face relative poverty after Rachel Reeves’ benefits cuts, DWP says – spring statement live

Department for Work and Pensions says thousands, including children, will be hit by chancellor’s announcement, as OBR forecasts UK growth to halve in 2025

Rachel Reeves will not be raising taxes in the spring statement today, even though there are many people on the left who would prefer taxes to rise as an alternative to public spending being cut. Reeves came into office promising only one budget-type event a year, and that is one reason why she is not hiking taxes today. But mainly it’s because she thinks Britons are relatively highly taxed already, because Labour was elected on a manifesto ruling out most of the obvious possible tax rises and because she’s not convinced a sweeping wealth tax would work.

But that has not stopped campaigners calling for a wealth tax, and yesterday about 300 people attended a ‘Tax the Super-Rich’ rally outside the Treasury. It was organised by charities and social justice campaign groups, but one of the speakers was Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green party, which is in favour of a wealth tax.

Across the country, inequality is soaring and people are being left behind, struggling to make ends meet and dealing with broken public services, all while the very richest get richer. Choosing to make cut after cut to the poorest and most marginalised, while leaving the vast resource of the extreme wealth of the super rich untouched, is immoral, harmful, and will not deliver for our communities or the economy.

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‘As real as it can get’: EU to loan €150bn for European defence from invasion

EU launches scheme to buy more weapons in Europe as Russia remains ‘a threat for the foreseeable future’

Europe needs to be able to deter potential invaders by 2030, the EU executive has said as it launched a push to buy more weapons in the bloc and from allied countries, rather than from the US.

The UK, US and Turkey will be excluded from defence contracts funded by a €150bn (£125bn) EU loans programme, unless they sign a security and defence partnership agreement with the EU.

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Former Bank of England deputy warns Rachel Reeves against kneejerk cuts

Charlie Bean says OBR forecasts are ‘flaky’ and cautions against trying to hit targets five years away

The former Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean has warned the chancellor against making kneejerk cuts in next week’s spring statement to try to hit fiscal targets that are five years away.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to slash spending, including on disability benefits, in response to weaker forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – prompting a backlash from within her own party.

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Germany to reach out to France and UK over sharing of nuclear weapons

But Friedrich Merz cautions such a move could not replace the US’s existing protective shield over Europe

Germany’s chancellor-to-be, Friedrich Merz, has said he will reach out to France and Britain to discuss the sharing of nuclear weapons, but cautioned that such a move could not be a replacement for the US’s existing protective shield over Europe.

“The sharing of nuclear weapons is an issue we need to talk about,” Merz said in a wide-ranging interview on Sunday with the broadcaster Deutschlandfunk (DLF). “We have to be stronger together in nuclear deterrence.”

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‘Military Keynesianism’? Reeves faces British defence dilemma after EU spending surge

Even Berlin and Brussels are bending fiscal rules in the face of Russia’s threat. Will the chancellor still stick to hers?

As the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas quipped during the 2008 financial crisis: “I guess everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole.” Donald Trump’s upending of the postwar security consensus has underlined the enduring wisdom of Lucas’s observation. But now, instead of bank bailouts and emergency bond buying, European firepower is being directed at bombs, tanks and drones in the desperate fight to secure the continent’s border with Russia.

Berlin and Brussels – typically capitals of financial orthodoxy – have been convinced that this approach is required once again. Under the plan put forward by Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, Berlin is on the brink of relaxing its “debt brake” rule to pave the way for spending on defence and infrastructure worth an additional €1tn (£840bn) over the coming decade.

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Keir Starmer’s poll ratings leap after Trump withdraws support for Ukraine

Around 30% of voters say they prefer Labour for dealing with ‘allies against threats to the UK’ in boost to party leader

Keir Starmer’s approval ratings have shot up since Donald Trump returned to the White House and shocked Europe by withdrawing political and military support for Ukraine, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Starmer’s Labour government as a whole has also gained public support for its response to the global turbulence caused by Trump’s return – on security and economic issues. His personal ratings have risen by 10% – albeit from an alarmingly low point – compared with a month ago.

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US support to maintain UK’s nuclear arsenal is in doubt, experts say

Malcolm Rifkind joins diplomats and analysts urging focus on European cooperation to replace Trident

Britain’s ability to rely on the US to maintain the UK’s nuclear arsenal is now in doubt, experts have warned, but working with European states to replace it will be costly and take time.

