Labour gains in leave areas may cut swing needed for overall majority

Analysis reveals voters switching from the Tories in pro-Brexit seats could make a Starmer election victory easier to achieve

Voters are switching from the Tories to Labour in the most pro-leave parts of the country in such numbers that Keir Starmer may need a far lower overall swing from the Conservatives to win a parliamentary majority than was previously believed, election analysts have claimed.

In their analysis of this month’s local elections, professors Robert Ford of Manchester University and John Curtice of Strathclyde University both noted that the bigger the 2016 vote was for leave in an area, the higher the swing was to Labour.

Continue reading...

Monday briefing: Local election catastrophe for the Conservatives

In today’s newsletter: Rishi Sunak’s party were expecting a difficult contest – but the results were even more dire than predicted, as political correspondent Kiran Stacey explains

Sign up here for our daily newsletter, First Edition

Good morning.

A fraught situation is intensifying in Rafah, the city in southern Gaza where more than a million displaced people have been sheltering. Israel’s armed forces have this morning called for those in the “eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah” to “temporarily” evacuate to an expanded humanitarian area in Al-Mawasi. It comes after months of warnings that there would be a ground invasion of the beleaguered city as Israeli forces pursue Hamas militants. To keep a close eye on further developments, follow the Guardian’s live blog.

China | Xi Jinping has arrived in Paris for a rare visit against a backdrop of mounting trade disputes with the EU. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is set to urge his Chinese counterpart to reduce trade imbalances and to use his influence with Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Israel-Gaza war | Israel used a US weapon in a March airstrike that killed seven volunteer paramedics in southern Lebanon, according to a Guardian analysis of shrapnel found at the site of the attack, which was described by Human Rights Watch as a violation of international law. In Jersualem, authorities shut down the local offices of Al Jazeera on Sunday, using newly approved laws. Critics called the move – which came amid faltering indirect ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas – a “dark day for the media”.

Immigration and asylum | Rwanda has admitted it cannot guarantee how many people it will take from the UK under Rishi Sunak’s deportation scheme. It did not give assurances that the estimated 52,000 asylum seekers eligible to be sent to Kigali would be accepted, instead saying it would be “thousands”.

Agriculture | The National Farmers’ Union warned that farmers’ confidence has hit its lowest level in at least 14 years, with extreme weather and the post-Brexit phasing-out of EU subsidies blamed for the drop. Most farms are expecting to reduce food production next year, with arable farming particularly badly hit.

Transport | Train drivers in the Aslef union are embarking on another round of industrial action, despite tentative attempts by the industry to restart talks. Drivers will strike for 24 hours at each of England’s national train operators from Tuesday until Thursday, while an overtime ban will apply nationwide from today until Saturday.

Continue reading...

Labour ‘working to get support back’ after losing votes over Gaza stance

Analysis shows almost 18% drop in party’s vote in areas of England where more than a fifth are Muslim

A senior Labour official has insisted the party wants better lives for Palestinian people as it prepares to shift its campaigning to win back voters opposing its position on Gaza.

Pat McFadden, the party’s national election coordinator, said it would “work to get people’s support back” as analysis showed that despite huge gains in council seats, seizing the West Midlands mayoralty, and Sadiq Khan, the Muslim mayor of London, winning a third term, there was an almost 18% drop in the Labour vote in areas of England where more than a fifth of people identified as Muslim.

Continue reading...

Andy Street tells Tories not to abandon moderate Conservatism as party mulls over dire election results – UK politics live

West Midlands mayor had been expected to hold on but was defeated by Labour by 1,508 votes to cap awful results for Tories

Good morning. The local elections are over, all but three results (one council, and two police and crime commissioner posts) are now in, and they have been just about as dire for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives as the national opinion poll figures implied they would be. On the plus side for Sunak, the rebels in his party who were hoping that terrible results would provide the springboard for a no confidence motion seem to have accepted that they don’t have the numbers, and the notional “coup” has been called off. But that won’t stop Tory MPs being pitched into a difficult debate about their future, and last night Andy Street made a defiant intervention, telling his party not to drift to the right.

Street had been expected to hold on as mayor of the West Midlands. He was defeated by Labour by just 1,508 votes, and in an interview with Sky News afterwards he said the message for his party from his campaign was that it should not give up on moderate conservatism. He said:

The thing everyone should take from Birmingham and the West Midlands tonight is this brand of moderative, inclusive, tolerant conservatism, that gets on and delivered, has come within an ace of beating the Labour party in what they considered to be their backyard - that’s the message from here tonight.

I would definitely not advise that drift.

The psychology here is really very straightforward isn’t it: this is the youngest, most diverse, one of the most urban places in Britain and we’ve done, many would say, extremely well over a consistent period.

The public are not rushing to vote for Sir Keir, though they feel sorely let down by us. They want a reason to vote Conservative, but we are failing to provide them with one. We need to be frank about this if we are to have any chance of fixing the problem.

On tax, migration, the small boats and law and order, we need to demonstrate strong leadership, not managerialism. Make a big and bold offer on tax cuts, rather than tweaking as we saw in the Budget. Place a cap on legal migration once and for all. Leave the ECHR to stop the boats. Tangible improvement to our NHS and tougher sentences for criminals. Start holding failing police chiefs to account so that antisocial behaviour, shoplifting and knife crime are actually sorted out. Take back control of our streets from the extremists. And instead of paying lip service in guidance on transgender ideology in schools, let’s actually change the law to ban the abuse of our children.

