250,000 more people will face relative poverty after Rachel Reeves’ benefits cuts, DWP says – spring statement live

Department for Work and Pensions says thousands, including children, will be hit by chancellor’s announcement, as OBR forecasts UK growth to halve in 2025

Rachel Reeves will not be raising taxes in the spring statement today, even though there are many people on the left who would prefer taxes to rise as an alternative to public spending being cut. Reeves came into office promising only one budget-type event a year, and that is one reason why she is not hiking taxes today. But mainly it’s because she thinks Britons are relatively highly taxed already, because Labour was elected on a manifesto ruling out most of the obvious possible tax rises and because she’s not convinced a sweeping wealth tax would work.

But that has not stopped campaigners calling for a wealth tax, and yesterday about 300 people attended a ‘Tax the Super-Rich’ rally outside the Treasury. It was organised by charities and social justice campaign groups, but one of the speakers was Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green party, which is in favour of a wealth tax.

Across the country, inequality is soaring and people are being left behind, struggling to make ends meet and dealing with broken public services, all while the very richest get richer. Choosing to make cut after cut to the poorest and most marginalised, while leaving the vast resource of the extreme wealth of the super rich untouched, is immoral, harmful, and will not deliver for our communities or the economy.

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Bank of England in no hurry on interest rates – but cuts will come

Despite the decision to hold at 4.5%, businesses and households can take a confident view of the UK’s prospects

Bank of England policymakers might be on a “go-slow” as they look forward to interest rate cuts this year, but the direction of travel is almost certain.

After a meeting on Thursday when interest rates were kept on hold at 4.5%, City investors bet there would be more reductions in the cost of borrowing this year, most likely two cuts reducing the rate to 4%.

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Shrinking economy offers unhelpful backdrop for Rachel Reeves’s growth push

GDP goes in wrong direction as chancellor puts final touches to fiscal plans

For a government that has made growth its overriding mission, the 0.1% decline in GDP in January signalled by the Office for National Statistics will be depressing news.

As Rachel Reeves prepares to announce her spring statement on 26 March, the economy appears to be going in the wrong direction – underlining the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility is likely to have presented her with notably weaker forecasts than in October.

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UK economy shrinks unexpectedly in blow to Rachel Reeves

ONS data showing 0.1% fall in GDP in January comes less than two weeks before chancellor’s spring statement

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January, dealing a blow to Rachel Reeves before the spring statement later this month.

In a surprise to City economists, who expected 0.1% growth in January, the Office for National Statistics data showed the services sector failed to offset a decline in the industrial sector and maintain growth from the previous month.

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UK drops down list of affluent nations after decade of stagnation, NIESR finds

Districts in Birmingham now ranked below poorest areas of France, Malta and Slovenia as institute urges rethink on planned welfare cuts

The UK has tumbled down the league of affluent nations after almost a decade of welfare cuts and stagnant incomes, according to a report that found the poorest districts in Britain now rank below the lowest-income areas of Malta and Slovenia.

In a warning for ministers to protect welfare spending before Rachel Reeves’s spring statement later this month, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the UK’s reputation for high living standards was under threat.

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UK awarded its lowest ranking for workplace gender equality in a decade

‘Sluggish’ pace in tackling gender pay gap and worsening employment levels push UK back to 18th in PwC index of OECD countries

Women’s worsening unemployment and participation in the workforce has pulled the UK behind Canada to its lowest ranking for workplace equality among large economies in a decade.

The “sluggish” pace of change on women’s earnings relative to men’s – which means closing the gender pay gap could take more than 30 years at the current pace – has knocked the UK back one place to 18th in the Women in Work Index produced by advisory firm PwC.

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UK hiring on the rise as confidence lifts, research suggests

Companies increase hiring for first time since June, and households more optimistic about their finances

Companies have ramped up hiring in recent weeks while consumer confidence has started to rise, research suggests, in a boost for Rachel Reeves as the government looks for signs of economic growth.

The chancellor has received a fillip after the market research company GfK’s consumer index improved from -22 in January to -20 in February as households said they were more optimistic about their personal finances and the economic outlook.

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UK marketplace sellers face ‘second Brexit’ hit from Trump’s US import rules

End of ‘de minimis’ policy for Chinese goods also expected to hit bigger fashion retailers such as Asos and Boohoo

Many UK-based independent sellers on marketplaces such as eBay and Amazon could suffer a significant hit to US sales from planned changes to import rules under Donald Trump, with experts comparing the impact to a second Brexit.

The new rules, which mean all parcels originating or made in China and being sold into the US must pay import duty – of as much as 15% on fashion items – and an additional 10% tariff, are also expected to impact bigger online clothing retailers such as Asos and Boohoo.

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Reeves warned UK inflation will push public sector unions to seek higher pay rises

Plan for ‘reasonable’ 2.8% rises may prove insufficient, forcing chancellor to find billions in extra funding

Rachel Reeves has been warned public sector unions will demand higher pay increases to compensate for accelerating inflation, heaping pressure on the chancellor to find billions of pounds in extra funding.

The government made recommendations in December for a 2.8% pay rise for teachers, NHS staff and other public sector workers for the financial year beginning in April, saying it was a “reasonable amount” given forecasts for the economy.

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UK firms mull biggest layoffs in a decade as business confidence slumps

Impending tax rises from autumn budget fuel collapse in sentiment and rising redundancy intentions, surveys show

UK employers are preparing for the biggest redundancy round in a decade amid collapsing business confidence as firms brace for tax increases from April that Rachel Reeves announced in her autumn budget.

In a fresh blow for the chancellor, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD), which represents human resources professionals, said a survey of 2,000 employers showed redundancy intentions at their highest level in 10 years, barring the Covid pandemic.

