Category Archives: Office for National Statistics

All UK families ‘to be worse off by 2030’ as poor bear the brunt, new data warns

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Keir Starmer has been dealt a fresh blow to his living standards pledge in advance of the spring statement

Living standards for all UK families are set to fall by 2030, with those on the lowest incomes declining twice as fast as middle and high earners, according to new data that raises serious questions about Keir Starmer’s pledge to make working people better off.

The grim economic analysis, produced by the respected Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), comes before the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, makes her spring statement on Wednesday in which she will announce new cuts to public spending rather than increase borrowing or raise taxes, so as to keep within the government’s “iron clad” fiscal rules.

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UK borrowing rises to £10.7bn in setback for Rachel Reeves

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February figure comes in higher than forecasts less than a week before chancellor’s spring statement

UK government borrowing rose by more than expected in February to £10.7bn, underscoring the challenge for Rachel Reeves before next week’s spring statement.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed borrowing – the difference between total public sector spending and income – was little changed from the same month a year earlier. However, over the financial year to date borrowing was up nearly £15bn on the same period last year.

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Shrinking economy offers unhelpful backdrop for Rachel Reeves’s growth push

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GDP goes in wrong direction as chancellor puts final touches to fiscal plans

For a government that has made growth its overriding mission, the 0.1% decline in GDP in January signalled by the Office for National Statistics will be depressing news.

As Rachel Reeves prepares to announce her spring statement on 26 March, the economy appears to be going in the wrong direction – underlining the fact that the Office for Budget Responsibility is likely to have presented her with notably weaker forecasts than in October.

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UK economy shrinks unexpectedly in blow to Rachel Reeves

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ONS data showing 0.1% fall in GDP in January comes less than two weeks before chancellor’s spring statement

The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in January, dealing a blow to Rachel Reeves before the spring statement later this month.

In a surprise to City economists, who expected 0.1% growth in January, the Office for National Statistics data showed the services sector failed to offset a decline in the industrial sector and maintain growth from the previous month.

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UK inflation jumps to 3%, reducing chance of early interest rate cut

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Annual CPI inflation rate hit 10-month high in January in blow to ministers amid rise in food bills and fuel costs

UK inflation accelerated faster than expected at the start of this year, eating into workers’ wages and reducing the chance of an interest rate cut next month.

The consumer prices index (CPI) measure rose to 3% in January, the Office for National Statistics reported, up from 2.5% in December.

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UK economy grows by 0.1% in unexpected boost for Rachel Reeves

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ONS data showing British national output rose in final quarter of 2024 confounds forecasts of 0.1% decline

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Britain’s economy unexpectedly picked up in the final three months of 2024, official figures have shown, easing pressure on the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, after flatlining during the summer.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show gross domestic product rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 – after zero growth in the previous three months – to beat the forecasts of City economists and the Bank of England for a decline of 0.1%.

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UK house prices rise at fastest rate in nearly two years

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Nationwide reports surprise growth despite near-record prices straining affordability

House prices in the UK grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in November, in a surprise acceleration despite near-record highs straining affordability, according to figures from Nationwide.

The annual growth rate rebounded to 3.7% in November, up from 2.4% in October, according to the UK’s biggest building society. That was the fastest rate since November 2022.

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UK inflation falls below 2% for first time since 2021 in boost to Rachel Reeves

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Surprise annual drop to 1.7% in September raises chance of interest rate cuts, increasing budget leeway

Inflation in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in three and a half years, giving a pre-budget boost to Rachel Reeves as expectations grow for the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the consumer prices index dropped sharply to 1.7%, down from 2.2% in August, in a bigger fall than anticipated in financial markets, driven by lower air fares and petrol prices.

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UK inflation stays at 2.2% as lower petrol prices offset by higher air fares

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Annual rate in August unchanged, and hovering above Bank of England’s 2% target

The UK’s annual inflation rate rose by 2.2% in August, matching the increase in July, as lower petrol prices at the pump were offset by higher air fares.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the government’s preferred measure of the cost of living remained steady, matching forecasts by City economists and hovering just above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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UK economy unexpectedly flatlines for second month in row

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Pre-election slowdown continues in July despite economists predicting growth of 0.2%

The anticipated post-election bounceback in the UK economy failed to materialise as activity flatlined in July for a second month, , according to the latest official data.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the pre-election stalling of activity in June was followed by another month in which gross domestic product remained unchanged.

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‘Share government data to boost economy’, says UK statistics watchdog chief

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The UK Statistics Authority’s chair says linking data sets from departments could aid growth and improve services

• We need to make data sharing across government the rule

Ministers could find ways to boost the economy and improve public services by combining data from separate government departments, according to the head of the UK’s statistics watchdog.

Sir Robert Chote, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, said that too often government data was “siloed” because departments and other bodies were worried that people may uncover weaknesses in the data or even reach inconvenient conclusions.

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Watchdog ends investigation into description of UK economy ‘going gangbusters’

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Exclusive: ONS official’s remarks, not intended as comment on overall state of the economy, were later used by Sunak

The UK’s statistics watchdog has closed an investigation into remarks made by an official about the economy “going gangbusters” that were cited by Rishi Sunak.