Continue reading...

Conservatives crushed by ‘worst local election result’ in years

Spread of Tory losses leads former minister to say there’s ‘no such thing as a safe seat any more’

The Conservatives are facing one of their worst local election results in 40 years, with striking Labour gains across England and Wales in key battlegrounds they need to secure victory at the general election.

The spread of the Conservative losses led one former minister to claim there was “no such thing really as a safe Tory seat any more”, but the prime minister appeared committed to clinging on until polling day, with rebels in his own party lacking the support to oust him.

Continue reading...

Big Tory losses but no Labour landslide. What might happen at Westminster? – a visual analysis

Tory council representation has imploded, but Labour’s gains have not been seismic. These charts show what this may signal for a general election

Conservative representation has collapsed to its lowest level since 1998 in the areas that voted in Thursday’s local elections, according to a Guardian analysis.

The Tories now control 19% of seats in the 98 council areas that had announced results by 20:40 on 3 May – their lowest level since Labour’s Tony Blair swept to power in the late 1990s.

Continue reading...

‘Promising signs’: Greens dominate in Bristol election

As party narrowly misses out on overall majority, co-leader says it has won spread of urban and rural seats

The Greens are celebrating a spectacular win in Bristol, where it became by far the largest party, as it headed for a record number of councillors in local elections across England.

Party officials said they believed they were on track to finish with more than 800 members on more than 170 councils.

Continue reading...

Labour’s Claire Ward elected first mayor of East Midlands as Sunak gets boost in Tees Valley after Tory losses – live

Party source describes region as ‘beating heart of general election battleground’ as prime minister says Labour threw ‘lot of mud’

The results of the London mayoral contest and London assembly elections are due on Saturday. Labour’s Sadiq Khan is seeking a third term and polls have put him comfortably ahead of Tory Susan Hall, despite jitters in Khan’s campaign team.

Following the closure of the polls tonight, Khan said his campaign and Labour activists “sent out a message of fairness, of equality and of hope”.

Continue reading...

Key points as local election results show major Tory losses

With almost all council elections declared, Conservatives are on course to lose up to 500 seats

At the start of a long weekend of election results, the first outcomes have been every bit as dire for the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak as analysts had predicted. Here is the state of play.

Continue reading...

Local elections 2024: full council results for England

Results from more than 100 English councils, as well as for several mayors, are announced. So far the Conservatives have lost control of several key councils but have won the Tees Valley mayoral contest. Find out what happened in your area

Continue reading...

Swinney expected to become Scotland’s first minister next week after Kate Forbes rules herself out – UK politics live

Former finance secretary who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest, has announced that she will not standing this time

Swinney has confirmed he is standing for SNP leader.

John Swinney is about to speak at his press conference in Edinburgh.

Continue reading...

Minister ‘sorry’ as veterans find ID card not valid for English elections

Johnny Mercer says he will ‘do all I can’ to change rules after veteran turned away from polling station

The veterans minister has apologised to former military personnel who have been prevented from using their veterans ID in order to vote in the local elections in England on Thursday.

Downing Street said it would “look into” changing the controversial new rules, which require photo ID in order to vote, to allow veterans’ ID cards on to the list of valid identification.

Continue reading...

Kate Forbes denies claims SNP figures are discouraging her to run for leader – UK politics live

Runner-up in the SNP leadership contest last time around says she is still weighing decision on whether to stand

When Hilary Cass published her review of gender identity services for children, saying medical evidence did not generally justify giving puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones to children, she said the “toxity of the debate” around trans children was exceptional, and she said she would like to see the issue discussed in a less polarised way.

But that has not stopped her report becoming a political football. The UK government responded to it with a ministerial statement treating it as a landmark victory in a culture war. In Scotland the Cass report arguably contributed to the downfall of Humza Yousaf, because it was the Rainbow Greens who launched the process to end the SNP/Scottish Greens pact, and they were partly motivated by the SNP government’s stance on puberty blockers.

The landmark Cass review is hugely significant for Wales. Regretfully, despite the weight of the findings, we are still yet to see a Labour minister come to the Senedd and give a statement in response.

In the Senedd tomorrow, I look forward to bringing forward a Welsh Conservative debate on the Cass review, and will call on the Labour government to adopt the recommendations of the Cass review.

The Cass review aims to ensure children and young people who are questioning their gender identity or experiencing gender dysphoria, and require support from the NHS, receive a high standard of care that meets their needs and is safe, holistic and effective.

We are committed to improving the gender identity development pathway and the support available for young people in Wales, in line with the commitments in our LGBTQ+ plan.

I’m the first chairman of the ‘22 who has had to operate it while we’ve been in government … And so my view is that that was a mistake to introduce that rule.

I think it’s fine to have the party members voting on the leader when you’re in opposition. But in a parliamentary system where essentially you could only remain prime minister if you enjoyed the confidence of your party in parliament, it seems to me crazy that we now have different mechanisms … The Conservative members of parliament can get rid of the leader by voting no confidence, but then the leader is supplied by the party members.

Continue reading...