Monday briefing: What’s next for no-drama Starmer as his ‘political challenges’ pile up?

In today’s newsletter: Our senior political correspondent talks about how the coming days and weeks may unfold for the Labour government, and how Keir Starmer ended up the most unpopular prime minister in memory

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Good morning. Today’s the day, probably. Keir Starmer is expected to announce that he will step down as prime minister, after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham to become party leader.

This follows the Manchester mayor’s emphatic victory in last Thursday’s Makerfield byelection, where he leveraged his popularity and the prevailing anti-Starmer mood to secure more votes than Reform and Restore combined, cementing his credentials as the man who can take on the hard right in the next general election.

Middle East | High-stakes talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue for the rest of the week in Switzerland, after a tense start that saw Iranian negotiators walk out in protest at a stream of threats issued by Donald Trump on social media.

Edinburgh | Police Scotland said a man was charged after a series of attacks in Edinburgh on Friday night that are being treated as potential anti-Muslim hate crimes. Counter-terrorism officers were brought in to investigate the attacks in which five people were injured.

UK weather | The Met Office forecasts that extremely high temperatures could last from Monday until Thursday, leading to health concerns for elderly and vulnerable people.

UK news | Police have named the driver killed in the Bedford train crash on Friday, as his family said they “are devastated by his loss”.

Prisons | Pet ferrets kept as therapy animals at the UK’s largest children’s prison have been co-opted by managers to kill rats, resulting in a bloody incident and concerns over child and animal welfare.

Tuesday | This day marks the 10 years since the UK voted to leave the EU. A Guardian report analysing the complex legacy of Brexit through boats, bankers and borders is a good place to consider the legacy of leaving the EU.

Tuesday | Also this day, Peter Murrell, the ex-chief executive of the SNP, is likely to be sentenced to prison custody after pleading guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from the party.

Wednesday | Donna Ockenden will publish her review of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Britain’s biggest maternity care scandal.

Friday | Kings Charles will become the first head of state to reveal their personal tax bill, and will release other financial reports for the royal household.

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Starmer expected to announce exit plan to clear way for Burnham to become PM

Ministers say Starmer will set out his intentions on Monday morning with an autumn departure the most likely option

Keir Starmer is expected to announce a timetable for his departure on Monday morning, clearing the way for Andy Burnham to become prime minister without a formal contest by the autumn.

Cabinet ministers say Starmer will set out his intentions outside No 10 Downing Street, starting a process of the UK installing its seventh prime minister in a decade.

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Transition timetable: what a Starmer autumn handover could look like

New leader could be chosen unchallenged or after a quick contest while outgoing PM has time to finalise his legacy

If the predictions are proved correct and Keir Starmer does announce a timetable for an autumn departure from Downing Street, the machinery of government will again kick into gear for a handover of power – but one that will be, by UK standards, relatively leisurely.

While many democracies build in lengthy transition periods – a defeated or retiring US president serves for nearly three months after their successor has been picked – the UK tends to do things at speed. A losing prime minister will typically get out of 10 Downing Street the morning after an election while the removal vans of their replacements lurk idling around the corner.

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Labour MP pushes Burnham to launch leadership bid ‘really quickly’ after Makerfield byelection result – UK politics live

Rachael Maskell said she hoped Andy Burnham could become prime minister before the Labour party conference in September

Andy Burnham may have trouble getting through to Keir Starmer if he tries ringing him after the Makerfield byelection to urge him to set a timetable for his departure. Burnham reportedly wants to call Starmer this weekend. (See 9.47am.) But, in his interview with Sky News, Starmer said: “I’m sure I’ll talk to Andy after the weekend.”

If Starmer declines to take Burnham’s call, he may be following Ed Miliband’s example. In a Times story today, Patrick Maguire and Steven Swinford report:

Sir Keir Starmer’s relationship with Ed Miliband has broken down to such an extent that the energy secretary has been accused of “ghosting” the prime minister in recent weeks.

Senior government sources claimed that Miliband declined to take calls from the prime minister during a tense stand-off over defence spending.

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UK defence spending plan ‘well short of what’s required’ and harder choices needed, says John Healey – as it happened

Ex-defence secretary John Healey and ex-defence minister Al Carns have given resignation statements to MPs

Speaking to reporters at the G7, Keir Starmer also defended the defence investment plan (DIP) draft that led to John Healey’s resignation as defence secretary last week. Starmer confirmed that Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is getting some input before the publication of the DIP in its final version.

Starmer said:

The position on investment in defence is firstly that we increased last year defence spending from 2.3% to 2.6%, that’s the biggest increase since the 1980s, and that means £270bn will be spent this parliament on defence.

On top of that [the] defence investment plan which obviously gives us capability for the future. We will put even more money in relation to that. I’ve been really clear that’s required difficult decisions, I have taken the decision to reallocate money from other departments.

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Wes Streeting plans to increase high-skilled immigration if he becomes PM

Leadership hopeful to also say tax revenues from new North Sea oil and gasfields should be used to cut energy bills

Wes Streeting’s pitch to be the next Labour leader will include a plan to increase high-skilled immigration to the UK, arguing that Donald Trump is telling scientists and AI experts they are not welcome in the US.