It was looking into the comments made by chief economist of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last month amid concerns that politicians could misuse economic data in the run-up to the election.

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Big drop in UK inflation rate disguises more disappointing details

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Service sector inflation, monitored closely by Bank of England, barely budged in April

The annual inflation rate fell sharply in April. Prices are rising more slowly than at any time in almost three years. Inflation is lower in the UK than it is in the EU.

Even so, the latest bulletin on the cost of living from the Office for National Statistics was mildly disappointing. April’s inflation figure was always going to be good, with a sharp fall guaranteed by the fact the energy price increases of a year earlier were not repeated.

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UK inflation falls by less than expected to 2.3%, reducing chance of June rate cut

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Drop in April is smaller than forecast but level is still lowest in almost three years

UK inflation fell to 2.3% in April – its lowest level for almost three years – but the decline was smaller than expected, denting hopes of an early interest rate cut.

City analysts had forecast the annual increase in the cost of goods and services would fall to 2.1%, close to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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Jeremy Hunt’s scope for tax cuts hit by higher-than-expected borrowing

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Government borrowed £120.7bn in the last financial year, with just under £12bn in March

Jeremy Hunt’s scope for a substantial pre-election tax giveaway has been hit after the latest set of official figures showed the UK’s public finances in worse shape than thought at last month’s budget.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the government borrowed £120.7bn in the 2023-24 financial year – £6.6bn more than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had expected.

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Blow for Sunak as revised figures confirm UK did go into recession last year

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Latest estimate from ONS says GDP declined by 0.3% in final quarter of 2023

Official figures have confirmed that the UK economy went into recession at the end of last year, after the latest estimate found it contracted in the last two quarters of 2023.

In a blow to the government’s economic standing, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, shrank by 0.3% in the last three months of the year, unrevised from an earlier estimate.

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Tory MP Robert Halfon quits as minister and James Heappey confirms resignation, paving way for mini reshuffle – as it happened

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Robert Halfon quits as skills, apprenticeships and higher education minister as James Heappey confirms decision to step down

In interviews this morning Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, admitted that special educational needs provision was in crisis, Ben Quinn reports.

Universities in England could be told to terminate their arrangements with foreign countries if freedom of speech and academic freedom is undermined, the government’s free speech tsar has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Arif Ahmed, director for freedom of speech and academic freedom at the Office for Students (OfS), said many universities and colleges in England have “international arrangements” – including admitting overseas students on scholarships and hosting institutes partly funded by foreign governments. PA says:

The higher education regulator launched a consultation on guidance about freedom of speech, ahead of universities, colleges and student unions taking on new free speech duties.

The guidance includes examples to illustrate what higher education institutions may have to do to fulfil their new duties – due to come into effect in August – to secure freedom of speech within the law.

University A accepts international students on visiting scholarships funded by the government of country B. Scholars must accept the principles of the ruling party of country B, and direction from country B’s government via consular staff. Depending on the circumstances, these arrangements may undermine free speech and academic freedom at University A. If so, that university is likely to have to terminate or amend the scholarship agreement.

If it means that there are people who are employed by an institute who are preventing legitimate protests or shutting down lecturers from covering certain kinds of content regarding that country for instance, or that country’s foreign policy … If that behaviour amounts to a restriction of freedom of speech within the law, and someone brings a complaint to us, then we may find that the complaint is justified and then we make recommendations …

If there are problems, universities will have to do everything they can to act compatibly with their freedom-of-speech duties. Insofar as that means a rethinking of their relationship with other countries, obviously that’s something that would be a good idea for them to start thinking about now.

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ONS scraps plans to stop reporting the deaths of homeless people

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U-turn comes after campaigners attacked proposal by data body for England and Wales as ‘callous’

The Office for National Statistics has scrapped plans to no longer report the deaths of homeless people after an outcry.

The data body for England and Wales proposed cutting the release of the figures to help increase the efficiency of health data. But the idea was attacked as “callous” by campaigners.

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Bank of England governor dampens hopes of interest rate cut

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Andrew Bailey says cost of living had been higher than expected in December despite ‘encouraging’ inflation news

The Bank of England governor has doused hopes that better-than-expected inflation news last month will accelerate cuts in interest rates, stressing the need for further evidence of wage moderation before Threadneedle Street moves.

Appearing before the House of Lords economics committee on Wednesday, Andrew Bailey said it was “encouraging” that inflation had remained unchanged at 4% in January but the previous month’s figure for the cost of living had been higher than predicted.

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UK pay growth slows less than expected as workers bid up wages

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December figures prompt predictions Bank of England may cut interest rates later than previously expected

Pay growth slowed less than expected in December, prompting predictions the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates later than previously expected.

Earnings growth, excluding bonuses, fell only modestly to 6.2% in October to December 2023 from a revised 6.7% in the previous three months, as workers continued to bid up their wages amid skills shortages and a record number of people with long-term sickness.

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