Monday briefing: Local election catastrophe for the Conservatives

In today’s newsletter: Rishi Sunak’s party were expecting a difficult contest – but the results were even more dire than predicted, as political correspondent Kiran Stacey explains

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A fraught situation is intensifying in Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced people have been sheltering. Israel’s armed forces have this morning called for those in the “eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah” to “temporarily” evacuate to an expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi. It comes after months of warnings that there would be a ground invasion of the beleaguered city as Israeli forces pursue Hamas militants. To keep a close eye on further developments, follow the Guardian’s live blog.

China | Xi Jinping has arrived in Paris for a rare visit against a backdrop of mounting trade disputes with the EU. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is set to urge his Chinese counterpart to reduce trade imbalances and to use his influence with Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Israel-Gaza war | Israel used a US weapon in a March airstrike that killed seven volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon, according to a Guardian analysis of shrapnel found at the site of the attack, which was described by Human Rights Watch as a violation of international law. In Jersualem, authorities shut down the local offices of Al Jazeera on Sunday, using newly approved laws. Critics called the move – which came amid faltering indirect ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas – a “dark day for the media”.

Immigration and asylum | Rwanda has admitted it cannot guarantee how many people it will take from the UK under Rishi Sunak’s deportation scheme. It did not give assurances that the estimated 52,000 asylum seekers eligible to be sent to Kigali would be accepted, instead saying it would be “thousands”.

Agriculture | The National Farmers’ Union warned that farmers’ confidence has hit its lowest level in at least 14 years, with extreme weather and the post-Brexit phasing-out of EU subsidies blamed for the drop. Most farms are expecting to reduce food production next year, with arable farming particularly badly hit.

Transport | Train drivers in the Aslef union are embarking on another round of industrial action, despite tentative attempts by the industry to restart talks. Drivers will strike for 24 hours at each of England’s national train operators from Tuesday until Thursday, while an overtime ban will apply nationwide from today until Saturday.

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Little sign that Sunak will tack towards centre after local elections rout

PM and allies seemingly intent on staying the course in face of conflicting calls on how to avoid wipeout when country goes to polls

As the terrible council and mayoral results rolled in for the Conservatives on Friday night, was there any part of Rishi Sunak that regretted sealing Boris Johnson’s fate as prime minister by resigning as his chancellor less than two years ago?

This could have been Johnson’s defeat, hurtling towards a Labour landslide at a general election, with Sunak and his allies plotting how to replace him thereafter.

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Andy Street tells Tories not to abandon moderate Conservatism as party mulls over dire election results – UK politics live

West Midlands mayor had been expected to hold on but was defeated by Labour by 1,508 votes to cap awful results for Tories

Good morning. The local elections are over, all but three results (one council, and two police and crime commissioner posts) are now in, and they have been just about as dire for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives as the national opinion poll figures implied they would be. On the plus side for Sunak, the rebels in his party who were hoping that terrible results would provide the springboard for a no confidence motion seem to have accepted that they don’t have the numbers, and the notional “coup” has been called off. But that won’t stop Tory MPs being pitched into a difficult debate about their future, and last night Andy Street made a defiant intervention, telling his party not to drift to the right.

Street had been expected to hold on as mayor of the West Midlands. He was defeated by Labour by just 1,508 votes, and in an interview with Sky News afterwards he said the message for his party from his campaign was that it should not give up on moderate conservatism. He said:

The thing everyone should take from Birmingham and the West Midlands tonight is this brand of moderative, inclusive, tolerant conservatism, that gets on and delivered, has come within an ace of beating the Labour party in what they considered to be their backyard - that’s the message from here tonight.

I would definitely not advise that drift.

The psychology here is really very straightforward isn’t it: this is the youngest, most diverse, one of the most urban places in Britain and we’ve done, many would say, extremely well over a consistent period.

The public are not rushing to vote for Sir Keir, though they feel sorely let down by us. They want a reason to vote Conservative, but we are failing to provide them with one. We need to be frank about this if we are to have any chance of fixing the problem.

On tax, migration, the small boats and law and order, we need to demonstrate strong leadership, not managerialism. Make a big and bold offer on tax cuts, rather than tweaking as we saw in the Budget. Place a cap on legal migration once and for all. Leave the ECHR to stop the boats. Tangible improvement to our NHS and tougher sentences for criminals. Start holding failing police chiefs to account so that antisocial behaviour, shoplifting and knife crime are actually sorted out. Take back control of our streets from the extremists. And instead of paying lip service in guidance on transgender ideology in schools, let’s actually change the law to ban the abuse of our children.

