Bank of England in no hurry on interest rates – but cuts will come

Despite the decision to hold at 4.5%, businesses and households can take a confident view of the UK’s prospects

Bank of England policymakers might be on a “go-slow” as they look forward to interest rate cuts this year, but the direction of travel is almost certain.

After a meeting on Thursday when interest rates were kept on hold at 4.5%, City investors bet there would be more reductions in the cost of borrowing this year, most likely two cuts reducing the rate to 4%.

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UK economy shrinks unexpectedly in blow to Rachel Reeves

ONS data showing 0.1% fall in GDP in January comes less than two weeks before chancellor’s spring statement

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January, dealing a blow to Rachel Reeves before the spring statement later this month.

In a surprise to City economists, who expected 0.1% growth in January, the Office for National Statistics data showed the services sector failed to offset a decline in the industrial sector and maintain growth from the previous month.

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Australia news live: NSW health system ‘catastrophically let down’ toddler’s family, minister admits

Two-year-old waited in emergency department for three hours before suffering a cardiac arrest and dying. Follow today’s news headlines live

Victoria to offer contactless public transport tickets from next year

Victorians will be able to use their phones, bank cards or smartwatches to pay for public transport travel from “early next year in a staged approach”, according to reports.

Following a successful start of a ticketless bus trial in Wangaratta, the Allan Labor Government will begin switching on tap-and-go technology across Victoria’s public transport network from early next year in a staged approach – meaning some passengers will soon be able to use their bank cards, phones and smart watches to travel on full fare tickets.

The new ticketing system will continue to be underpinned by extensive technical testing and will be carefully rolled out starting with rail from the beginning early next year – allowing full fare passengers more ways to pay for their travel.

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UK inflation jumps to 3%, reducing chance of early interest rate cut

Annual CPI inflation rate hit 10-month high in January in blow to ministers amid rise in food bills and fuel costs

UK inflation accelerated faster than expected at the start of this year, eating into workers’ wages and reducing the chance of an interest rate cut next month.

The consumer prices index (CPI) measure rose to 3% in January, the Office for National Statistics reported, up from 2.5% in December.

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As an election looms, will Australians remember Labor for one rate cut or the 12 hikes before that?

The Albanese government had been sweating on the RBA decision, which clears the way for an election as soon as early April

Jim Chalmers tried to say he wasn’t taking credit for the big banks dropping their interest rates, but the sense of satisfaction – or perhaps relief – among other Labor MPs was palpable in the moments after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its cut of 25 basis points.

Labor MPs Justine Elliot and Kristy McBain, both under pressure in tough races, tweeted “breaking” updates within two minutes of the announcement. Within a few more minutes, the likes of Jerome Laxale, Josh Wilson, Pat Conroy, Shayne Neumann, Mark Butler, Helen Polley, Tony Sheldon and the retiring Graham Perrett had also taken to their social media accounts to broadcast the news.

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RBA expected to give mortgage holders ‘breathing capacity’ on interest rates

But business shouldn’t hold its breath for any immediate effect interest rate cuts might have on spending habits – which can take up to nine months

The Reserve Bank is expected to provide “breathing capacity” to households with mortgages by cutting the official cash rate for the first time since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point decrease on Tuesday, according to the ASX’s rate indicator, although several economists have warned they expect the decision to be closer than the odds suggest.

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Australia news live: embattled casino operator Star offered $650m lifeline; name of next cyclone changed from Anthony to avoid using PM’s name

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Hume rules out working with teals if Coalition wins 70-72 seats

Jane Hume was asked whether the Coalition was in a position to form any alliances with the crossbench, amid new polling from YouGov showing neither party looks to be coming out with a clear majority.

That would cause chaos, and would cause chaos politically and economically as well.

On average, the teals have voted with the Greens around 78% of the time, with Labor around 75% of the time, and with the Coalition around 18% of the time.

I think it’s really important to look at what people do rather than what people say. We’re planning on going to this election to win the election, because Australians deserve better than what they’ve had for the last three years.

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Bank of England’s Mann backed rate cut as she sees inflation ‘hump’ easing

Downturn in jobs market will mean workers will be unlikely to be able to bid up their wages, says policymaker

The Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann has said she backed a half-point cut in UK interest rates last week because she believes the downturn in the jobs market will make the inflation “hump” this year short-lived.

Mann surprised financial markets last week by switching from voting against the Bank’s last cut, in November, to supporting a half-point reduction.

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‘Stagflation’ fears as Bank of England cuts growth forecast and warns of price rises

UK economy expected to grow by just 0.75% this year, in fresh blow to Rachel Reeves’s attempts to raise confidence

Rachel Reeves’s plans for growth suffered a double blow after the Bank of England halved its forecast for the year and warned households would face mounting pressure from rising prices.

In a downbeat assessment as it cut interest rates for a third time in six months, Threadneedle Street warned people would face a fresh squeeze on living standards from rising inflation even as the economy stalled.

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Unambiguously bleak Bank of England forecasts pave way for spending cuts

Weak jobs market and above-target inflation will dent Reeves’s growth plans and may wipe out fiscal headroom

With the public finances tight and Rachel Reeves having pledged to balance the books, interest rate cuts are one of the few levers that could boost the UK’s economic growth in the short term, and the chancellor will be glad of the Bank of England’s quarter-point reduction on Thursday – and the clear signal that it is now in cutting mode.

Seven of the monetary policy committee’s (MPC) nine members backed the quarter-point drop, taking the Bank’s policy rate to 4.5%, while two wanted to be more “activist”, proposing a half-point cut. The Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, said the MPC would be “taking a gradual and careful approach to reducing rates further”.

