Rachel Reeves has promised not to raise taxes, so how can she fill budget coffers?

Chancellor said to be planning measures including raising employer NI contributions and capital gains tax rates. We consider the likelihood of each and the potential for a row

During the general election campaign, Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal studies repeatedly accused both main parties of indulging in a “conspiracy of silence” over their economic policies. Neither Labour nor the Tories would admit, he complained, that if they won they would have to announce huge tax rises or spending cuts to restore the public finances to anything resembling good health.

On Wednesday, 118 days after Labour won the election, Rachel Reeves will prove Johnson right. In her first budget she will spell out plans to raise an eye-watering sum of about £40bn from tax rises and spending reductions to wipe the slate clean and to pump funds into public services. She will also confirm changes to debt rules that will release up to £50bn more to borrow for long-term investment in new national infrastructure.

Continue reading...

Surprise fall in UK inflation badly timed for benefit recipients

Payments such as universal credit linked to previous September’s figure, meaning a rise of just 1.7% in April

Last month’s surprise fall in UK inflation lands with bad timing for millions of people who receive state benefits linked to the figure, who can now expect their payments to rise by just 1.7% next April.

A number of benefits, including universal credit, are increased each tax year in line with the cost of living figure for the previous September.

Continue reading...

‘Tough decisions’ needed, Starmer tells cabinet, as he defends changes to winter fuel payments – UK politics live

PM and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, defend move to restrict payment to only the poorest pensioners

Like the Telegraph (see 11.25am), the Times has also published a new article with a Tory endorsement for Kemi Badenoch, but this one is potentially more significant. Margaret Thatcher is no longer with us, but for Conservative party members she is still the one figure from the party’s recent past whose authority is more or less unquestioned and Peter Lilley has written an article claiming that Badenoch would be a worthy inheritor of her mantle. He says Thatcher was a scientist, and Badenoch is an engineering graduate. Like Thatcher, Badenoch is focused on facts, and what works, he says. He goes on:

Leadership candidates are under great pressure to make popular pledges, to abolish specific taxes or set a numerical limit on immigration. Kemi, rightly in my view, has refused to do so. Voters want lower taxes and much less immigration (as do I), but they have seen every glib promise broken. To convince them, a new leader will need to show first, that policies have been rigorously worked out in practical terms and second, that we truly believe in them rather than adopting them to win votes. As Margaret Thatcher said: “To carry conviction, you must have conviction.”

Conviction is the fruit of hard-nosed scepticism. Kemi’s approach is similar to Margaret Thatcher’s, for whom I once worked. When ministers took a policy to her which was in line with all her prejudices, expecting instant approval, she would tear into it, challenging every weakness. Only when satisfied that a policy was totally robust would she take it on board – but then she pursued it with unwavering conviction. Kemi is likewise willing to challenge, criticise and expose weaknesses, which does not endear her to everyone. But we cannot afford to go on adopting half-baked, unworkable policies.

We can rage at Labour’s actions, but the public won’t listen to our narrative – unless we have a leader who can communicate.

Kemi Badenoch is that person. She is blessed with that rare gift in politics: the X-factor that means she can not only communicate but achieve all important ‘cut-through’, so that the public actually notice.

Continue reading...

Up to 50 Labour MPs could rebel over cut to winter fuel allowance

Dozens said to be considering abstaining from Tuesday’s vote over pensioners’ payments, as PM says dealing with dissent is ‘matter for chief whip’

As many as 50 Labour MPs could refuse to back the government’s controversial plan to cut the winter fuel allowance, despite Keir Starmer urging back benchers to get behind a measure he has conceded is “unpopular”.

While few on the government benches are expected to vote against the policy in Tuesday’s vote, dozens are believed to be considering abstaining or being absent – though rebels say the numbers in their ranks are very hard to predict.

Continue reading...

Priti Patel knocked out of Tory leadership race with Robert Jenrick securing most votes in first round – UK politics live

Former home secretary finishes behind Mel Stride after only securing 14 votes

PMQs is starting soon. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

Kemi Badenoch is the clear favourite of Conservative members for next leader, and will be very hard to beat if she makes it into the final ballot of two, according to a survey by ConservativeHome.

Continue reading...

Ministers launch pension credit campaign after restricting winter fuel payments

Government urges pensioners to check their eligibility for credit which will also qualify recipients for winter fuel support

Ministers have launched a pension credit publicity campaign to minimise the impact of the government’s decision to radically restrict winter fuel payments.

