Jeremy Hunt’s scope for tax cuts hit by higher-than-expected borrowing

Government borrowed £120.7bn in the last financial year, with just under £12bn in March

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for a substantial pre-election tax giveaway has been hit after the latest set of official figures showed the UK’s public finances in worse shape than thought at last month’s budget.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the government borrowed £120.7bn in the 2023-24 financial year – £6.6bn more than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected.

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Blow for Sunak as revised figures confirm UK did go into recession last year

Latest estimate from ONS says GDP declined by 0.3% in final quarter of 2023

Official figures have confirmed that the UK economy went into recession at the end of last year, after the latest estimate found it contracted in the last two quarters of 2023.

In a blow to the government’s economic standing, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, shrank by 0.3% in the last three months of the year, unrevised from an earlier estimate.

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Tory MP Robert Halfon quits as minister and James Heappey confirms resignation, paving way for mini reshuffle – as it happened

Robert Halfon quits as skills, apprenticeships and higher education minister as James Heappey confirms decision to step down

In interviews this morning Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, admitted that special educational needs provision was in crisis, Ben Quinn reports.

Universities in England could be told to terminate their arrangements with foreign countries if freedom of speech and academic freedom is undermined, the government’s free speech tsar has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Arif Ahmed, director for freedom of speech and academic freedom at the Office for Students (OfS), said many universities and colleges in England have “international arrangements” – including admitting overseas students on scholarships and hosting institutes partly funded by foreign governments. PA says:

The higher education regulator launched a consultation on guidance about freedom of speech, ahead of universities, colleges and student unions taking on new free speech duties.

The guidance includes examples to illustrate what higher education institutions may have to do to fulfil their new duties – due to come into effect in August – to secure freedom of speech within the law.

University A accepts international students on visiting scholarships funded by the government of country B. Scholars must accept the principles of the ruling party of country B, and direction from country B’s government via consular staff. Depending on the circumstances, these arrangements may undermine free speech and academic freedom at University A. If so, that university is likely to have to terminate or amend the scholarship agreement.

If it means that there are people who are employed by an institute who are preventing legitimate protests or shutting down lecturers from covering certain kinds of content regarding that country for instance, or that country’s foreign policy … If that behaviour amounts to a restriction of freedom of speech within the law, and someone brings a complaint to us, then we may find that the complaint is justified and then we make recommendations …

If there are problems, universities will have to do everything they can to act compatibly with their freedom-of-speech duties. Insofar as that means a rethinking of their relationship with other countries, obviously that’s something that would be a good idea for them to start thinking about now.

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ONS scraps plans to stop reporting the deaths of homeless people

U-turn comes after campaigners attacked proposal by data body for England and Wales as ‘callous’

The Office for National Statistics has scrapped plans to no longer report the deaths of homeless people after an outcry.

The data body for England and Wales proposed cutting the release of the figures to help increase the efficiency of health data. But the idea was attacked as “callous” by campaigners.

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Bank of England governor dampens hopes of interest rate cut

Andrew Bailey says cost of living had been higher than expected in December despite ‘encouraging’ inflation news

The Bank of England governor has doused hopes that better-than-expected inflation news last month will accelerate cuts in interest rates, stressing the need for further evidence of wage moderation before Threadneedle Street moves.

Appearing before the House of Lords economics committee on Wednesday, Andrew Bailey said it was “encouraging” that inflation had remained unchanged at 4% in January but the previous month’s figure for the cost of living had been higher than predicted.

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UK pay growth slows less than expected as workers bid up wages

December figures prompt predictions Bank of England may cut interest rates later than previously expected

Pay growth slowed less than expected in December, prompting predictions the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates later than previously expected.

Earnings growth, excluding bonuses, fell only modestly to 6.2% in October to December 2023 from a revised 6.7% in the previous three months, as workers continued to bid up their wages amid skills shortages and a record number of people with long-term sickness.

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Proportion of married people in England and Wales falls below 50% for first time

ONS figures, which include civil partnerships, spark calls for changes in laws for cohabiting couples

The proportion of people aged 16 or older in England and Wales who are married or in a civil partnership has fallen below 50% for the first time.

The figure dropped to 49.4% in 2022, according to the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

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UK economy returns to growth amid Black Friday spending lift

GDP rises by 0.3% in November after October decline, with car leasing and video games fuelling bounceback

The UK economy returned to growth in November after a recovery in consumer spending driven by Black Friday sales, with shoppers hunting for bargains as the key Christmas shopping season got under way.

Gross domestic product rose by 0.3% on the month, after a decline of 0.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). City economists had forecast more modest growth of 0.2%.

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Over-70s are UK’s most online adults after twentysomethings, survey shows

ONS data also reveals working mothers spend on average an hour and a quarter more a day on household chores than male partners

You may not catch them on TikTok or Snapchat, but the latest data shows that the over-70s are spending more time online than any generation besides Gen Z.