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Bank of England cuts interest rates to 4.5% and halves UK growth forecast

Latest quarter-point reduction comes with warning households face inflation of 3.7% by autumn

The Bank of England has cut interest rates to 4.5%, as it halved its UK growth forecasts for the year and warned households would face renewed pressure from rising prices.

With the government under fire over the sluggish economy, the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority of seven to two to reduce its key base rate, down from 4.75%, to provide some financial relief to borrowers.

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Inflation figures to ‘make or break’ the case for an Australian pre-election February rate cut

Release of December quarterly CPI may be the most politically consequential set of numbers in recent times

Inflation figures due out on Wednesday could “make or break” the case for a pre-election rate cut next month, according to economists, in one of the most politically consequential set of numbers of recent times.

The market is pricing in an 84% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets mid-next month, although those odds will rise or fall based on the December quarterly consumer price index.

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FTSE 100 hits record as interest rate hopes push down UK borrowing costs

Nearly every share on index rose after fall in value of pound helped multinationals listed in London

The UK’s blue-chip stock index has hit a record high, as hopes of interest rate cuts this year drove down government borrowing costs.

Almost every share on the FTSE 100 rose on Friday, the fall in the value of the pound bolstering multinationals listed in London and propelling the index above 8,500 points for the first time.

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Australia’s housing market ‘buckling’ under widening gap between income and home values, report finds

Housing prices fell by 0.1% in December but dip likely to be ‘shallow and short-lived’, according to CoreLogic

Australia’s housing downturn is being driven by a widening gap between income, borrowing capacity and home values, but the dip is likely to be “shallow and short-lived”, a new report has found.

In December, Australia’s property market eased with home values falling 0.1% after a flat result in November and a gradual slowdown over last year, according to CoreLogic.

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UK interest rates to fall more slowly than expected after budget, claims report

Government’s spending and borrowing plans mean rates will stay higher for longer, according to OECD

UK interest rates will fall by less than expected over the next two years after Rachel Reeves revealed significant spending and borrowing plans in the budget, according to an influential report.

In its annual economic survey, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said UK inflation would also surpass previous forecasts next year, and upgraded growth projections for the economy, because of boost from October’s budget.

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UK’s inflation jump dashes hope of interest rate cut in December | Heather Stewart

Rate cut unlikely until 2025 as energy prices blamed for stronger-than-expected inflation of 2.3%

Any lingering hope that the Bank of England might deliver a pre-Christmas interest rate cut next month appears to have evaporated, after official data showed inflation jumping to 2.3% in October.

The CPI measure had been expected to tick up, after dipping to 1.7% in September, but 2.3% was stronger than expected.

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Australia politics live: Dutton calls Labor’s international student caps bill ‘a dog’s breakfast’; RBA fuels expectations for February interest rates cut

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First investment announced as part of National Reconstruction Fund

The science and industry minister, Ed Husic, was on ABC News Breakfast to discuss the government’s first investment via the National Reconstruction Fund – $40m to a Toowoomba mineral processing factory.

The difference in terms of what the [NRF] does is it provides loans, equity, and guarantees to firms that are [working across] seven priority areas to expand and grow their operations.

Given the sizes of the investments, it does take more time to be able to go through to shape up what the investment will look like, how big it’ll be, over what term, the rate of return – because the other important thing to stress to viewers is – this is not about handing out grants, and certainly not doing it on the basis of political colour-coded spreadsheets as we saw with the last government.

In fact, the social media users were less likely to have a negative attitude towards Jewish and Muslim people, irrespective of where they were on the political spectrum.

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Keir Starmer denies budget to blame for rise in mortgage rates

PM says budget stabilised the economy, while mortgage rates are ‘individual decisions for the banks’

Keir Starmer has conceded he was disappointed in the UK growth figures last week, but denied that his government’s budget was responsible for a recent rise in mortgage rates.

The prime minister told journalists travelling to the G20 summit in Rio: “What we have done with the budget is to stabilise the economy and that, in my view, was the essential first step.

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Shadow chancellor warns Reeves over EU ties after Bank chief says Brexit harming economy – as it happened

Mel Stride said there must be no suggestion of the UK going back into the EU single market or customs union

In news that will disappoint those of you who enjoy a Liberal Democrat stunt, PA has just reported that Ed Davey will not, as was planned, be taking a bus-driving lesson at a depot in Oxfordshire, due to logistical issues. Instead he will be visiting high-street businesses.

It is part of a campaign by the Liberal Democrats to get Labour to keep the bus fare price cap at £2 in England when it extends the scheme into next year.

The fare cap increase is like a bus tax for people across the country, impacting bus users and commuters already struggling to make ends meet. MPs must be given a say on this bus fare hike on behalf of their constituents.

Our communities have already paid too high a price for years of Conservative neglect and incompetence. This bus fare hike will hit cherished local businesses and high streets, many of which are already struggling.

Uncertainty around Labour’s first budget and high interest rates played their part, but [the GDP figures are] still a blow for Rachel Reeves, as [it] underlines difficulty of reaching her ambitious growth target.

Some in Labour want to recalibrate economic focus away from growth and towards cost of living ie “will people feel better off by time of next election?”

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City analysts overwhelmingly predict Bank of England interest rate cut

Rare agreement among forecasters gives 96% chance of today’s MPC meeting cutting borrowing costs to 4.75%

The Bank of England policymakers are widely expected to cut borrowing costs for businesses and homeowners by reducing official interest rates from 5% to 4.75% when they meet later today.

Financial markets are overwhelmingly forecasting that the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) will reduce rates for a second time when it announces its latest decision at noon.

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