Labour has 99% chance of forming next government, says elections expert – UK politics live

Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist and lead election analyst for the BBC, said the chances of a Tory revival were small

In the House of Lords peers have just started debating the second reading of the leasehold and freehold reform bill. The bill has already passed through the Commons.

Normally, at this stage of the process, the content of a government bill is all but finalised. But, as No 10 admitted on Monday, the government has still not decided how far it will go in terms of cutting ground rents for existing leaseholders.

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Tory MP Robert Halfon quits as minister and James Heappey confirms resignation, paving way for mini reshuffle – as it happened

Robert Halfon quits as skills, apprenticeships and higher education minister as James Heappey confirms decision to step down

In interviews this morning Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, admitted that special educational needs provision was in crisis, Ben Quinn reports.

Universities in England could be told to terminate their arrangements with foreign countries if freedom of speech and academic freedom is undermined, the government’s free speech tsar has said. As PA Media reports, Prof Arif Ahmed, director for freedom of speech and academic freedom at the Office for Students (OfS), said many universities and colleges in England have “international arrangements” – including admitting overseas students on scholarships and hosting institutes partly funded by foreign governments. PA says:

The higher education regulator launched a consultation on guidance about freedom of speech, ahead of universities, colleges and student unions taking on new free speech duties.

The guidance includes examples to illustrate what higher education institutions may have to do to fulfil their new duties – due to come into effect in August – to secure freedom of speech within the law.

University A accepts international students on visiting scholarships funded by the government of country B. Scholars must accept the principles of the ruling party of country B, and direction from country B’s government via consular staff. Depending on the circumstances, these arrangements may undermine free speech and academic freedom at University A. If so, that university is likely to have to terminate or amend the scholarship agreement.

If it means that there are people who are employed by an institute who are preventing legitimate protests or shutting down lecturers from covering certain kinds of content regarding that country for instance, or that country’s foreign policy … If that behaviour amounts to a restriction of freedom of speech within the law, and someone brings a complaint to us, then we may find that the complaint is justified and then we make recommendations …

If there are problems, universities will have to do everything they can to act compatibly with their freedom-of-speech duties. Insofar as that means a rethinking of their relationship with other countries, obviously that’s something that would be a good idea for them to start thinking about now.

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Thousands of UK women owed pension payout after ombudsman’s Waspi ruling

The way women’s state pension age was raised plunged retirement plans into chaos with many now in line for compensation

Thousands of women are owed compensation because of government failings related to the way changes to the state pension age were made, a long-awaited official report has said.

The Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman (PHSO) said those affected were owed compensation but added that that Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) had clearly indicated it would “refuse to comply”, which was “unacceptable”.

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Boris Johnson government ‘always hoped’ Northern Ireland protocol would collapse – UK politics live

Lord Frost, Brexit negotiator for former PM, tells House of Lords that government never wanted ‘unsatisfactory’ protocol to work

Rayner says Labour will update trade union laws to make them fit for the 21st century.

The laws affecting union reps and officials do not take into account technological advancements, she says.

First, we will update regulations to outlaw the use of predictive technologies for blacklisting and safeguard against singling out workers for mistreatment or the sack without any evidence of human interaction.

Second, we will act to end the loophole that allows employers to pass the dirty work down to third party contractors, so that any third party found to be carrying out blacklisting can legally be held to account.

The Tories pushed through the 2016 Trade Union Act, preventing fair bargaining and holding back living standards.

And this year they gave us the minimum service levels bill [the Strikes Act] …

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Benefits claimants in UK were underpaid by record £3.3bn last year

National Audit Office criticises Department for Work and Pensions over its ‘material fraud and error’

Thousands of people in the UK could receive a payout after official figures revealed that benefit claimants were underpaid by £3.3bn last year, the highest level on record.

The Department for Work and Pensions also admitted that as many as 330,000 people, some of whom have since died, may have missed out on as much as £1.5bn of valuable state pension entitlement – a disclosure that prompted some commentators to warn of a new scandal. Steve Webb, the former pensions minister, said: “The scale of these errors is huge.”

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Ministers reportedly scrap plan to bring forward rise in UK state pension age

Falling life expectancy and fears of voter unhappiness thought to be behind rethink about increase to 68 late next decade

Ministers have reportedly delayed plans to bring forward a rise in the state pension age amid falling life expectancy in the UK.

The state pension age, which is currently 66, was due to rise to 68 after 2044 but reports earlier this year suggested ministers had planned to bring the increase forward to between 2037 and 2039.

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No 10 declines to say Sunak confident Zahawi has always told him truth about his tax affairs – UK politics live

Downing Street spokesperson also says inquiry into former chancellor’s affairs to be ‘conducted swiftly’

There are two urgent questions in the Commons later. At 12.30pm Caroline Lucas (Green) is asking one about the child asylum seekers who have gone missing from hotel accommodation provided by the Home Office, and that will be followed by Ben Bradshaw (Lab) asking one about the Church of England’s stance on equal marriage.

After those are over Damian Hinds, the justice minister, will deliver a statement about the probation inspectorate.

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Pensions triple lock and benefits in spotlight as Sunak delays fiscal plan

No 10 not committing to keeping triple lock or inflation-linked benefits rise in 17 November statement

Ministers are to re-examine the pensions triple lock and increasing benefits in line with inflation over the next fortnight, according to No 10, after Rishi Sunak delayed the announcement of the government’s fiscal plans from 31 October to 17 November.

The Treasury has said the new date will now be a full autumn statement, with Sunak telling his cabinet that time needed to be made to do things in the proper way.

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Suella Braverman replaced by Grant Shapps; Labour motion calling for fracking ban fails – live

Home secretary departs after sending an official document by personal email but uses resignation letter to criticise PM

Plans to create Great British Railways, a public sector body to oversee Britain’s railways, have been delayed, MPs have been told.

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the transport secretary, told the Commons transport committee that the transport bill, which would have set up the new body, has been delayed because legislation to deal with the energy crisis is being prioritised. She said:

The challenges of things like the energy legislation we’ve got to bring in and various others has meant that we have lost the opportunity to have that [bill] in this third session.

What we are continuing to pitch for will be what I would call a narrow bill around the future of transport technologies, the legislation around things like e-scooters.

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Labour pledges £58bn for women caught in pension trap

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell says party ‘owes debt of honour’ to 3 million over changes in retirement age

More than 3 million women who believe they have been left thousands of pounds out of pocket after steep increases to the state pension age are being promised compensation by Labour as part of a £58bn scheme designed to end a “historic injustice”.

Related: ‘The Tories stole my state pension when I was 60, now I want it back’

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