New report upgrades outlook for UK economy with growth now forecast at 1.1% rather than 0.7%
The International Monetary Fund has warned the trade tariffs favoured by US presidential candidate Donald Trump could hurt global growth, as it upgraded its forecast for the UK economy.
The Washington-based organisation said tariffs trigger tit-for-tat trade wars that impoverish the economies involved in the dispute and the wider global economy.
Continue reading...ONS data shows strong performance in second quarter with service sector helping drive growth
Britain’s economy has extended its recovery from recession after recording growth of 0.6% in the three months to June, handing a boost to the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in the run-up to the autumn budget.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show gross domestic product continued to grow in the second quarter, after a rise of 0.7% in the first three months of 2024. The reading matched the forecasts of City economists.
Continue reading...Small and medium-sized firms badly hit as huge drop in apparel sales helps fuel 18% slide in all-non food exports
UK exports of clothing and footwear to the EU have dived since Brexit, according to a new study that shows the extent to which complex regulations and red tape at the border have deterred firms from sending goods across the Channel.
Exports of clothing and footwear sold to EU countries have fallen from £7.4bn in 2019 to £2.7bn in 2023, helping fuel an 18% slump in sales of all non-food goods exports to countries covered by the EU single market, according to the consultancy Retail Economics and online marketplace Tradebyte.
Continue reading...Service sector inflation, monitored closely by Bank of England, barely budged in April
The annual inflation rate fell sharply in April. Prices are rising more slowly than at any time in almost three years. Inflation is lower in the UK than it is in the EU.
Even so, the latest bulletin on the cost of living from the Office for National Statistics was mildly disappointing. April’s inflation figure was always going to be good, with a sharp fall guaranteed by the fact the energy price increases of a year earlier were not repeated.
Continue reading...Drop in April is smaller than forecast but level is still lowest in almost three years
UK inflation fell to 2.3% in April – its lowest level for almost three years – but the decline was smaller than expected, denting hopes of an early interest rate cut.
City analysts had forecast the annual increase in the cost of goods and services would fall to 2.1%, close to the Bank of England’s 2% target.
Continue reading...Policymakers say they want to see more evidence that price pressures are easing before cutting rates
The Bank of England has signalled it could start cutting interest rates as early as June after inflation was found to be “moving in the right direction”, as it kept borrowing costs on hold at 5.25% for the sixth time in a row.
Alongside the decision to keep rates on hold, the Bank said inflation was already on course to hit its target of 2% and would fall to just 1.6% in two years, opening the door to future cuts in interests.
Continue reading...Employers are reining in hiring plans despite improved business confidence driven by services sector
Workers in the UK can expect less generous salary settlements this year, as employers rein in hiring plans, according to a report from the professional body for human resources.
In its regular labour market outlook, which gauges employers’ expectations for the year ahead, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said employers were pencilling in the most meagre pay rises since the pandemic.
Continue reading...GDP rises by 0.3% in November after October decline, with car leasing and video games fuelling bounceback
The UK economy returned to growth in November after a recovery in consumer spending driven by Black Friday sales, with shoppers hunting for bargains as the key Christmas shopping season got under way.
Gross domestic product rose by 0.3% on the month, after a decline of 0.3% in October, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). City economists had forecast more modest growth of 0.2%.
Continue reading...Cost of living crisis drives consumers to low-cost pub chain but company remains cautious
JD Wetherspoon has bounced back to profit for the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic three years ago, as budget-conscious consumers flocked to the low-cost pub chain amid the cost of living crisis.
Wetherspoon’s, which runs about 830 pubs across the UK and Ireland, reported a pre-tax profit of almost £43m in the year to 30 July.
Continue reading...Rate tops level last seen after Liz Truss mini-budget as fears of global inflation and US political instability spook markets
Britain’s long-term cost of borrowing has hit its highest level since 1998, as political instability in the US and fears of sustained high levels of inflation triggered a sell-off in global bond markets.
The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year UK government bonds hit 5.115% early on Wednesday, according to the financial data provider Refinitiv.
Continue reading...Value of fast-track grocery delivery service believed to be quarter of the $11.8bn it was worth 18 months ago
The fast-track grocery delivery service Getir is reportedly now worth a quarter of what it was valued at 18 months ago, after a big shakeout in the sector amid declining consumer demand.
The Istanbul-based company is raising $500m in a funding round that will value the business at $2.5bn and is expected to close later this month, according to a Financial Times report citing people familiar with the matter.