In a speech this coming week, the former health secretary will also say that tax revenues from new North Sea oil and gasfields should be used to cut energy bills.

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Business secretary attacks ‘entitlement’ of Starmer leadership rivals

Peter Kyle says British politics fails to reward political accomplishment and Labour risks aping Tory instability

The Labour party has not learned the right lessons from the Conservatives about changing leader, a senior cabinet minister has warned, saying in a swipe at potential challengers that “entitlement is not a qualification”.

Peter Kyle, the business secretary, said he was worried that British politics “rewards the wrong behaviour” and there was little credit for the work of his own department, including negotiating trade deals, rescue packages for companies and preserving British industry.

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Milburn says migrants not to blame for Neets crisis but falling immigration creates ‘opportunity’ – UK politics live

Major report on young people not in employment, education or training warns ‘we have neither a system or a plan to deal with it’

Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, is introducing Alan Milburn.

He says Milburn’s report is “really important and powerful”.

I could see in the first few weeks after being appointed as the secretary of state what was happening, both in human and in financial terms, [in terms of youth unemployment].

And I knew that we had to get properly under the bonnet of this problem, because there’s a lot more thing than one thing happening here …

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New Mandelson revelations cast doubt on claim vetting decision was borderline, Thornberry says – as it happened

This blog is now closed, you can read more on this story here

Zack Polanski, the Green party leader, posted this on social media about Tony Blair’s latest intervention this morning.

Tony Blair.

What the billionaire class have paid for.

Spot the difference between “Tony Blair says” and “Nigel Farage says”

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Tony Blair tells Starmer and rivals: abandon net zero and move closer to Trump

In highly unusual intervention, ex-PM says his party’s ‘almost infinite capacity for self-delusion’ makes it likely to lose next election

Tony Blair has accused Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting of putting Labour’s future at risk by abandoning the centre ground, warning that the party’s “almost infinite capacity for self-delusion” means it is likely to lose the next election.

In a scathing 5,700-word attack on the prime minister and his would-be successors published on Tuesday night, Blair argued for the government to crack down on welfare spending, abandon restrictions on oil and gas and smooth relations with Donald Trump.

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Labour says Reform UK ‘in chaos’ as Zia Yusuf publicly tells Jenrick he’s got party’s deportation policy wrong – UK politics live

‘Robert’s answer is not Reform policy’, Yusuf said about an answer that Jenrick gave to journalists days earlier

Keir Starmer has said that SNP leaders need to explain why they did not realise that Peter Murrell was stealing more than £400,000 from the party.

Asked about yesterday’s court proceedings in Edinburgh, where Murrell admitting embezzling money from the party to spend on luxury goods, Starmer said:

I think anybody looking at what’s happening up in Scotland will be baffled that those at the top of the SNP say they didn’t know anything about what was going on, so clearly there are questions that need to be answered.

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Streeting says he resigned because Labour ‘in fight of our lives against nationalism’, and is currently losing – UK politics live

Former health secretary standing down after saying he no longer had confidence in Keir Starmer as PM

Labour is in a curious, transitional state at the moment. Officially Keir Starmer is committed to staying as leader and prime minister until the next election. There is no formal leadership contest underway. But, informally, it has already started, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting already setting out their offer to the Labour membership. We will hear more from Streeting this afternoon. But much of the parliamentary party is already working on the basis that a Burnham premiership is all-but-inevitable, and so Streeting’s interventions may turn out to be more about shoring up his position in a potential future Burnham administration than a rehearsal for an election that may never happen.

Here are some of the stories out today covering Starmer, Burnham and Streeting.

Ailbhe Rea in the New Statesman says an insider describes the atmosphere in No 10 now as “very, very odd”. She says:

Starmer and his remaining loyal cabinet ministers want to make every day that they are still in office count, and are determined to cut through the noise of the leadership drama. Many cabinet ministers, who may not survive long in their posts if Starmer is replaced as Prime Minister, are desperate to set a legacy and bank achievements in their briefs while they can. “Let’s get out there and make the case for what we’re doing,” has been Starmer’s message to colleagues. There is even a fleeting hope inside Downing Street that the leadership speculation “burns itself out”, that “Wes and Andy tearing chunks out of each other for weeks might just make Keir look better”. But even many loyalists accept that is wishful thinking. “The writing is on the wall, even if we don’t know exactly what form that takes yet,” one concludes.

Patrick Maguire, Geraldine Scott and Larisa Brown in the Times say Starmer could stay in Downing Street until early next year. They report:

Ministers familiar with Starmer’s thinking say he has no plans to step down before the Labour Party conference in September and is unlikely to relinquish office before Christmas.

They told The State of It, the political podcast from The Times and Sunday Times, that there were still significant obstacles ahead for Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who on Tuesday refused to rule out breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge against tax rises.

Caroline Wheeler in the i says cabinet ministers are already angling for jobs in a Burnham administration. She says:

Senior ministers are preparing visits to Makerfield amid growing expectations in Westminster that Burnham could ultimately take the Labour leadership – and with it the power to appoint the next Cabinet.

