With the Tories beaten, Labour’s next threat comes from even further right

Reform may well be Labour’s new main opponent, and the next battleground may not be where anyone expected

Two key rules of politics are to always look ahead, and to understand your opponent. And so it is that just months after crushing the Conservatives in a general election, many Labour MPs are bracing for fresh challenges and a new foe – Reform UK.

Nigel Farage’s party is in parliamentary terms a minnow, its five MPs giving it little more than 1% of the Commons strength enjoyed by Keir Starmer. But many within Labour believe that by the time of the next election, things could be very different.

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British voters do not like Trump ‘because they don’t really know him’, Farage claims – as it happened

This live blog is closed

Keir Starmer has hosted veterans and charities at Downing Street with defence secretary John Healey in the lead-up to Remembrance Day, PA Media reports. PA says:

The informal reception was held after Starmer pledged £3.5m in support for veterans facing homelessness.

Peter Kent, 99, the oldest veteran at the event, said he was pleased by the increase in funding and described Starmer as a “good guy”.

State visits take a while to organise. So in the next year, I’ve got to tell you, I think that would be a bit of a tall order. But [Trump] was genuine in his respect and his affection for the royal family.

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Keir Starmer tells Brussels press conference it was ‘right’ for him to repay £6,000 worth of gifts – as it happened

Announcement that PM is returning gifts comes after news Labour peer Lord Alli is under investigation by Lords commissioner

Richard Fuller, the Tory chair, is on the conference platform now introducing the morning session.

He starts with thanks to various people who have helped with the conference.

After a frenetic Conference for Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Robert Jenrick the tiredness will be kicking in, but also for the teams of advisers who want, and maybe need, their principal to take another go at delivering the twenty-minute speech of their career.

It’s a four hoarse race.

The problem for the party, and for me, is that none of this gossipy chatter has taken the conference attendees much further forward – nor has any of the four taken conference by storm.

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Ex-defence secretary Grant Shapps says he has seen ‘no evidence’ for Jenrick’s claim about SAS killing terrorists – UK politics live

Senior Tories condemn leadership hopeful’s claim UK special forces are killing terrorists over fears that European laws would free detained assailants

Popular Conservatism, or PopCon, has released the results of a survey of party members suggesting more than half of them favour a merger with Reform UK. Some 30% of the respondents said they tended to support the idea, and 23% were strongly in favour. The survey covered 470 members.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg, PopCon’s head of communications and a former Brexit party MEP, said:

Every Conservative activist and canvasser knows people who had been Tories, but voted Reform UK in July. It is no surprise our panellists understand that the next leader of the party needs to take action to bring many like-minded voters back to the Tories. Almost three-quarters want a relationship with Reform in order to unite the right.

The answer I was often given by people in government at the time was that lockdowns were very popular.

They were getting 60, 70, 80% popularity ratings in the opinion polls. But you mustn’t believe those opinion polls, they’re basically nonsense.

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Reeves’ economy inheritance claim one of Labour’s ‘biggest lies’, Hunt tells Tory conference – UK politics live

The shadow chancellor said he ‘would have died’ to have had the legacy Rachel Reeves had when he took over

Robert Jenrick has used a campaign rally just outside the Conservative conference to paint the issue of migration in highly stark terms, saying his party will “die” if it does not commit to quitting the European convention on human rights. (See 8.23am.)

Speaking to supporters in a studio theatre at Birmingham Rep, Jenrick repeated his styling of the issue in Brexit terms, saying the choice was between the “leave” of leaving the ECHR or “remain” of staying in it, and that this was a chance to “get migration done”.

This is more than just, ‘leave or amend’ – frankly, our party doesn’t have a future unless we take a stand and fix this problem. It’s leave or die for our party – I’m for leave.

Foreign national offenders in our country,who we have struggled to deport because of our membership of the European Convention on Human Rights – that’s the issue I was raising.

What is the biggest challenge we face as a party?

Our biggest strategic challenge is the fact that the average age above which you are more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is now over 60.

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Farage says Tory brand is ‘bust’ as other Reform UK speeches target immigrants, drag queens, vegans and more – as it happened

Lee Anderson, Richard Tice and Nigel Farage give speeches at Reform party conference. This live blog is closed

Richard Partington is the Guardian’s economics correspondent

UK national debt has hit 100% of the country’s annual economic output, the highest level since the 1960s, underscoring the challenge facing the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as she prepares for next month’s budget.

As leader, you’ve got a huge job, because you’re campaigning everywhere. You’re sorting out the professionalisation with the chairman and so we’re sharing and sharing alike and that’s an important part of it. You can’t be everywhere all the time. It’s really difficult. But let me tell you, no one works harder than Nigel Farage.

As a leader of a party that is now becoming mainstream, international affairs, our relationship with our most important, strategic international partner – the US – is very important and the world will be a safer place if Donald Trump wins the presidential election. Nigel’s strong relationship with Donald Trump is actually to the benefit of this country and it’s quite right that he cements and strengthens that.