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London mayor election result due as Labour takes Liverpool and South Yorkshire – live

The results of mayoral elections in Greater Manchester, London and the West Midlands are among those expected on Saturday

Rishi Sunak is braced for the result of key mayoral elections in London and the West Midlands, after the Conservatives were trounced in the first day of local election results.

As Friday’s result declarations closed, the Conservatives had suffered a net loss of 371 seats, and lost control of 10 councils.

Cheshire

Dorset

Hertfordshire

Kent

Merseyside

Sussex

Thames Valley

Warwickshire

West Midlands

Wiltshire

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Labour’s Claire Ward elected first mayor of East Midlands as Sunak gets boost in Tees Valley after Tory losses – live

Party source describes region as ‘beating heart of general election battleground’ as prime minister says Labour threw ‘lot of mud’

The results of the London mayoral contest and London assembly elections are due on Saturday. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term and polls have put him comfortably ahead of Tory Susan Hall, despite jitters in Khan’s campaign team.

Following the closure of the polls tonight, Khan said his campaign and Labour activists “sent out a message of fairness, of equality and of hope”.

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Key points as local election results show major Tory losses

With almost all council elections declared, Conservatives are on course to lose up to 500 seats

At the start of a long weekend of election results, the first outcomes have been every bit as dire for the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak as analysts had predicted. Here is the state of play.

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Local elections 2024: full council results for England

Results from more than 100 English councils, as well as for several mayors, are announced. So far the Conservatives have lost control of several key councils but have won the Tees Valley mayoral contest. Find out what happened in your area

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Swinney expected to become Scotland’s first minister next week after Kate Forbes rules herself out – UK politics live

Former finance secretary who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest, has announced that she will not standing this time

Swinney has confirmed he is standing for SNP leader.

John Swinney is about to speak at his press conference in Edinburgh.

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Sadiq Khan calls Tories unpatriotic for ‘trying to do London down’

Exclusive: Mayor says Conservative government has put obstacles in his way each day of his eight years in office

Sadiq Khan has called the Conservatives’ treatment of London “unpatriotic” as he accused the government of putting obstacles in his way every day of his eight years running the capital.

The London mayor accused the Tories of “trying to do us down” at every opportunity for political reasons in long-running battles over police funding, cuts to London’s transport budget and in planning decisions.

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Kate Forbes denies claims SNP figures are discouraging her to run for leader – UK politics live

Runner-up in the SNP leadership contest last time around says she is still weighing decision on whether to stand

When Hilary Cass published her review of gender identity services for children, saying medical evidence did not generally justify giving puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to children, she said the “toxity of the debate” around trans children was exceptional, and she said she would like to see the issue discussed in a less polarised way.

But that has not stopped her report becoming a political football. The UK government responded to it with a ministerial statement treating it as a landmark victory in a culture war. In Scotland the Cass report arguably contributed to the downfall of Humza Yousaf, because it was the Rainbow Greens who launched the process to end the SNP/Scottish Greens pact, and they were partly motivated by the SNP government’s stance on puberty blockers.

The landmark Cass review is hugely significant for Wales. Regretfully, despite the weight of the findings, we are still yet to see a Labour minister come to the Senedd and give a statement in response.

In the Senedd tomorrow, I look forward to bringing forward a Welsh Conservative debate on the Cass review, and will call on the Labour government to adopt the recommendations of the Cass review.

The Cass review aims to ensure children and young people who are questioning their gender identity or experiencing gender dysphoria, and require support from the NHS, receive a high standard of care that meets their needs and is safe, holistic and effective.

We are committed to improving the gender identity development pathway and the support available for young people in Wales, in line with the commitments in our LGBTQ+ plan.

I’m the first chairman of the ‘22 who has had to operate it while we’ve been in government … And so my view is that that was a mistake to introduce that rule.

I think it’s fine to have the party members voting on the leader when you’re in opposition. But in a parliamentary system where essentially you could only remain prime minister if you enjoyed the confidence of your party in parliament, it seems to me crazy that we now have different mechanisms … The Conservative members of parliament can get rid of the leader by voting no confidence, but then the leader is supplied by the party members.

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Rwanda bill clears parliament after peers abandon final battle over safety amendment – as it happened

Bill could become law this week as end of parliamentary ping-pong in sight

Q: Do you think you will be able to implement this without leaving the European convention of human rights?