Continue reading...Fresh signs of weakness in Chinese economy and weak UK and eurozone data spook investors
Fears about the health of the global economy have intensified following downbeat news about service sector activity in China, the eurozone and the UK.
Share prices fell in Asia and the pound dropped to a 12-week low against the US dollar after fresh signs of weakness in China triggered speculation that its post-lockdown recovery was running out of steam.
Continue reading...Tim Martin says Bank of England is right to ask firms to be mindful but advice should not be taken too literally
The boss of JD Wetherspoon has warned it could be “catastrophic” for pubs and restaurants to hold off raising prices as costs continue to soar, as the pub chain revealed that the “ferocious” impact of inflation has fuelled a dramatic increase in its bills.
Tim Martin said that Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, was right to warn companies to be mindful of how much they put up prices to avoid continuing to fuel an inflationary cycle, after the headline annual rate unexpectedly rose to 10.4% last month.
Continue reading...Consortium spearheaded by Direct Line founder, Sir Peter Wood, have swooped for company
A consortium spearheaded by Direct Line founder Sir Peter Wood has swooped for the funeral services company Dignity in the first UK takeover attempt of the year.
A subsidiary of Valderrama – a joint venture between Wood’s investment firm SPWOne and investment house Castelnau Group – has made a possible offer for the London-listed company, whose board recommended the deal to shareholders.
Continue reading...Figure worse than predicted and head of industry body expects ‘more business failures’ in early 2023
The rail strikes have had a worse impact on the UK’s hospitality industry than expected – costing bars, pubs, restaurants and hotels £1.5bn in December alone – according to the head of the body representing the sector.
Kate Nicholls, the chief executive of UKHospitality, said this had contributed to a “perfect storm” for businesses battling high energy bills and a cost of living crisis, adding this meant “undoubtedly we will see more business failures” in the next three months.
Continue reading...More than 1,000 staff who deliver money to firms such as Barclays, Asda and Tesco to take action
More than 1,000 security workers who deliver cash and coins to some of the UK’s biggest banks and supermarkets have voted to strike in December, raising the prospect of potential cash shortages in the run-up to Christmas.
The 48-hour strike by 1,156 members of the GMB union who work for the security company G4S is due to take place from 3am on 5 December, after a 97% vote in favour of industrial action in a dispute over pay. However, only 665 workers voted in the ballot, a turnout of 58%.
Continue reading...Prime minister says UK should not sacrifice quality for speed as he seeks to improve terms at G20 talks
Rishi Sunak has hinted he will slow down progress on the India trade deal to improve its terms, saying the UK should not “sacrifice quality for speed”.
The comments, which preceded talks with the UK prime minister’s Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, at the G20 on Wednesday, suggested a marked change of approach from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, who prioritised speed and hard deadlines, having pledged a “deal for Diwali” that did not materialise.
Continue reading...Workers took action after share of tips paid on credit and debit cards was cut from 70% to 50% in 2021
Pizza Express waiting staff have won back a bigger slice of their tips after a year-long campaign against a change that handed more to kitchen staff.
The restaurant workers were forced to take action after their share of tips and service charges paid on credit and debit cards was cut from 70% to 50% last year at a time when pay was already under pressure from social-distancing measures that limited the number of diners.
Continue reading...The weather couldn’t dampen spirits as the Yorkshire resort’s hoteliers and guests celebrated the return of domestic travel
The sky was overcast, a chill wind blew in from the sea, and everyone was wearing coats. But for four-year-old Caitlin and two-year-old Jim, there was little to complain about – they were on a beach and they were building sandcastles.
For their parents, Lindsay and Jim Roger, a week’s holiday in the North Yorkshire seaside town of Scarborough was a blessed relief. Lindsay is a nurse who has been working on Covid wards, while Jim works in construction. As key workers with young children, lockdown has been difficult but they were “really pleased” to be able to travel again. “It’s just nice to get out and nice to see the sea,” Jim said. “It makes such a change from the house and the garden.”
Continue reading...Twelve months after the pandemic struck the Guardian’s economic tracker reveals real risk of lasting damage
When Boris Johnson announced the first stay-at-home order, effectively shutting down whole sections of the economy, it was hoped the tide could be turned within 12 weeks. As many months later, lockdown measures are being relaxed for a third time and Britain still faces a lengthy road to recovery from the worst recession for 300 years.
As restrictions ease, the chief economist at the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, warned that despite the reopening of the economy, the risk of a “jobs equivalent of long Covid” remains for workers across the country.
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