According to figures from the Office for National Statistics detailing how different Britons report spending their time, the 70-plus age group is second only to those in their 20s when it comes to the average amount of time using a computer or device as a primary activity (separate from working or watching streamed video).

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More than 500,000 under-35s in UK out of work due to long-term illness

Experts link 44% increase in four years to a growing mental health crisis and underinvestment in health services

More than half a million young people in the UK say they are out of work due to long-term illness, a 44% increase in just four years.

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows that more than 560,000 people aged between 16 and 34 were economically inactive – meaning they were not in work or seeking work – in the first three months of 2023 due to long-term sickness.

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UK inflation in unexpectedly steep fall to 3.9% amid lower bread and fuel prices

Forecast-beating drop in November takes rate to lowest level in more than two years

Britain’s two-year cost of living crisis eased last month as cheaper petrol and less expensive food helped send the annual inflation rate sharply lower to 3.9% – its second big monthly fall in succession.

In a much bigger decline than had been anticipated by economists, the annual rate of price rises fell from 4.6% in October to its lowest level since September 2021.

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Inflation calculator: find out how much UK household price rises affect you

This online tool will help you discover what is contributing to your household’s cost of living increases

Inflation has been soaring in the UK, with people being hit by higher prices for everyday essentials, but cost of living pressures are finally starting to ease.

The latest inflation rate for the 12 months to November 2023 means that goods and services cost 3.9% more than they did a year ago – in most cases, surpassing any pay rises workers can expect to receive.

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Average UK house sale price suffers first annual fall for 11 years

ONS says average price dropped 0.1% year on year in September, with those in London decreasing 1.1%

The average price of a home in the UK dropped by 0.1% in the year to September, official figures show – the first annual fall for more than a decade.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures, which are based on completed sales, have shown annual price inflation slowing since July 2022, when the headline rate stood at 13.8%.

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UK economy makes stronger recovery from pandemic than first thought

Revisions to figures show stronger performance than Germany and France but momentum starts to stall

The UK economy made a faster recovery from the Covid pandemic than previously estimated, according to revisions to official figures revealing a stronger performance than Germany and France.

In a boost for Rishi Sunak before the Conservative party conference in Manchester beginning this weekend, revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed gross domestic product was 1.8% above pre-pandemic levels at the end of the second quarter this year.

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UK wage growth jumps, making interest rate rise more likely

Unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 3.8% in three months to April, in sign of strength for jobs market

UK wages grew at a faster than expected pace in April, reinforcing expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show growth in average regular pay, excluding bonuses, strengthened to 7.2% in the three months to April – the highest level on record, excluding the Covid pandemic.

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Number of days lost to strikes is highest since the Thatcher era

Squeeze on households as pay growth falls at among fastest rates for 20 years

The number of working days lost to strike action last year reached the highest level since 1989, according to official figures showing that wage growth failed to keep pace with inflation amid the biggest real-terms fall on record.

The figures from the Office for National Statistics further highlight the squeeze on households in the cost of living crisis.

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UK can expect year of stagnation after narrowest of escapes from recession

Marginal expansions and contractions in 2023 will do little to solve a lack of investment and export shortfall

It was a recession in all but name: that is the conclusion of many economists who argue that while the official data shows the UK economy stood still in the last three months of 2022 rather than contracting, it is still in bad shape.

To be precise, the economy actually expanded by 0.01% in the fourth quarter, an increase so statistically insignificant that it is rounded down to zero. Had Britain not added just £77m to its £2.2tn gross domestic product (GDP) then it would have fallen into a technical recession, characterised by two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

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Hottest day of 2022 saw 638 more deaths than normal in England

Experts call major spike in deaths on 19 July and following day ‘extraordinary data’ and a wake-up call over dangers of extreme heat

The hottest day on record last summer resulted in 638 more deaths in England than normal, according to official figures, which experts said show the danger that extreme heat and climate change pose to human life.

The following day, when temperatures remained almost as high, 496 more people died than would usually be expected.

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Retail sales in Great Britain fall as shoppers rein in festive spending

Surprise December drop a result of cost of living crisis forcing people to cut budgets in run-up to Christmas

Retail sales in Great Britain unexpectedly fell by 1% last month as the cost of living crisis forced households to cut back on spending in the run-up to Christmas.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the surprise decline in sales volumes – economists had forecast a rise of 0.5% – was down to factors including rampant increases in food prices and a decline in online purchases as consumers worried about a wave of postal strikes affecting Christmas deliveries.

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Exodus of more than half a million from workforce ‘puts UK economy at risk’

Loss of employees since Covid raises fears of weaker growth and higher inflation, says Lords report

An exodus of more than half a million people from the British workforce since the Covid pandemic is putting the economy at risk of weaker growth and persistently higher inflation, a Lords report has warned.

The House of Lords economic affairs committee said the sharp rise in economic inactivity – when working-age adults are neither in employment nor looking for a job – since the onset of the health emergency was posing “serious challenges” to the economy.

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