Tories attack BBC for questioning farming lobby’s inheritance tax claims – UK politics live

Row over issue continues with questions likely at PMQs as Angela Rayner faces shadow minister Alex Burghart

Good morning. Keir Starmer is travelling back from the G20 summit in Brazil, but he won’t be in the Commons in time for PMQs, and so Angela Rayner, the deputy prime minister, will be taking questions on his behalf. In line with recent practice, Kemi Badenoch, the new Conservative leader, won’t go up against a deputy, and she will miss the session too. The Tories don’t have a deputy leader, but Badenoch is getting Alex Burghart, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, to stand in for her.

The PM might not be answering, but that does not mean the questions get any easier. The situation in Ukraine is looking increasingly perilous, inflation is going up, and figures out yesterday have reignited the row about the government’s decision to cut the winter fuel payment. But the Conservatives may also want to ask about farmers, and the plan to extend inheritance tax to some farms. Traditonally the Tories have liked to think of themselves as a pro-countryside, pro-farming party, and they will have been reassured by the fact that, when they lined up alongside farmers at yesterday’s rally, they did not just have Jeremy Clarkson with them; the Liberal Democrats, the Green party, Greenpeace and even Just Stop Oil were on the farmers’ side too.

The job of BBC Verify is to do exactly that but they’ve failed on their own terms.

The government is refusing to say how many family farms are subject to their tax raid, only offering partial and out of date statistics which fail to account for the full scale of their reforms.

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Starmer and Badenoch congratulate Trump on ‘historic election victory’ – UK politics live

Both PM and leader of the opposition offer congratulations with more full-throated support from Tory rightwingers such as Truss and Braverman

Another Labour politician who has criticised Donald Trump strongly in the past is Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary when Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader and now chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee. In an interview on the Today programme this morning she said Trump’s victory (or apparent victory – he still has not officially hit 270 electoral college votes) was “disappointing”, and that it made the world “unpredictable”.

When it was put to her that she described him as a “racist, sexual predator” when he visited the UK during his first term as president, she replied:

Well, he is. But he is the president of the United States, and we need to work with him.

I know that many Londoners will be anxious about the outcome of the US presidential election. Many will be fearful about what it will mean for democracy and for women’s rights, or how the result impacts the situation in the Middle East or the fate of Ukraine. Others will be worried about the future of NATO or tackling the climate crisis …

The lesson of today is that progress is not inevitable. But asserting our progressive values is more important than ever - re-committing to building a world where racism and hatred is rejected, the fundamental rights of women and girls are upheld, and where we continue to tackle the crisis of climate change head on.

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Angela Rayner defends right of activists to campaign in US elections after criticism from Donald Trump – UK politics live

Comment follows accusation from Trump campaign that Labour staffers had been interfering in US election

The Labour party has put out a statement rejecting allegations that it broke US election law because activists and staff members have been volunteering to help the Democrats.

A Labour spokesperson said:

It is common practice for campaigners of all political persuasions from around the world to volunteer in US elections.

Where Labour activists take part, they do so at their own expense, in accordance with the laws and rules.

We said that because working people had already paid the burden under the last government, we wouldn’t increase the taxes, the main taxes that working people pay, so income tax - all rates - national insurance and VAT. So those taxes that working people pay, we’re not increasing those taxes in the budget.

We go into this budget with a number of challenges - the £22bn black hole just this year, in the public finances, the unfinanced company compensation schemes, for example on infected blood and Horizon, it’s really important that we honour but they weren’t in the forecasts from the previous government.

The fact that the previous government had baked in austerity to our public spending settlements in the years to come, and we committed to not return to austerity.

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PMQs live: Keir Starmer faces Rishi Sunak in the Commons

Latest PMQs comes as sources say chancellor is briefing ministers that £40bn will need to be found in the budget

Robert Jenrick has finished his speech, and he is now taking questions.

Q: Kemi Badenoch says she is Labour’s worst nightmare. Is she right?

I think that our party faces an existential challenge right now. Our party has no divine right to exist. That’s why we need to get the choice right in this leadership election, and that’s why I stand for ending the drama, ending the excuses, and actually delivering for the British people.

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Rachel Reeves says steel is ‘vital part’ of economy before statement about Port Talbot’s Tata plant – UK politics live

British steel industry braced for 2,500 job cuts at the Port Talbot steelworks

Some of Keir Starmer’s critics complain that he overdoes the gloom and negativity when talking about the outlook facing the country. A speech he gave in Downing Street in August is remembered as the ‘things can only get worse’ speech, after he told his audience: “Frankly - things will get worse before we get better.”