“The equation cabinet ministers are making is that if they go and he wins they will get a plum job,” one senior source said. “If they don’t go and he wins, he will remember. And if they don’t go and he loses, he will remember.”

Many now believe that Burnham is lining up to make Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, as his chancellor. It comes as Miliband’s special adviser was seconded to work with Burnham for the by-election campaign …

Burnham is also widely expected to make Lucy Powell, the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, his deputy prime minister. Multiple sources said that other women likely to be given top jobs include Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, and Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary, who is also the co-chair of the influential soft-left Tribune group of MPs.

Sam Blewett at Politico has taken an in-depth look at the team supporting Burnham. He says the key figure is Kevin Lee, director of the Greater Manchester mayor’s office, who has been advising Burnham with little break since 2010.

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Labour must be bolder or it will lose, Streeting says in resignation speech

In first speech since quitting cabinet, Streeting says party must deliver change or it will hand keys of No 10 to Reform

Labour must be bolder and deliver real change, Wes Streeting has said in his first Commons speech since resigning as health secretary, saying that he quit the government because it was “currently losing” the fight against populist nationalism.

Streeting reiterated his view that leaving the EU had been a damaging mistake for the UK, and argued that young people had been let down by a system stacked against them.

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Andy Burnham vows to ‘change Labour’ in direct challenge to Keir Starmer

Expected candidate in Makerfield byelection says party ‘needs to change if we are to regain people’s trust’

Andy Burnham drew the battle lines for the future of the Labour party on Monday as the Greater Manchester mayor promised he would “change Labour” and win back the voters the party had lost.

Burnham, who is expected to be Labour’s candidate in the Makerfield byelection, claimed it would be no ordinary campaign and said he would make it about national issues where Labour was failing, in a direct challenge to the prime minister.

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Starmer is not setting out timetable for his departure, says David Lammy

Deputy PM says Andy Burnham would be ‘great addition to parliament’ but leadership row is an ‘own goal’ for Labour

Keir Starmer is not about to set a timetable for his departure from Downing Street, David Lammy, one of the prime minister’s closest cabinet allies, has said, urging Labour to get beyond the “spectacular own goal” of repeated leadership speculation.

While allies of Starmer have suggested he could be willing to step aside if Andy Burnham wins next month’s Makerfield byelection and no other challenger emerges, Lammy insisted this was not being considered.

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‘An hour of abuse’: Jeremy Corbyn on Labour coups, and whether he feels sorry for Starmer

As Keir Starmer endures a slow ousting as PM, former Labour leader Corbyn recalls his own expulsion and looks at the runners and riders

“Yeah, I do feel [sorry for him],” said Jeremy Corbyn, with only a little hesitation. “On a personal level it must be devastating. It is a horrible feeling. You suddenly realise that this person doesn’t trust you at all and really doesn’t wish you well at all, and you suddenly realise that any trust that was there actually disappears.”

There are few in politics who have had the experience of being the subject of a Labour party-style coup, the British equivalent of being dragged from your office to be put up against a wall. Letters of resignations from so-called political friends, condemnatory statements on social media, all dripped out for maximum effect with the end goal of pushing the target, once the subject of standing ovations and gushing plaudits, out on their tail.

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Senior cabinet ministers join 70 Labour MPs in urging Starmer to step down

Exclusive: Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood believed to be among those telling PM to oversee orderly departure hours after he said he would fight any challenge

Keir Starmer’s grip on power appeared to be slipping away on Monday as cabinet ministers urged him to set out a timetable for his departure and more than 70 Labour MPs publicly called for him to stand down.

The prime minister warned the country would “never forgive” Labour for plunging into the chaos of a leadership election – and that he intended to prove his doubters inside and outside the party wrong.

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Starmer began the day damaged and then things got worse

A growing number of Labour MPs are in no mood to heed calls from the PM’s allies to keep faith with their leader

“Has Keir done enough to survive?” was the question anxious Labour MPs were asking each other throughout Monday, after the speech regarded by many as crucial to Starmer’s chances of political survival.

But the anxiety for many of them, badly bruised by Thursday’s election crushing, did not stem from concern the prime minister might be ousted. But that he would not.

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Starmer faces fight to survive as Streeting and Rayner eye leadership bids

Chances of Starmer remaining in No 10 appear to be diminishing as about 40 Labour MPs call on him to quit

Keir Starmer faces a fight for his political life in the next 24 hours as potential Labour leadership rivals from Wes Streeting to Angela Rayner began to position themselves for a contest.

Starmer is hoping to save his job on Monday with a speech promising to “face up to the big challenges” for the country on growth, energy, defence and Europe.

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GPs and hospitals in England to be required to share data to create single patient records

Wes Streeting says legislation will save lives, but GPs are concerned about liability for errors introduced by other providers

GPs and hospitals will be required to share patient data under legislation to be announced in the king’s speech on Wednesday.

Legislation to create a single patient record (SPR) for each person, which would be used across all healthcare providers, is part of a £10bn digitisation of the health service.

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