Labour shifts poll tactics to target fearful Tory over-65s

Alarm grows over possible pension cuts as research suggests Jeremy Hunt tax cut announcement was ‘blunder’

Labour is to wage a new campaign to win over Tory-supporting pensioners in an attempt to neutralise one of the government’s last remaining electoral strengths, amid evidence the Conservatives are now performing as badly among the age group as they did under Liz Truss’s leadership.

With less than a fortnight to go until local elections in England, which some Tories fear could trigger an attempt to topple Rishi Sunak, the Observer understands that Keir Starmer’s top officials are reorienting their campaign after detecting alarm among pensioners over the impact a Conservative tax-cutting pledge could have on pensions and the NHS.

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Tory MP Robert Halfon quits as minister and James Heappey confirms resignation, paving way for mini reshuffle – as it happened

Robert Halfon quits as skills, apprenticeships and higher education minister as James Heappey confirms decision to step down

In interviews this morning Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, admitted that special educational needs provision was in crisis, Ben Quinn reports.

Universities in England could be told to terminate their arrangements with foreign countries if freedom of speech and academic freedom is undermined, the government’s free speech tsar has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Arif Ahmed, director for freedom of speech and academic freedom at the Office for Students (OfS), said many universities and colleges in England have “international arrangements” – including admitting overseas students on scholarships and hosting institutes partly funded by foreign governments. PA says:

The higher education regulator launched a consultation on guidance about freedom of speech, ahead of universities, colleges and student unions taking on new free speech duties.

The guidance includes examples to illustrate what higher education institutions may have to do to fulfil their new duties – due to come into effect in August – to secure freedom of speech within the law.

University A accepts international students on visiting scholarships funded by the government of country B. Scholars must accept the principles of the ruling party of country B, and direction from country B’s government via consular staff. Depending on the circumstances, these arrangements may undermine free speech and academic freedom at University A. If so, that university is likely to have to terminate or amend the scholarship agreement.

If it means that there are people who are employed by an institute who are preventing legitimate protests or shutting down lecturers from covering certain kinds of content regarding that country for instance, or that country’s foreign policy … If that behaviour amounts to a restriction of freedom of speech within the law, and someone brings a complaint to us, then we may find that the complaint is justified and then we make recommendations …

If there are problems, universities will have to do everything they can to act compatibly with their freedom-of-speech duties. Insofar as that means a rethinking of their relationship with other countries, obviously that’s something that would be a good idea for them to start thinking about now.

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Sunak warned unfunded axing of national insurance would harm services

Economists say making the policy an election pledge could cost £40bn, which is badly needed for health, education and elsewhere

Rishi Sunak has been warned against fighting an election on an unfunded plan to abolish employee national insurance amid projections the move could blow a £40bn hole in the public finances.

As the pre-election battle on the economy between the Conservatives and Labour intensified, the prime minister was on Thursday under mounting pressure to explain how the measure could be afforded while public services were crumbling.

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Budget 2024 live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance, abolishes non-dom status and raises child benefit threshold

NI cut of 2p announced, along with new tax on vapes, end of tax relief for holiday lettings and more cash for NHS IT system

Jeremy Hunt is expected to extend the windfall tax on energy companies in the budget to help fund his national insurance cut. Extending the windfall tax is a Labour proposal that the Tories used to dismiss, and, according to a Daily Telegraph story, Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is so angry about the move that colleagues thought he might resign. Ross is MP for Moray, in the north-east of Scotland, and he is worried that the potential impact on the oil and gas industry in Scotland will cost the party votes.

In their story, Nick Gutteridge, Dominic Penna and Simon Johnson say Ross had a row with Rishi Sunak about this at a reception on Sunday night. They report:

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives had doggedly sought out Mr Sunak across the crowded, stifling room, determined to give him a piece of his mind about the Treasury’s plans to extend the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas giants for an extra year.

What followed was a “heated” discussion between the pair, with Mr Ross warning the move would hammer the Tory vote north of the border and the prime minister countering that it was necessary to deliver a National Insurance cut for millions of workers.

Glen O’Hara, professor of modern history at Oxford Brookes University, points to the gaping trade deficit left for Labour in 1964, when outgoing Tory Chancellor Reginald Maudling infamously left a note for his successor reading: “Good luck, old cock … sorry to leave it in such a mess.”