Last month the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, introduced a means test for the winter fuel payments, which have been a universal benefit available to all pensioners since 1997, so that only those on pension credit would qualify, as part of the “difficult decisions” she had to make having inherited a “dire state of public finances” from the Conservatives.

Continue reading...

Macron told ‘people detest you’ as far-right bids to be biggest party in France

Centrists are fighting for their survival in Sunday’s poll, amid fears the president’s snap election has unleashed chaos

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping was fighting for survival this weekend before the first round of France’s high-stakes snap election, which could see the far-right National Rally (RN) become the biggest force in parliament.

Macron, who warned last week that France risked “civil war” if Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration RN, or the leftwing New Popular Front coalition, came to power, said at the European summit in Brussels that “uninhibited racism and antisemitism” had been unleashed in France.

Continue reading...

Tory welfare reform cost working-age families thousands while pensioners benefited – report

Retirees or those on disability benefit are biggest annual winners, while large families are £4,600 worse off, says Resolution Foundation

Pensioners and people on disability benefits are the winners from radical changes to the welfare system made by the Tories over the last decade, while working-age families are losing out by thousands of pounds every year, according to a report by the Resolution Foundation.

The Conservatives’ 14-year overhaul of social security has shifted spending away from children and housing to supporting elderly people, and broken the link between entitlement and need for some of the poorest households in the country, the report says.

Continue reading...

Labour shifts poll tactics to target fearful Tory over-65s

Alarm grows over possible pension cuts as research suggests Jeremy Hunt tax cut announcement was ‘blunder’

Labour is to wage a new campaign to win over Tory-supporting pensioners in an attempt to neutralise one of the government’s last remaining electoral strengths, amid evidence the Conservatives are now performing as badly among the age group as they did under Liz Truss’s leadership.

With less than a fortnight to go until local elections in England, which some Tories fear could trigger an attempt to topple Rishi Sunak, the Observer understands that Keir Starmer’s top officials are reorienting their campaign after detecting alarm among pensioners over the impact a Conservative tax-cutting pledge could have on pensions and the NHS.

Continue reading...

Labour has 99% chance of forming next government, says elections expert – UK politics live

Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist and lead election analyst for the BBC, said the chances of a Tory revival were small

In the House of Lords peers have just started debating the second reading of the leasehold and freehold reform bill. The bill has already passed through the Commons.

Normally, at this stage of the process, the content of a government bill is all but finalised. But, as No 10 admitted on Monday, the government has still not decided how far it will go in terms of cutting ground rents for existing leaseholders.

Continue reading...

Tory MP Robert Halfon quits as minister and James Heappey confirms resignation, paving way for mini reshuffle – as it happened

Robert Halfon quits as skills, apprenticeships and higher education minister as James Heappey confirms decision to step down

In interviews this morning Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, admitted that special educational needs provision was in crisis, Ben Quinn reports.

Universities in England could be told to terminate their arrangements with foreign countries if freedom of speech and academic freedom is undermined, the government’s free speech tsar has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Arif Ahmed, director for freedom of speech and academic freedom at the Office for Students (OfS), said many universities and colleges in England have “international arrangements” – including admitting overseas students on scholarships and hosting institutes partly funded by foreign governments. PA says:

The higher education regulator launched a consultation on guidance about freedom of speech, ahead of universities, colleges and student unions taking on new free speech duties.

The guidance includes examples to illustrate what higher education institutions may have to do to fulfil their new duties – due to come into effect in August – to secure freedom of speech within the law.

University A accepts international students on visiting scholarships funded by the government of country B. Scholars must accept the principles of the ruling party of country B, and direction from country B’s government via consular staff. Depending on the circumstances, these arrangements may undermine free speech and academic freedom at University A. If so, that university is likely to have to terminate or amend the scholarship agreement.

If it means that there are people who are employed by an institute who are preventing legitimate protests or shutting down lecturers from covering certain kinds of content regarding that country for instance, or that country’s foreign policy … If that behaviour amounts to a restriction of freedom of speech within the law, and someone brings a complaint to us, then we may find that the complaint is justified and then we make recommendations …

If there are problems, universities will have to do everything they can to act compatibly with their freedom-of-speech duties. Insofar as that means a rethinking of their relationship with other countries, obviously that’s something that would be a good idea for them to start thinking about now.

Continue reading...

Thousands of UK women owed pension payout after ombudsman’s Waspi ruling

The way women’s state pension age was raised plunged retirement plans into chaos with many now in line for compensation

Thousands of women are owed compensation because of government failings related to the way changes to the state pension age were made, a long-awaited official report has said.

The Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman (PHSO) said those affected were owed compensation but added that that Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) had clearly indicated it would “refuse to comply”, which was “unacceptable”.