But he may be revising the message a bit. Yesterday he held a briefing with Scottish lobby journalists in Downing Street, embargoed until today, and, according to the PA Media report, he told them his government offered a “big message of hope”, despite having had to make decisions which “appear gloomy and hard”.

There is massive hope in this, what we want to do, the change we want to bring about is massive.

It is to make sure the economy is not only growing but growing across the whole of the United Kingdom, including in Scotland, which will be measured in living standards rising, people feeling better off in a material way.

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Priti Patel knocked out of Tory leadership race with Robert Jenrick securing most votes in first round – UK politics live

Former home secretary finishes behind Mel Stride after only securing 14 votes

PMQs is starting soon. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Kemi Badenoch is the clear favourite of Conservative members for next leader, and will be very hard to beat if she makes it into the final ballot of two, according to a survey by ConservativeHome.

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General election 2024: Sunak says Labour taking victory for granted as Starmer calls on voters to ‘stop the chaos’ on 4 July – as it happened

Prime minister announces early summer election with date putting parties on campaign trail for six weeks

In an interview with Sky News this morning, Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, was asked if the UK would follow Ireland, Spain and Norway in formally recognising a Palestinian state. No, he replied. He told Sky:

We have a long-standing position on this that we will be prepared to recognise the state of Palestine at the time that it most helps the peace process, and we will continue to keep that under review.

We will continue to keep that under review. But our position is that this is not the right time to do it at the moment.

Dubbed “Sue’s shit list” by one senior Labour official, it has been drawn up by the former civil servant to identify the most immediate problems Labour would face in office if it wins the election expected this year.

Senior Labour officials said that any one of the areas on Gray’s “government risk register” could puncture a honeymoon period for a new administration led by Sir Keir Starmer.

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Labour says it ‘beggars belief’ police told to arrest fewer people because of prison overcrowding – UK politics live

Shadow justice secretary says Conservatives have ‘badly mismanaged criminal justice system’ as memo sent to chief constables by police chiefs

At the end of last week, in a long read on the state of play in the Conservative party, the Financial Times mentioned a rumour that Rishi Sunak might announce an election today.

In this surreal pre-election period rumours swirl, the latest unlikely one being that Sunak could bring the uncertainty to an end and call a snap election next Wednesday, when new data is expected by some economists to show inflation falling below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.

Jeremy Hunt not doing much to dispel Westminster rumours that Sunak could call election off back of inflation figures.

“Well that’s a matter for the prime minister, it’s not a matter for me,” he tells #Today.

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UK politics: I never called for rainbow lanyard ban, claims Esther McVey – as it happened

‘Common sense minister’ denies plan to Channel 4 News despite saying earlier this week that lanyards should be a ‘standard design’

Labour says the Ministry of Justice’s decision to delay court hearings because of prison overcrowing (see 10.39am) shows that people are “less safe” under the Tories. That’s a very convenient retort to Rishi Sunak, because only two days ago he gave a major speech arguing that security was a key reason why his party deserved to win the election.

In a statement, Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, said:

The Tories continue to make major and unprecedented changes to the justice system without so much as a word to the public. It’s completely unacceptable and the public will be alarmed at this latest panic measures.

The government is stalling justice and leaving victims in limbo because of the mess they have created. This comes days after they hid from the public that they’re now letting criminals out of jail earlier than ever before.

The government is completely failing [on knife crime]. We’ve had an 80% increase since 2015 and rises all around the country. That’s the first point.

On stop and search, that is intelligence lead and evidence-based and is a really important tool. We’ve had, for example, the Inspectorate of Constabulary, an independent organisation, looking at this saying that what’s essential is that it is done in that targeted way.

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Labour defends welcoming rightwing Tory MP Natalie Elphicke into party – UK politics live

Natalie Elphicke said she was defecting to Labour due to ‘broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government’

PMQs starts in just over 20 minutes, and today there will be particular interest in the mood on the Conservative benches. Rishi Sunak has actively embraced the theory that the local election results show Labour is not on course to win an overall majority, but this is based on a projection that has been widely dismissed as unrealistic.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

It’s an issue of humanity and I think you’ve got to show equivalence. I condemn unequivocally the actions of Hamas on Oct 7; those 134 hostages must be released. At the same time I condemn unequivocally the actions of the IDF and Netanyahu; 34,000 people have perished including 14,000 children.

It’s utterly wrong and an insult to those victims to equate the brutality of Hamas to the legitimate military measures that Israel is taking in defence of its people and nation.