Conservative Chancellor Norman Lamont’s pre-election budget in 1992 introduced a lower rate of income tax which Labour opposed, allowing the Tories to portray them as a “high-tax party.” The Tories unexpectedly went on to win the subsequent poll.

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National insurance: how much will the 2p cut leave workers better off?

Jeremy Hunt said his budget measure will benefit 27 million people – here’s how it will work

A big national insurance cut was the centrepiece of Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement and he has done the same again for the spring budget . But just how much better off will UK employees really be?

The chancellor is cutting the main rate of national insurance contributions (Nics) paid by workers from 10% to 8% with effect from 6 April 2024, which he said would benefit 27 million workers. He also announced changes to the national insurance paid by those who are self-employed.

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Budget 2024: Jeremy Hunt announces 2p cut in national insurance

Chancellor also scraps ‘non-dom’ tax breaks and slashes capital gains on property in pre-election gambit

Jeremy Hunt has announced a 2p national insurance cut in his budget as a pre-election gambit to revive flatlining opinion poll ratings and reboot Britain’s economy from recession.

In what could be the last major economic intervention before voters go to the polls, the chancellor said the government was making progress on its economic priorities and could now help hard-pressed families by permanently lowering certain taxes.

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Sunak suffers defeats in House of Lords over Rwanda bill – as it happened

Prime minister suffers defeats in House of Lords over Rwanda bill. This live blog is closed

There will be one urgent question in the Commons today at 3.30pm, on the Home Office’s decision to publish 13 reports from the former independent chief inspector of borders and immigration last week on Thursday afternoon.

The former minister Paul Scully has announced he will stand down at the next election in a statement suggesting the Conservative party has “lost its way” and is heading down “an ideological cul-de-sac”.

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Sunak hints at further national insurance cuts in spring budget

Government wants to make life easier for working people, he says at Scottish Tory conference

Rishi Sunak has issued a strong hint that there could be further cuts in national insurance rates in next week’s budget.

The prime minister told reporters gathered at the Scottish Tory conference in Aberdeen on Friday that he wanted to make life easier for working people across the UK, particularly at a time when the Scottish National party government was raising income taxes from April for anyone in Scotland earning above £28,850.

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Chancellor considers further national insurance cut to take heat off Rishi Sunak

Jeremy Hunt targets further reduction in ‘jobs tax’ in March budget

The government is considering handing workers another tax cut with a further reduction in national insurance, amid desperate attempts to move on from a campaign to destabilise Rishi Sunak by the Tory right.

With frustration within the cabinet that the Conservative party has been unable to free itself from internal warring over Sunak’s immigration plans and leadership, the prime minister and his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, are focusing on the tax cuts that will frame their election pitch.

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No bounce for the Tories after tax-cutting budget, poll shows

Opinium poll for the Observer reveals the public is unimpressed with Jeremy Hunt’s attempt to woo them by trimming national insurance

Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories.

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Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt looks to cut UK taxes and ‘turbo-charge growth’

Amid less gloomy OBR forecasts the chancellor is expected to take first steps towards cutting personal taxes

Jeremy Hunt will announce 110 measures to boost Britain’s stagnant economy and bow to demands from anxious Tory MPs for tax cuts when he delivers his second autumn statement on Wednesday.

In one of the last set-piece economic events before the general election, the chancellor will pledge to “turbo charge” growth while taking the first steps to cut personal taxes after recent sharp increases.

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Mini-budget 2022: pound crashes as chancellor cuts stamp duty and top rate of income tax – live

Tax cuts to cost Treasury around £37bn in 2023-24, official figures reveal

There are no urgent questions in the morning, and so Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, will be delivering his statement soon after 9.30am.

The Commons starts sitting at 9.30am, but they always begin with prayers in private, and so Kwarteng will be up a few minutes later.

The last time they did it one third of the beneficiaries were people buying second homes or buy to let, so we are sceptical that this is the magic bullet to increase homeownership. What we really need to do is to build more houses and to help get people onto the property ladder by increasing the supply of housing.

