Category Archives: Budget deficit

Shares in UK gambling firms fall £3bn amid talk of higher taxes in budget

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Thinktank reports saying sector should be hit with extra £900m to £3bn in levies prompts market selloff

Shares in British gambling companies have dropped sharply, reducing the stock market value of large operators by more than £3bn, after the Guardian reported that Treasury officials could tap the sector for between £900m and £3bn in extra taxes.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has come under pressure from two influential thinktanks to raise taxes on the industry, as she pulls every available lever to plug a £22bn “black hole” in the nation’s finances.

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Will Rachel Reeves’s rules on debt and spending survive the budget?

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The chancellor desperately needs more money to finance growth and public spending so expect a bit of tweaking to supposedly strict constraints

Change*. If Labour’s one-word campaign slogan had an asterisk, it would have directed voters to Rachel Reeves’s budget.

Later this month the chancellor will attempt to walk the line between repairing Britain’s battered public realm, while sticking to a manifesto promise to balance the books without raising taxes on working people.

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Labour needs £25bn a year in tax rises to rebuild public services, warns IFS

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Thinktank says tax increases in budget will be necessary even if Rachel Reeves changes fiscal rules

Keir Starmer’s promise to end austerity and rebuild public services will require tax increases of £25bn a year in the coming budget even if debt rules are changed to provide scope for extra investment spending, a leading thinktank has said.

In its preview of the first Labour budget in 14 years, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Rachel Reeves would need to raise taxes to fresh record levels to meet the government’s policy goals. The chancellor was also warned of the risk of a Liz Truss-style meltdown if the City responded badly to substantially higher borrowing.

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NHS spending rise lags behind Tory funding pledges, IFS finds

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Thinktank says extra funding eaten up by higher inflation despite greater demand with service in poor state of repair

Spending on the NHS in England has risen less quickly than the Conservatives promised at the last election despite the extra demand created by the pandemic and record waiting lists, a leading thinktank has said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said increases in funding from the government had been eaten up by higher than expected inflation and, as a result, NHS day-to-day spending had grown by 2.7% a year during the current parliament – below the 3.3% pledged by Boris Johnson in 2019.

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Thames Water collapse could trigger Truss-style borrowing crisis, Whitehall officials fear

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Exclusive: Concerns over effect on UK’s finances lead officials to believe utility should be renationalised before general election

Senior Whitehall officials fear Thames Water’s financial collapse could trigger a rise in government borrowing costs not seen since the chaos of the Liz Truss mini-budget, the Guardian can reveal.

Such is their concern about the impact on wider borrowing costs for the UK, even beyond utilities and infrastructure, that they believe Thames should be renationalised before the general election.

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Jeremy Hunt’s scope for tax cuts hit by higher-than-expected borrowing

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Government borrowed £120.7bn in the last financial year, with just under £12bn in March

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for a substantial pre-election tax giveaway has been hit after the latest set of official figures showed the UK’s public finances in worse shape than thought at last month’s budget.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the government borrowed £120.7bn in the 2023-24 financial year – £6.6bn more than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected.

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UK government borrowing higher than expected in February

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Borrowing of £8.4bn last month could threaten OBR forecast for £114.1bn deficit for 2023-24 as a whole

Jeremy Hunt has been handed disappointing news from the public finances after government borrowing was higher than expected in February, leaving the national debt at the highest levels since the 1960s.

The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing was £8.4bn in February, £3.4bn less than in the same month a year ago. However, it was higher than any economist expected in a Reuters poll that predicted a deficit of £6bn.

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Budget 2024: Jeremy Hunt announces 2p cut in national insurance

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Chancellor also scraps ‘non-dom’ tax breaks and slashes capital gains on property in pre-election gambit

Jeremy Hunt has announced a 2p national insurance cut in his budget as a pre-election gambit to revive flatlining opinion poll ratings and reboot Britain’s economy from recession.

In what could be the last major economic intervention before voters go to the polls, the chancellor said the government was making progress on its economic priorities and could now help hard-pressed families by permanently lowering certain taxes.

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Jeremy Hunt fuels election speculation as 6 March spring budget announced

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Chancellor has asked the OBR to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances to be presented to parliament

Jeremy Hunt has announced that a spring budget expected to feature a host of tax cuts will be held on 6 March, fuelling speculation over an early general election.

While government sources insisted nothing should be read into the date, it is the earliest the set-piece fiscal event has been held in 13 years of Conservative government – apart from 2021 when the Treasury was trying to kickstart the economy after Covid.

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How a spring UK budget could fire the starting gun for an early election

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UK economic prospects are bleak but an agenda-setting fiscal event such as sweeping tax cuts in March offers another roll of the dice

To grasp the nettle, or wait in the hope that things somehow miraculously improve. This is the choice Rishi Sunak will be weighing for the next general election, as the Conservatives limp towards the finishing line of another challenging year.

After Jeremy Hunt announced the government would hold an earlier than anticipated budget, with a date set for 6 March, the possibility of a poll in May, in the afterglow of some electioneering tax cuts, is clearly being given considerable thought.

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Autumn statement live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance as OBR downgrades UK growth forecast

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Chancellor cuts employee national insurance to 10% while abolishing class 2 national insurance

Keir Starmer has said that a pause in hostilities between Israel and Hamas must be used to tackle the “urgent and unacceptable humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza.