An existing debate about the future of Trident – Britain’s ageing submarine-launched nuclear missile system – has taken a dramatic new turn in recent weeks amid fears Donald Trump could pull out of Nato.

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American severance may be averted, but Europe’s leaders must fear the worst

Head-spinning speed of events leaves EU adapting at pace while trying to infer Trump’s possible geo-strategic aims

With a mixture of regret, laced with incredulity, European leaders gathered in Brussels to marshal their forces for a power struggle not with Russia, but with the US.

Even now, of course at the 11th hour, most of Europe hopes this coming battle of wills can be averted and the Trump administration can still be persuaded that forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table, disarmed and blinded, will not be the US’s long-term strategic interest.

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Starmer welcomes Zelenskyy’s offer to work with Trump on Ukraine peace deal – as it happened

PM says any deal must be ‘lasting and secure’ following fiery Trump-Zelenskyy meeting last week and UK weekend summit. This live blog is closed

Lisa O’Carroll is the Guardian’s acting Ireland correspondent.

Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s first minister, has described a decision to build thousands of lightweight missiles for Ukraine in a Belfast factory as “incredulous”.

I find it really incredulous that at a time when public services are being cut left, right and centre.

At a time when we have endured 14 years of austerity ... I think at a time like that, rather than buying weapons of war, I would rather see the money invested in public services.

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Rachel Reeves vows to use defence spending to support UK’s ‘left behind’ industrial towns

Chancellor says increased military spending should support ‘British jobs and British industries’

Rachel Reeves has said UK companies and jobs will be prioritised under the government’s plans for a significant increase in defence spending, with an aim to support “left behind” industrial towns and the economy at large.

Announced by Keir Starmer last week amid growing fears over Donald Trump’s commitment to European security, the government will increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 – worth an additional £6bn a year.

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Trump commitment to peace in Ukraine sincere, Starmer says, but minerals deal not enough to provide US security guarantee – live

Prime minister says UK must strengthen relationship with US for security

As Jakub Krupa and Martin Belam report on our Europe live blog, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, is floating proposals for a month-long ceasefire in Ukraine covering air, sea and attacks on critical infrastructure.

In interviews this morning, Luke Pollard, the defence minister, played down reports that this is a plan that Britain is formally backing. Asked about French government claims to this effect, he replied:

No agreement has been made on what a truce looks like, and so I don’t recognise the precise part you mentioned there. But we are working together with France and our European allies to look at what is the path to how … we create a lasting and durable peace in Ukraine.

You wouldn’t expect me to get into the details of what that plan looks like, because at the moment, the only person that would benefit from those details being put in the public domain before any plan is agreed would be President Putin.

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How do we make Europe more secure? Here are five steps we need to take now

Europe can’t wait to react to Trump’s mood swings but must show we have the will and the wallet to take back control

Ukraine war live

It’s exhausting and humiliating to have no control – watching every meeting in the Oval Office for a glimmer of Trump’s approval or displeasure, our security resting on a perceived slight or a mood.

The last week of meetings between Trump, Macron, Starmer and finally Zelenskyy always felt like crawling across a minefield. Some might agonise about whether Zelenskyy could have played things differently. It’s the wrong question. The point is that we can’t carry on being so dependent on every meeting at the White House. Until we start taking charge of our future, we will always be one heart palpitation away from dreading doomsday.

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Anneliese Dodds resigns over Keir Starmer’s decision to cut aid budget

Exclusive: International development minister warns it will be ‘impossible’ to retain funding in Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine

Anneliese Dodds, the international development minister, has quit her post over Keir Starmer’s decision to slash the international aid budget by almost half to pay for an increase in defence spending, warning it could enable Russia and China to further their global influence.

The senior Labour MP, who attended cabinet, predicted that the UK pulling back from development would bolster Moscow, which has already been aggressively increasing its presence worldwide, as well as encourage Beijing’s attempts to rewrite global rules.

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Cuts to UK vaccine funding could lead to ‘huge numbers’ of child deaths overseas

Exclusive: Hundreds of thousands of world’s poorest children could die if aid programme slashed, experts warn

Hundreds of thousands of children in the world’s poorest countries will die if the UK cuts back funding for a hugely effective vaccination programme as part of its significant reduction in overseas aid, the Guardian has been told.

According to data collated by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi), to which the UK has previously been one of the main contributors, even a small cut in UK funding would be expected to result in millions fewer vaccinations, leading to huge numbers of preventable deaths.