Continue reading...

UK politics: Sunak refuses to say how abolition of national insurance would be funded – as it happened

PM says ‘people trust me on these things’ and refuses to be drawn on whether government would forgo entire £46bn raised from measure

Keir Starmer has accused Jeremy Hunt of repeating the budget mistakes made by Liz Truss during her disastrous premiership.

In comments on the budget during a visit to a building site this morning, Starmer focused on Hunt’s proposal to abolish employees’ national insurance over time, saying that this was a bigger unfunded tax promise than those in Truss’s mini-budget. (See 9.28am.)

How humiliating was that for the government yesterday?

We’ve argued for years that they should get rid of the non-dom tax status, they’ve resisted that. And now, completely out of ideas, the only decent policy they’ve got is the one that they’ve lifted from us.

Nothing that Jeremy Hunt did yesterday, nor anything the OBR said, changes anything very significantly. Which is a shame. Because that means we are still:

-heading for a parliament in which people will on average be worse off at the end than at the start,

Continue reading...

MoD firefighters’ pensions delayed after Capita Group blunders

Trade union Unite tells of concerns about 2025 contract to administer civil service pension scheme

Retired firefighters who were responsible for tackling blazes on military bases have been unable to access their full pension due to “numerous” blunders by the outsourcing group Capita, it has emerged.

Capita won a £525m contract to run the Ministry of Defence’s fire and rescue service in 2019, renaming it the Defence Fire and Rescue Project (DFRP) after the privatisation.

Continue reading...

Retired teacher’s pension stopped as provider refuses to believe she is not dead

Payments halted four times and left Eileen McGrath without income over Christmas

A retired teacher has had her pension payments stopped four times because her pension provider repeatedly refuses to accept that she is not dead.

Eileen McGrath, 85, was left without income over Christmas when Teachers’ Pensions, which administers payments on behalf of the UK government, wrongly matched her with a deceased stranger.

Continue reading...

Divorces delayed by cost of living crisis, research finds

Financial pressures have led to postponement of 19% of divorces, involving 270,000 couples, Legal & General claims

The start of the new year is often boom time for divorce lawyers, but 2024 may be different as new research shows the cost of living crisis has delayed more than 270,000 couples from splitting.

Financial pressures delayed 19% of divorces, researchers at Legal & General found. The impact has been particularly pronounced since 2020, with income concerns, cost of living pressures and the price of divorce all cited as reasons to postpone the split.

Continue reading...

No bounce for the Tories after tax-cutting budget, poll shows

Opinium poll for the Observer reveals the public is unimpressed with Jeremy Hunt’s attempt to woo them by trimming national insurance

Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories.

Continue reading...

Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt looks to cut UK taxes and ‘turbo-charge growth’

Amid less gloomy OBR forecasts the chancellor is expected to take first steps towards cutting personal taxes

Jeremy Hunt will announce 110 measures to boost Britain’s stagnant economy and bow to demands from anxious Tory MPs for tax cuts when he delivers his second autumn statement on Wednesday.

In one of the last set-piece economic events before the general election, the chancellor will pledge to “turbo charge” growth while taking the first steps to cut personal taxes after recent sharp increases.

Continue reading...

Huge ethnicity pension gap revealed in UK figures

Shortfalls fuelled by misconceptions and distrust of employers, as well as lack of spare income, figures show

A UK individual from a minority ethnic background typically has a pension pot less than half the size of that belonging to the average white British saver, data reveal.

The research from Legal & General’s investment arm claimed there was a sizeable “ethnicity pensions gap” in the UK that was being fuelled by “misconceptions” around pensions and a “significant distrust of employers”, as well as a lack of spare income.

Continue reading...

Boris Johnson government ‘always hoped’ Northern Ireland protocol would collapse – UK politics live

Lord Frost, Brexit negotiator for former PM, tells House of Lords that government never wanted ‘unsatisfactory’ protocol to work

Rayner says Labour will update trade union laws to make them fit for the 21st century.

The laws affecting union reps and officials do not take into account technological advancements, she says.

First, we will update regulations to outlaw the use of predictive technologies for blacklisting and safeguard against singling out workers for mistreatment or the sack without any evidence of human interaction.

Second, we will act to end the loophole that allows employers to pass the dirty work down to third party contractors, so that any third party found to be carrying out blacklisting can legally be held to account.

The Tories pushed through the 2016 Trade Union Act, preventing fair bargaining and holding back living standards.

And this year they gave us the minimum service levels bill [the Strikes Act] …

Continue reading...