When this has been done before, it has often fuelled an already hot market and many of the beneficiaries have been people buying a second or third home, rather than the first time buyers that we really want to help who are often trapped in private rented accommodation where they’re paying as much in rent every month as they would in a mortgage.

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National insurance increase will be reversed from 6 November, says Kwasi Kwarteng – UK politics live

The chancellor says the move will save 28m people £330 on average next year

Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time, a demographic milestone for a state that was designed a century ago to have a permanent Protestant majority, my colleague Rory Carroll reports.

Thérèse Coffey is deputy prime minister as well as health secretary. Speaking on ITV’s Good Morning Britain this morning, and responding to a question from the former Labour MP Ed Balls, who was presenting, she said that as deputy PM whould be would “chairing things like the home affairs committee and different elements like that”. But she rejected claims this meant she would be doing the health job part time. She said:

I’m conscious that in two weeks we’ve already pulled together our plan for patients and we will continue to develop that.

I don’t think it will be a case of being part-time ... We don’t have fixed working hours.

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Local election leaflets show Tory candidates are ‘ashamed’ to be associated with Boris Johnson, Labour says – as it happened

Angela Rayner says Tory candidates at the local elections ‘are trying to hide from their own government’s record’. This live blog is closed – please follow this one for updates on the war in Ukraine

Savanta ComRes has published some new polling on voting intention in Scottish parliaement elections. Here are the figures for the constituency section.

And here are the figures for the list section.

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National insurance rise forces UK employers to shoulder £9bn tax burden

Bosses say 1.25-point rise heaps pressure on firms already enduring soaring costs linked to Covid and Brexit

Britain’s employers are being forced to shoulder a £9bn tax rise after the government pushed ahead with raising national insurance on Wednesday despite stiff opposition.

Company bosses said the 1.25-percentage-point rise in national insurance contributions (NICs), which is paid by workers and their employers, would add to already severe pressure from runaway inflation and soaring business costs this year linked to Covid, Brexit and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

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Raise benefits and pensions to help lower earners, thinktank tells Rishi Sunak

Resolution Foundation says pegging benefits to inflation will target help to needy better than scrapping NI rise

Rishi Sunak should consider raising benefits and pensions to keep pace with inflation, research has suggested, as the chancellor faced increasing pressure to tackle the cost-of-living squeeze in this week’s spring budgetary statement.

Increasing benefits by an extra five percentage points, by 8.1% rather than the 3.1% currently planned, would give four times as much help for low-to-middle income households for every pound spent as scrapping the planned national insurance rise, the Resolution Foundation said.

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Ukraine crisis puts Sunak under new pressure to axe national insurance rise

Tory MPs and business groups urge chancellor to scrap increase intended to fund NHS and social care amid fears of stagflation

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under renewed pressure from MPs and business groups to rethink plans to increase national insurance next month, as fears grow that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will dramatically worsen the cost of living crisis and plunge the economy into “stagflation”.

Both Tory and Labour MPs believe Sunak can still be persuaded to ditch the 1.25 percentage point rise – announced last September to fund the NHS and social care – and want him to use the potentially devastating effects of events in Ukraine on prices as justification for what they say is an urgently needed U-turn.

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Boris Johnson to try to regain control with Brexit bill and policy blitz

PM hopes to move on from parties scandal with plans to make it easier to scrap EU laws and tackle cost of living crisis

Boris Johnson will attempt to seize back control of the government agenda this week with a policy blitz, a Brexit bill and flying visit to Ukraine, as Westminster remains in the grip of paralysis over the Sue Gray and police inquiries into No 10 parties.

Amid frustration in No 10 at the uncertainty surrounding the report on rule-breaking parties in Downing Street, sources said Johnson was determined to deflect public outrage with a schedule of high-profile announcements and photo opportunities that he also hopes will show MPs he remains focused.

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Boris Johnson lets slip manifesto pledge to cut national insurance

PM’s apparent blunder over £12,500 threshold could benefit him amid ‘factchecking’ row

Boris Johnson has said he wants to raise the national insurance threshold to £12,500, letting slip a major Tory tax cut from the manifesto as he was speaking to workers in Teesside.

The prime minister blurted out the key announcement as he was pressed by an employee at a fabrication yard about whether he would help “people like us”, not just the rich.

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