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Sunak claims defence spending plan won’t affect government’s ability to cut taxes – UK politics live

Prime minister gives joint press conference with Olaf Scholz and denies misleading people over spending plans

With Rishi Sunak in Berlin, it is deputies’ day at PMQs, and Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, will be facing questions from Angela Rayner, Labour’s deputy leader. It will be her first time at the despatch box since it was announced that Greater Manchester is fully investigating various allegations relating to the council house she bought and sold before she became an MP, and where she was living during that period. It has been reported that at least a dozen officers are on the case.

Rayner does not have to firm up her position with Labour MPs. She insists that she has done nothing wrong, and most people in the party believe that that the allegtions being made against her are little more than a smear (as Keir Starmer put it at PMQs last week).

Frank was a steadfast, highly successful and diligent campaigner against child poverty. It is largely down to Frank that we have child benefit today, a truly towering achievement.

He gained support and respect from across the political spectrum and defined the concept of the ‘poverty trap’, now commonly used to describe the difficulties for working people of getting better off while claiming means-tested benefits because of the high rate at which benefits are withdrawn as earnings rise.

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Angela Rayner tells ministers to focus on no-fault evictions, not her house sale

Deputy Labour leader also criticises watering-down of leasehold reform plans while facing Oliver Dowden at deputy PMQs

Angela Rayner has accused ministers of “obsessing” over her living arrangements and urged them to focus on implementing long-promised housing reforms instead.

The deputy Labour leader came out fighting at deputy prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, weeks after police opened an investigation into the sale of her council house in 2015.

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Government suffers seven defeats on Rwanda bill as peers vote to tighten safeguards – UK politics live

Lords back amendments saying bill must comply with international law, on classifying Rwanda as a safe country and independent monitoring

Yesterday I covered quite a lot of comment on the Rachel Reeves’ Mais lecture based on a three-page press release sent out by Labour with advance extracts. The full speech runs to 8,000 words and it is certainly worth a read. Here is some commentary published after the full text was made public.

Paul Mason, the former economics journalist who is now an active Labour supporter, says in a blog for the Spectator that Reeves is proposing an approach that should make it easier for the government to justify capital investment. He explains:

Reeves effectively offered markets a trade-off. She set out the same broad fiscal rule as the government: debt falling at the end of five years and a deficit moving towards primary balance. She will make it law that any fiscal decision by government will be subject to an independent forecast of its effects by the OBR. But, she said: “I will also ask the OBR to report on the long-term impact of capital spending decisions. And as Chancellor I will report on wider measures of public sector assets and liabilities at fiscal events, showing how the health of the public balance sheet is bolstered by good investment decisions.”

Why is this so big? Because the OBR does not currently model the ‘long-term impact of capital spending decisions’. It believes that £1 billion of new capital investment produces £1 billion of growth in the first year, tapering to nothing by year five. Furthermore, since 2019 it has repeatedly expressed scepticism that a sustained programme of public investment can produce a permanent uplift in the UK’s output potential.

George Eaton at the New Statesman says the Reeves speech contained Reeves’ “most explicit repudiation yet of the model pursued by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s governments”. He says:

In her 8,000-word Mais Lecture, delivered last night at City University, the shadow chancellor offered her most explicit repudiation yet of the model pursued by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s governments. Though she praised New Labour’s record on public service investment and poverty reduction, Reeves warned that the project failed to recognise that “globalisation and new technologies could widen as well as diminish inequality, disempower people as much as liberate them, displace as well as create good work”.

She added that the labour market “remained characterised by too much insecurity” and that “key weaknesses on productivity and regional inequality” persisted. This is not merely an abstract critique – it leads Reeves and Keir Starmer to embrace radically different economic prescriptions.

Mais lecture is the most intellectually wide-ranging speech Rachel Reeves has given. Worth reading for takes on Lawson, austerity, New Labour, link between dynamism & worker-security, and how geo-politics changes our national growth story (& more besides)

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Budget 2024 live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance, abolishes non-dom status and raises child benefit threshold

NI cut of 2p announced, along with new tax on vapes, end of tax relief for holiday lettings and more cash for NHS IT system

Jeremy Hunt is expected to extend the windfall tax on energy companies in the budget to help fund his national insurance cut. Extending the windfall tax is a Labour proposal that the Tories used to dismiss, and, according to a Daily Telegraph story, Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is so angry about the move that colleagues thought he might resign. Ross is MP for Moray, in the north-east of Scotland, and he is worried that the potential impact on the oil and gas industry in Scotland will cost the party votes.