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Starmer to hold talks with Zelenskyy and Meloni before Ukraine defence summit

Prime minister will host more than a dozen countries over weekend as Europe tries to secure deal to end war

Keir Starmer will hold talks with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni in Downing Street on Sunday before a major London defence summit aimed at securing “lasting and enforced” peace in Ukraine.

Fresh from his trip to see Donald Trump in the White House on Thursday, Starmer has headed back to London to host the defence summit, where more than a dozen world leaders will gather to discuss Ukraine.

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Russia could reinvade Ukraine without US security guarantees, Starmer warns

UK prime minister faces major diplomatic effort to get president on board after he said no plans for US ‘backstop’

Keir Starmer has warned that Vladimir Putin could invade Ukraine again unless the US provides security guarantees as he arrived for critical talks with Donald Trump at the most precarious moment for European stability in decades.

With the future of Ukrainian security hanging in the balance, he urged the president to commit a US backstop to a British and French-led peacekeeping force, saying it was the only way to avoid Russia plunging Europe back into war.

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Badenoch challenges Starmer over defence spending and Chagos deal ahead of his Trump meeting – UK politics live

PM fields questions on his announcement that the UK will raise defence spending and cut the foreign aid budget

PMQs is about to start.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

The threat from the far right is real, but that leaves me all the more convinced that working together is not only the right choice, but the only choice …

More unites us than divides us. Now is the moment to make that real by uniting behind shared values, shared standards of behaviour and shared political norms, and unite against the rise of the far right.

I want us to work together to agree a common approach to asserting the values of our country, to bringing people together and creating a cohesive society where everyone feels at home …

It is time to come together, to draw a line in the sand, to set out who we are and what we believe in, because a politics of fear is a politics of despair …

I want to work with other political parties to set out clearly and boldly to the public what we can agree on as the norms and the values of our society and how we can protect those because I think they are under threat, I think they’re under very, very vigorous threat, from the politics of Farage.

Farage has been for years leading the argument which has been hostile to migration. And I think it’s based on a fundamentally racist view of the world. I reject that. I think migration is an advantage for Scotland.

There is a very live and active threat to our security from the aggression of Russia, and I think Farage is an accomplice to the Russian agenda and an apologist for the Russian agenda.

So to anybody in this country who thinks that Farage represents a means of protecting this country from the external threats that we face, I would say, have a good close look at what Farage has been connected with and what his MPs are saying about the Russian threat and their trivialisation of the Russian threat.

I’m simply making the point today that it’s important that those of us who are repulsed by the politics of Farage and the far right come together to … stress the importance of the values that we hold dear.

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Starmer can only hope slashing aid to boost defence wins Trump’s favour

PM’s Washington trip clear impetus for abrupt news of budget switch to meet defence commitment by 2027

Before Keir Starmer’s meeting with Donald Trump on Thursday, the prime minister thought it necessary to offer the president a gift. Britain’s defence spending will increase by 0.17 percentage points to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, he told MPs in a hastily arranged Commons statement. The money, he added, would be taken directly from the overseas aid budget, whose level will be cut by nearly half to 0.3%.

The last measure is a remarkable turn for a Labour government. Uncomfortably, it comes at a time when Donald Trump wants to shut down perhaps the entire $40bn US aid budget – and at a stroke eliminates a signature commitment from the Blair-Brown years. It was back in 2004, when Tony Blair was prime minister, that Labour first committed to increasing aid spending to 0.7% of GDP.

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Starmer slashes aid to fund major increase in defence spending

Announcement prompts concerns that PM is pandering to US president and warnings over consequences of aid cuts

Keir Starmer has announced that Britain will “fight for peace in Europe” with a generational increase in defence spending paid for by slashing the foreign aid budget.

The move, just two days before the prime minister is due to meet Donald Trump, raised immediate concerns that he was pandering to the US president, and fury from aid groups that say it could cost lives in countries that rely on UK support.

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Starmer unlikely to unveil plan for rise in defence spending this week, says minister

Bridget Phillipson calls 2.5% target ‘ambitious’ days before PM meets with Donald Trump in Washington

Keir Starmer is unlikely to set out a plan this week for when the UK will increase its defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, a cabinet minister has indicated.

The education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, said the target was ambitious, despite Labour previously claiming it would set out a path to meeting the spending goal after the strategic defence review in the spring.

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