Sunak says he thinks he can implement this without leaving the ECHR.

If it ever comes to a choice between our national security, securing our borders, and membership of a foreign court, I’m, of course, always going to prioritise our national security.

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Tory candidate for London mayor has Trumpian attitude to climate, says Khan

London mayor expected to criticise Susan Hall in speech launching panels on school roofs

Sadiq Khan will accuse his Conservative rival in the race to be London’s next mayor of being “Trumpian” over the climate crisis, as he announces plans for solar panels on schools.

Khan is expected to acknowledge resistance to his expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) in a speech on Friday but insist that he still intends to “go further”.

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Former Uffizi director under fire for joining race to be Florence mayor

If elected, Eike Schmidt would form a coalition with Brothers of Italy in what could be a major blow for the left

The German-born former director of Florence’s world-famous Uffizi gallery has come under fire for his decision to run for mayor of the city with the far-right coalition that governs Italy, in what could be a major blow for the left.

If elected, Eike Schmidt – who has been credited for modernising the Uffizi – pledged to tackle problems such as security and over-tourism in the Tuscan capital, which for more than three decades has been a leftwing stronghold.

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Sadiq Khan aiming to create 150,000 ‘high-quality, well-paid jobs’ by 2028

Exclusive: London mayor to launch plan on Wednesday alongside Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor

Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, is to launch a plan to create 150,000 “high-quality, well-paid jobs” by 2028.

The plan will be unveiled by Khan on Wednesday alongside the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who will declare that a Labour administration will “reset” the relationship between national government and London.

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Cleaners, builders, Primark shoppers: ads for London mayor hopeful Susan Hall reveal Tories’ targets

Analysis shows content is aimed at working-class over-50s, and plays on fears of crime, stirs anger and pushes conspiracy theories

Are you a cleaner or builder who likes Primark, the pub or reality TV – but doesn’t care about the environment? If yes, the Conservative party wants your vote.

These are some of the interest categories used by the campaign team for the Tories’ candidate for London mayor, Susan Hall, to target audiences on social media.

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Sadiq Khan pledges new Erasmus-style overseas study scheme for London youngsters

City’s mayor outlines ‘internationalist’ vision in manifesto as he bids for third term in May

London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan is to offer young people studying in the capital a new version of the EU’s Erasmus scheme of student exchanges as part of his bid for a third term.

He will unveil plans under which students would receive grants and other help to study and undertake work experience, not just in the EU but other major world cities, with reciprocal arrangements for students from overseas to do the same in London.

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Tories delete Sadiq Khan attack ad showing New York instead of London

Footage of people panicking, designed to attack the London mayor’s record on crime, was filmed in a New York subway station

The Conservatives have deleted an online video that used scenes of a panicked crowd at a New York subway station to criticise Sadiq Khan’s record on crime in London.

The attack ad, posted on X in support of Susan Hall – Khan’s rival for the London mayoralty, showed people panicking and rushing through New York’s Penn station after false reports of gunfire in 2017.

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Tory mayor Andy Street decides to stay in post despite Sunak scrapping HS2 leg

West Midlands mayor says he remains committed to high-speed rail link to Manchester after suggestion he might quit over move

The Conservative mayor for the West Midlands has decided not to quit over HS2, after the prime minister confirmed he was scrapping the high-speed rail line from Birmingham to Manchester.

Andy Street had lobbied heavily to keep the northern leg of the project, and a spokesperson said on Wednesday morning he might quit if his campaign was unsuccessful.

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Cabinet Office will not investigate groping allegations against Daniel Korski

Daisy Goodwin expresses disappointment with government response to formal complaint against Tory ex-mayoral hopeful

The Cabinet Office will not investigate allegations that the former Conservative mayoral hopeful Daniel Korski groped a woman when he worked in Downing Street 10 years ago.

Daisy Goodwin, the novelist and TV producer who made the claim, said she was disappointed, and questioned why there was no dedicated body that investigated serious allegations against MPs and advisers.

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PMQs: Rishi Sunak faces questions from Keir Starmer over house building targets and mortgage support – UK politics live

Labour leader presses prime minister to admit his party will not meet promised targets over house building

PMQs is coming up soon.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

We remain seriously concerned about the potential implications of the illegal migration bill on human rights and the safety of individuals.

Careful consideration should continue to be given to the impact of the bill on different groups with protected characteristics – including children, pregnant women, disabled people, torture survivors, and victims of trafficking.

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