In their story, Nick Gutteridge, Dominic Penna and Simon Johnson say Ross had a row with Rishi Sunak about this at a reception on Sunday night. They report:

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives had doggedly sought out Mr Sunak across the crowded, stifling room, determined to give him a piece of his mind about the Treasury’s plans to extend the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas giants for an extra year.

What followed was a “heated” discussion between the pair, with Mr Ross warning the move would hammer the Tory vote north of the border and the prime minister countering that it was necessary to deliver a National Insurance cut for millions of workers.

Glen O’Hara, professor of modern history at Oxford Brookes University, points to the gaping trade deficit left for Labour in 1964, when outgoing Tory Chancellor Reginald Maudling infamously left a note for his successor reading: “Good luck, old cock … sorry to leave it in such a mess.”

Conservative Chancellor Norman Lamont’s pre-election budget in 1992 introduced a lower rate of income tax which Labour opposed, allowing the Tories to portray them as a “high-tax party.” The Tories unexpectedly went on to win the subsequent poll.

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Tory and SNP anger as speaker allows Labour’s amendment on Gaza ceasefire vote – UK politics live

Move will help Keir Starmer head off threatened rebellion from his MPs

New 20mph limits are helping cut speeds and will save lives, the Welsh government has insisted. PA Media says:

Drivers are travelling on average 4mph slower on main roads in Wales since the rollout of a new lower speed limit for built-up areas, data collected by Transport for Wales (TfW) shows.

The Welsh Labour government, which implemented the change in September last year, insists the lower speeds will lead to fewer collisions and people injured.

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Wes Streeting says Labour would reform NHS dentists’ contract within days of taking office – UK politics live

Shadow health secretary says much of Tory NHS dental plans ‘lifted from what Labour has announced’

During her media round this morning Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, faced awkward questions about funding for NHS dentistry.

In an interview on BBC Breakfast, she repeatedly refused to confirm that the budget for NHS dentistry has fallen over the past decade.

Seeing a minister duck and dive on the reality of dental funding cuts will be hard to swallow for millions who have been left waiting for so long under this government.

The reality is they’ve left our dental services to rot and now think they can rebuild it with a handful of toothpicks.

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Dublin not expecting EU objections to new trade rules for Northern Ireland – UK politics live

Irish foreign minister says he does ‘not anticipate any particular difficulties in respect of the EU side’

Back at the home affairs committee James Daly (Con) asks why so few police investigations end up in people being charged.

James Cleverly, the home secretary, says the Crown Prosecution Service is independent. He wants to make sure investigations are as professional as possible.

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‘This is getting silly’: senior Tories criticise Simon Clarke after he calls for Sunak’s resignation – UK politics live

Clarke, a Truss ally, says Tory party should ditch PM ahead of general election

In posts on X, Beth Rigby, the Sky News political editor, says that even though Tory MPs are not supporting Simon Clarke in public, in private the mood is febrile.

We reported ‘several’ no confidence letters in after Rwanda vote @SimonClarkeMP 2nd MP to publicly call for PM to go in order to ‘avoid election massacre’ He’s been rebuked by Fox, Patel, Davis. But Tory source tells me Clarke only saying “what everyone knows but won’t say out loud” & says scores of MPs privately agree 1/

But no sense to this picking up momentum. Sources say Clarke took decision alone cos he wants “to be honest & open about talks which been in private for months”. Another MP tells me says this being driven by handful of MPs in ‘five families grouping’ and it’s an “operation like one of those farmyard vehicles, which just spends time spreading muck everywhere…” 2/

But amongst MPs in marginal seats, am told there’s lots of ‘chatter’ & circulation of Franklin piece on @ConHome

Senior MP on right tells me 2 by-elex Feb 15 could be a ‘watershed moment’: “If we get slaughtered, the herd might well panic” > it’s very febrile

To insist that Sunak remains in place means assuming one of two things: firstly, that his basic political strategy is commensurate with the challenges facing us a party; or, secondly, that he can successfully execute a change of direction. If, in either respect, that is what you do believe then I’d love to see your evidence; but if you don’t, then what possible reason could there be for sticking with Sunak?

Well, there is one justification. It rests upon the fatalistic assumption that it’s too late to avoid defeat: changing strategies won’t work, nor will changing leaders. We’re therefore better off having the next leadership contest — and a fundamental rethink — in opposition.

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Rwanda bill vote: Tory rebels have not shown amendments are legally robust, No 10 says – live

Sunak’s press secretary says Downing Street not shown legal basis for rebel amendments, despite this being offered and asked for

Rishi Sunak starts with the usual spiel about his engagements, and how he has got meetings with colleagues.

Rishi Sunak is taking PMQs in 10 minutes.

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