In today’s newsletter: Flooding is predicted to become so bad that some towns may need to be abandoned, and it’s not even campaigners raising the alarm – but insurers

Good morning. For years, whenever I read about parts of Britain being wrecked by flooding, it always felt like something distant – because until your house is flooded, it’s hard to imagine it happening, isn’t it? Not any more.

According to a Guardian investigation, millions more homes across England, Scotland and Wales are at risk of devastating floods. In England alone, the number of properties exposed to flooding is expected to rise by more than a quarter, from 6.3m to 8m. The story gets worse for those in high-risk areas for flash flooding – which is harder to predict and protect against – where the frequency could surge by up to 66% by 2050. The picture is so bleak that, startlingly, some towns may one day have to be abandoned altogether.

Israel-Gaza war | The fragile ceasefire in Gaza faced its first test on Tuesday when Israel said the flow of aid into the devastated Palestinian territory would be cut by half and the crucial Rafah border crossing with Egypt would not open as planned, blaming Hamas for delays in the return of bodies of hostages.

UK child abuse inquiry | Keir Starmer’s national grooming gangs inquiry has stalled amid wrangles over its remit and difficulties in finding a senior legal figure willing to become its chair, the Guardian has been told.

Economics | The global economy has shown “unexpected resilience” to Donald Trump’s tariffs, but the full impact is yet to be felt, the IMF has warned. The forecast for economic growth in the UK has also been modestly increased, from 1.2% to 1.3% this year – though slightly downgraded next year, also to 1.3%.

Madagascar | Andry Rajoelina, the president of Madagascar, has said he fled the country in fear for his life after a military rebellion but did not announce his resignation in a speech broadcast on social media. They were Rajoelina’s first public comments since the a military unit called Capsat turned against his government in an apparent coup.

Music | D’Angelo, the Grammy-winning R&B singer who helped pioneer the sound of neo-soul, has died after a struggle with pancreatic cancer. He was 51.