No one’s got more visibility, frankly, than Nigel on social media. I’m getting millions of views on mine. The other three MPs, likewise. We’re out there. We’re making a noise. Frankly, we are the real opposition. The Tories have vacated the premises, we hardly ever see them in the House of Commons.

I’ve spoken 16 times, I’ve challenged the zealot-in-chief, Ed Miliband. I’ve challenged the home secretary. I’ve challenged the health secretary on the failings of the NHS. So look, we’re holding them to account. That’s what people expect of opposition parties.

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Farage says Reform can win election as conference leans into hard-right tropes

Party will modernise, says leader at Birmingham conference dominated by populist discourse

Nigel Farage has predicted he can win the next general election at a packed Reform UK conference that announced a new structure for the party but also leaned heavily into hard-right tropes and occasional conspiracy theories.

“We can win the next general election just with the numbers of people that agree with our principles,” Farage told cheering supporters in Birmingham.

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‘He could be here more’: Clacton split over Nigel Farage’s first months as MP

Many remain positive about their high-profile politician but others complain that he ‘got his seat and disappeared’

It happened sometime on Monday morning, locals think, though no one seems to know exactly when. But as staff in the shops on Old Road in Clacton stepped out of work for lunch, they spotted that the billboard on the corner of Crossfield Road had been ripped to ribbons.

Plenty had approved of the poster, placed there by the political campaign group Led By Donkeys, drawing attention to the huge scale of the local MP Nigel Farage’s earnings outside politics. A photo of the billboard posted on X by the group has 24,000 likes.

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Reform can learn from Lib Dems on ground campaigning, says Richard Tice

Party’s aim is to build base of local councillors and activists, deputy leader says before conference

Reform UK plans to mimic the Liberal Democrats in building up a national base of councillors and activists to try to expand its support, the party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, has said before its annual conference.

While the mood in Birmingham will be celebratory, with Tice joining Nigel Farage as two of the five Reform MPs elected on 4 July, there could also be some internal dissent over a planned new party constitution, with one senior party figure saying it would allow Farage to act as an “absolute dictator”.

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‘Tough decisions’ needed, Starmer tells cabinet, as he defends changes to winter fuel payments – UK politics live

PM and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, defend move to restrict payment to only the poorest pensioners

Like the Telegraph (see 11.25am), the Times has also published a new article with a Tory endorsement for Kemi Badenoch, but this one is potentially more significant. Margaret Thatcher is no longer with us, but for Conservative party members she is still the one figure from the party’s recent past whose authority is more or less unquestioned and Peter Lilley has written an article claiming that Badenoch would be a worthy inheritor of her mantle. He says Thatcher was a scientist, and Badenoch is an engineering graduate. Like Thatcher, Badenoch is focused on facts, and what works, he says. He goes on:

Leadership candidates are under great pressure to make popular pledges, to abolish specific taxes or set a numerical limit on immigration. Kemi, rightly in my view, has refused to do so. Voters want lower taxes and much less immigration (as do I), but they have seen every glib promise broken. To convince them, a new leader will need to show first, that policies have been rigorously worked out in practical terms and second, that we truly believe in them rather than adopting them to win votes. As Margaret Thatcher said: “To carry conviction, you must have conviction.”

Conviction is the fruit of hard-nosed scepticism. Kemi’s approach is similar to Margaret Thatcher’s, for whom I once worked. When ministers took a policy to her which was in line with all her prejudices, expecting instant approval, she would tear into it, challenging every weakness. Only when satisfied that a policy was totally robust would she take it on board – but then she pursued it with unwavering conviction. Kemi is likewise willing to challenge, criticise and expose weaknesses, which does not endear her to everyone. But we cannot afford to go on adopting half-baked, unworkable policies.

We can rage at Labour’s actions, but the public won’t listen to our narrative – unless we have a leader who can communicate.

Kemi Badenoch is that person. She is blessed with that rare gift in politics: the X-factor that means she can not only communicate but achieve all important ‘cut-through’, so that the public actually notice.

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Nigel Farage revealed to be UK’s highest-earning MP

Reform UK leader banked £1.2m from role as presenter on GB News and payments from social media

Nigel Farage appears to have become the highest-earning MP, having made almost £1.2m a year from GB News.

In the first register of interests of the new parliament, the Reform UK MP declared that he was earning £97,900 a month as a presenter for GB News, the channel co-owned by the hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall.

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Farage ‘irresponsible and dangerous’ during riots, says Tory leader contender

Tom Tugendhat accuses Reform leader of ‘amplifying false information’ about Southport killings

Nigel Farage was “irresponsible and dangerous” to suggest the police were withholding the truth about the Southport attack, Tory leadership contender Tom Tugendhat has said.

The Conservative hopeful, a former security minister, said Farage had been “amplifying false information” by spreading a theory first suggested by influencers like Andrew Tate, and then failed wholly to condemn the riots.

Universities “indulge in ideologies of grievance instead of transmitting knowledge” and “schools, museums and galleries apologise for our country’s history” instead of “celebrating it”.