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Rachel Reeves has three options to dodge an economic crisis and all are unthinkable

As her £9.9bn of headroom evaporates, chancellor will have to raise taxes, cut spending or break ‘iron-clad’ fiscal rules

When Rachel Reeves stood up in the House of Commons on budget day on 30 October as this country’s first woman chancellor, she was brimming with pride: “To girls and young women everywhere, I say: Let there be no ceiling on your ambition, your hopes and your dreams.”

Four months on, however, there are few women or men, young or old, at Westminster, who would envy Reeves’s lot in charge of the country’s finances. The bind she finds herself in is more the stuff of a chancellor’s nightmares than dreams.

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UK economy grows by 0.1% in unexpected boost for Rachel Reeves

ONS data showing British national output rose in final quarter of 2024 confounds forecasts of 0.1% decline

Business live – latest updates

Britain’s economy unexpectedly picked up in the final three months of 2024, official figures have shown, easing pressure on the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, after flatlining during the summer.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show gross domestic product rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 – after zero growth in the previous three months – to beat the forecasts of City economists and the Bank of England for a decline of 0.1%.

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Caught in the middle: UK firms brace for fallout from Trump’s global trade war

While UK may not be in direct line of fire, knock-on effects on global trade has British businesses worried

“We’re vulnerable at the moment,” says Fiona Conor, the managing director of Trust Electric Heating, a Leeds-based radiator manufacturer, who has been considering expanding into the US market.

After a predictably unpredictable start to Donald Trump’s second term as US president, Conor is worried her options could be limited, as businesses across the UK brace for a global trade war.

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‘Stagflation’ fears as Bank of England cuts growth forecast and warns of price rises

UK economy expected to grow by just 0.75% this year, in fresh blow to Rachel Reeves’s attempts to raise confidence

Rachel Reeves’s plans for growth suffered a double blow after the Bank of England halved its forecast for the year and warned households would face mounting pressure from rising prices.

In a downbeat assessment as it cut interest rates for a third time in six months, Threadneedle Street warned people would face a fresh squeeze on living standards from rising inflation even as the economy stalled.

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Unambiguously bleak Bank of England forecasts pave way for spending cuts

Weak jobs market and above-target inflation will dent Reeves’s growth plans and may wipe out fiscal headroom

With the public finances tight and Rachel Reeves having pledged to balance the books, interest rate cuts are one of the few levers that could boost the UK’s economic growth in the short term, and the chancellor will be glad of the Bank of England’s quarter-point reduction on Thursday – and the clear signal that it is now in cutting mode.

Seven of the monetary policy committee’s (MPC) nine members backed the quarter-point drop, taking the Bank’s policy rate to 4.5%, while two wanted to be more “activist”, proposing a half-point cut. The Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said the MPC would be “taking a gradual and careful approach to reducing rates further”.

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Bank of England cuts interest rates to 4.5% and halves UK growth forecast

Latest quarter-point reduction comes with warning households face inflation of 3.7% by autumn

The Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4.5%, as it halved its UK growth forecasts for the year and warned households would face renewed pressure from rising prices.

With the government under fire over the sluggish economy, the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority of seven to two to reduce its key base rate, down from 4.75%, to provide some financial relief to borrowers.

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Rachel Reeves says cabinet ‘united’ in backing Heathrow third runway plan – UK politics live

Chancellor says she has support of cabinet as climate minister Ed Miliband reported to be sceptical over Heathrow plans

Richard Madeley goes next.

Q: The Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary says you are wrong, and the third runway won’t be built until you are 70. You are 45 now. Why is he wrong?

We’re signing off decisions on wind farms, on solar farms, a commitment to a new stadium at Old Trafford. We are upgrading the Transpennine route to make journey times easier between York and Manchester via Leeds and Huddersfield. Those things are happening right now.

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Reeves’s growth plans ‘exactly what economy needs’ say UK business groups – as it happened

This live blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

Reeves says the supply side of the economy has been held back.

Politicians have lacked the courage to confront the factors holding back growth.

They have accepted the status quo. They have been the barrier, not the enablers, of change.

Without economic growth, we cannot improve the living standards of ordinary working people, because growth isn’t simply about lines on a graph. It’s about the pounds in people’s pockets, the vibrancy of our high streets and the thriving businesses that create wealth, jobs and new opportunities for us, for our children and grandchildren.

We will have succeeded in our mission when working people are better off.

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Up to 10,000 people will have to be rehoused if Heathrow third runway goes ahead, John McDonnell says – UK politics live

MP for Hayes and Harlington, whose constituency includes Heathrow, says homes will either be unliveable or need to be demolished

Q: Are doctors able to recognise depression? And can they decide if that affects someone’s capacity to make a decision about their health?

Whitty says doctors can identify depression. But he says it is harder for them to assess if that is affecting capacity.

That’s where help from colleagues from psychiatry, mental health more widely, is going to be useful. But that should be good medical practice, in my view, under all circumstances.

Certainly what I wouldn’t want is to be in a situation where the existence of the fact that someone who has a terminal diagnosis has some degree of low mood in itself just rules them out from any kind of medical intervention, this or any other. That shouldn’t be the case.

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Government under pressure on economy as British households anticipate worsening finances

CBI says businesses plan to cut jobs and raise prices while debt charity says millions are ‘facing worries’

The government is under growing pressure to get momentum back into the economy amid warnings that businesses plan to cut jobs and raise prices, while millions of families believe their finances will worsen this year.

Before a major speech this week by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, designed to restate Labour’s commitment to improving the economy, the CBI said private sector firms were urgently assessing their budgets to offset measures announced in last October’s budget.

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