Welcoming the deal, which is expected to involve the release of 50 hostages being held by Hamas and a number of women and teenagers from Israeli jails, the Labour leader said his party had been calling for “a substantial humanitarian pause”. He said:

There must be immediate access to aid, food, water, fuel and medicine to ensure hospitals function and lives are saved. Aid and fuel need to not just get in but be distributed widely and safely.

We must also use the space this pause creates to take more steps on a path towards a full cessation of hostilities rather than an escalation of violence.

The real function of the projected spending squeeze is as a trap for Labour. If the opposition rejects the Tory trajectory, it will be accused of planning a profligate spree with public money. And if it pledges adherence to impossible targets, it will enter government with its hands bound too tight to deliver prompt satisfaction to the people who voted for it.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have so far operated a sensible policy of not walking into traps of this kind. That approach restored swing voters’ trust in Labour as stewards of the economy. But it tests the patience of an activist base that sees reversal of austerity as a moral imperative and can smell the incipient disappointment in promises of fiscal discipline.

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OBR halves UK growth forecast and warns inflation will exceed 2% target until 2025

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Despite £27bn windfall for the autumn statement, government forecaster warns of generally more difficult outlook until 2028

The government’s official forecaster has slashed its predictions for economic growth over the next two years, and warned that inflation could take until 2025 to come back to the official 2% target.

In an updated financial health check to accompany the autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said a more resilient economy this year had handed the chancellor a £27bn budget windfall, but it warned of a more difficult outlook up to 2028 than previously forecast at the time of the budget in March.

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Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt looks to cut UK taxes and ‘turbo-charge growth’

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Amid less gloomy OBR forecasts the chancellor is expected to take first steps towards cutting personal taxes

Jeremy Hunt will announce 110 measures to boost Britain’s stagnant economy and bow to demands from anxious Tory MPs for tax cuts when he delivers his second autumn statement on Wednesday.

In one of the last set-piece economic events before the general election, the chancellor will pledge to “turbo charge” growth while taking the first steps to cut personal taxes after recent sharp increases.

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UK borrows less than expected this year as Hunt lines up giveaways

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Chancellor says bringing down inflation remains one of his main aims as he prepares autumn statement

The UK government borrowed less than expected in the first seven months of the financial year as Jeremy Hunt puts the last-minute touches to a series of pre-election giveaways in his autumn statement on Wednesday.

Public sector borrowing between April and October was just above £98bn, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and while this was £22bn higher than in the same period last year, it was almost £17bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in March.

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Labour motion to ban Truss-style budget meltdowns puts pressure on Tory MPs

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Party loyalty would force Conservatives to vote against plan for fiscal responsibility

Read more: ‘I challenge Rishi Sunak: vote with Labour to stop a Truss-style disaster happening again,’ writes Rachel Reeves

Labour will force a Commons vote this week aimed at creating new legal safeguards against fiscal disasters such as Liz Truss’s catastrophic mini-budget, which sent the financial markets into meltdown and drove up mortgage rates.

The party’s plan for a “fiscal lock” to protect personal, family and the national finances from reckless politicians will be contained in an amendment to the king’s speech that will be voted on by MPs on Tuesday. The manoeuvre will present Conservative backbenchers with a dilemma over whether to back a Labour amendment, or vote against what is a plan designed to embed fiscal responsibility into the budgetary process, and protect it from wild or accidental political misjudgments.

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One in five workers will be higher-rate taxpayers by 2027 – IFS

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Jeremy Hunt’s freeze on allowances and thresholds will put a quarter of teachers and one-eighth of nurses in 40% income tax bracket

One in four teachers and one in eight nurses will be higher-rate taxpayers by 2027 as a result of the government’s record freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, according to a leading thinktank.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said better-paid public sector workers will be among the almost 8 million people – one in five of all taxpayers – who will pay income tax at 40% or above as result of the Treasury’s attempt to reduce the UK’s budget deficit.

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Will Jeremy Hunt’s budget cut UK debt or help the public sector?

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Surprise surplus lands the chancellor with a dilemma – but he is unlikely to listen to calls to change course

Inflation is the chancellor’s friend if he only considers his income.

The official figures for the public finances show total tax revenues rose by 13.2% in January from the same month a year ago.

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Cost of living crisis: Stop the Squeeze calls for wealthiest to ‘pay proper share’ of tax

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Coalition of 40-plus charities and groups launches amid fears of spending cuts to plug public finances

Pressure is building on the leaders of Britain’s two biggest political parties to support higher taxes on wealth amid growing fears over the impact that a renewed austerity drive would have amid the cost of living crisis.

In an intervention which comes as the new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, considers options for filling a £35bn black hole in the public finances, a new coalition of 40 charities and campaign groups – including Oxfam, Save the Children and Christians Against Poverty – said Britain’s tax system was broken and those who paid the most should “pay their proper share”.

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Bank of England left in the dark ahead of new interest rate decision

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With fiscal statement deferred and mixed government messaging on tax and spending the BoE has little to go on

The Bank of England will next week consider how much to raise interest rates without having received any guidance from the government about its tax and spending policies, after Jeremy Hunt pushed back the date for this year’s “autumn statement”.

Its policymakers meet on 3 November to decide the increase in the cost of borrowing required to tackle a rate of inflation that climbed above 10% in September.

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Unfunded tax cuts mean UK ‘will need £60bn spending cuts’

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IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public services

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

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