That “equality of opportunity” had given way to “critical race theory” and the UK has seen the “politicisation of race” in recent years, which he claimed Labour would do nothing to reverse.

A new “national security police force” is needed to deal with counter-terrorism and to replace Scotland Yard’s “confused mix of national and local responsibilities and its reporting to the mayor and the home secretary, with each blaming the other”.

That defining Islamophobia in law was a bad idea, as it was blasphemy laws for one religion only.

Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X, made “delusional” and simply false comments about the UK riots when stating that civil war was inevitable.

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Home secretary calls out ‘shameful behaviour’ of politicians seeking to undermine police – UK politics live

Yvette Cooper says government will work with police rather than ‘blaming them from afar’

Phillip Inman and Graeme Wearden report:

The UK should not be “seduced” into thinking the battle to calm inflation is over despite price rises easing to the Bank of England’s target, according to an interest rate setter at the central bank.

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Reform UK chair was member of Conservatives until last week

Exclusive: Zia Yusuf’s membership remained active until last week, when it was revoked after being pointed out by the Guardian

The chair of Reform UK, Zia Yusuf, was a member of the Conservatives until last week when party officials were approached by the Guardian.

Richard Fuller, the Conservative party chair, emailed Yusuf to tell him his membership had been revoked last Friday afternoon, after the Guardian asked the party whether it was still active.

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Priti Patel criticises Nigel Farage for comparing far-right riots to BLM protests

Tory leadership candidate says Reform leader’s comments are deeply misleading as she urges parliament recall

The Conservative leadership candidate Priti Patel has criticised Nigel Farage’s response to the far-right riots, saying it was wrong to compare the violence to Black Lives Matter protests.

The former home secretary has also written to the prime minister and home secretary, urging them to recall parliament, drawing parallels with the 2011 riots when MPs returned for a government statement on civil disorder and to condemn the violence.

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Keir Starmer decisive on mob violence but faces dilemma over Reform

Some within Labour worry that PM is failing to challenge Nigel Farage’s anti-migrant insinuations head-on

Keir Starmer sounded uncharacteristically angry as he appeared in front of a podium in Downing Street on Sunday to condemn the violent mobs causing damage and spreading fear.

Just a few weeks into government, the prime minister has been confronted with an appalling triple murder of three young girls, followed by days of rioting whipped up by online disinformation that a migrant was responsible.

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Almost half Tory members want merger with Reform UK, poll suggests, as leadership infighting escalates – UK politics live

Shadow home secretary James Cleverly has urged the party to avoid descending into ‘bitter infighting and finger pointing’

Former education recovery commissioner Sir Kevan Collins, who resigned after Boris Johnson rejected his £15bn Covid catch-up plans, is to advise the new government on driving up school standards and finding solutions to teacher shortages and high absence rates.

The Department for Education confirmed on Tuesday that Collins, a widely respected figure in the sector, has been appointed a non-executive board member at the DfE. As such his role will be to support and challenge the department in its efforts to raise standards in England’s schools.

I’m delighted to be returning to the Department for Education. There are real challenges facing our schools and I am looking forward to being part of a renewed drive to ensure that we tackle these with bold and fresh new ideas, to deliver high and rising standards in every corner of the country.

Sir Kevan has been an outstanding force for good in schools, especially his work advocating for our teachers and children during the pandemic and he will play a crucial role in advising the department.

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Keir Starmer says Palestinian state is an ‘undeniable right’ as part of Gaza peace process – UK politics live

Labour’s election manifesto committed party to recognising Palestinian state as part of a process that results in a two-state solution with Israel

Reynolds says he is not supposed to pre-empt what will be in the king’s speech, but he says it is no secret that the government is going to prioritise its employment rights reforms.

Jonathan Reynolds is being interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg now.

I do want things in exchange for money we’ll co-invest with the private sector around jobs and technology.

I think that’s a reasonable way to make sure public money is being well spent and I believe there are things, capacities, the steel industry needs in future that could be part of that conversation and that’s what I’ll be having in the next few days …

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‘Change begins immediately,’ says Keir Starmer after Labour’s landslide election win – live

Labour leader said he wanted to restore service and respect in politics and ‘end the era of noisy performance’

Clive Myrie is opening the BBC’s election night coverage. He is co-presenting with Laura Kuenssberg.

No 10 has also announced knightoods for four Tories in the dissolution honoursOliver Dowden, the deputy PM; Julian Smith, the former chief whip and Northern Ireland secretary; Ben Wallace, the former defence secretary; and Alister Jack, the outgoing Scottish secretary – and one damehood, for Thérèse Coffey, the former deputy PM.

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Labour wins big but the UK’s electoral system is creaking

Voters turned away from a deeply unpopular party but the true story of this election is more complex

The story of the 2024 general election is of voters turning away from a deeply unpopular governing party. What parties they turned to and how that interacted with the electoral system is a more complex story that may take some time to fully grasp.

Paula Surridge is a professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol

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