Category Archives: Autumn statement 2023

How a spring UK budget could fire the starting gun for an early election

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UK economic prospects are bleak but an agenda-setting fiscal event such as sweeping tax cuts in March offers another roll of the dice

To grasp the nettle, or wait in the hope that things somehow miraculously improve. This is the choice Rishi Sunak will be weighing for the next general election, as the Conservatives limp towards the finishing line of another challenging year.

After Jeremy Hunt announced the government would hold an earlier than anticipated budget, with a date set for 6 March, the possibility of a poll in May, in the afterglow of some electioneering tax cuts, is clearly being given considerable thought.

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No bounce for the Tories after tax-cutting budget, poll shows

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Opinium poll for the Observer reveals the public is unimpressed with Jeremy Hunt’s attempt to woo them by trimming national insurance

Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories.

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Rishi Sunak says immigration must fall but declines to say which new measures he backs – as it happened

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Net migration to the UK in 2023 is estimated at 672,000, and the PM says a more ‘sustainable’ level is needed. This live blog is closed

When Nigel Farage was leading the Brexit party, it was considerably influential for a party with no MPs, winning the European elections in 2019 and helping to push the Conservative party into a harder position on Brexit. After the 2019 election it was renamed Reform UK, Richard Tice took over as leader and it became much more marginal. But in an interview on the Today programme this morning Tice claimed that the government’s failure to bring down immigration was presenting it with an opportunity. He told the programme:

The British people voted to control immigration, and the government have betrayed the people’s promises. And that’s why so many thousands of people, former Tory members, are joining us. Our polling numbers – we got record polling last week, four different polls where we’re in double figures. This week, we’ve had Tory donors joining us. Frankly, I fully expect Tory MPs who are furious and angry with the government to be calling me next week.

[Cleverly] has made the point that he says that it was not aimed at a particular place. Knowing James well, he’s not the sort of person, in my opinion, who would have made that kind of remark in that kind of context.

But he has accepted that this was certainly unparliamentary language and he has rightly apologised.

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Scotland ‘let down on every front’ by Hunt’s statement, says SNP government

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Questions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland about funding for devolved governments

The Scottish government has accused the chancellor of “letting Scotland down on every count” after he unveiled a modest £545m increase in Treasury funding, and extra funds for Wales and Northern Ireland.

Jeremy Hunt announced an overall boost of £1bn for the UK’s three devolved governments, with Wales in line to receive an extra £305m and Northern Ireland £185m over the next two financial years, alongside £545m for Scotland.

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Autumn statement live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance as OBR downgrades UK growth forecast

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Chancellor cuts employee national insurance to 10% while abolishing class 2 national insurance

Keir Starmer has said that a pause in hostilities between Israel and Hamas must be used to tackle the “urgent and unacceptable humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza.

Welcoming the deal, which is expected to involve the release of 50 hostages being held by Hamas and a number of women and teenagers from Israeli jails, the Labour leader said his party had been calling for “a substantial humanitarian pause”. He said:

There must be immediate access to aid, food, water, fuel and medicine to ensure hospitals function and lives are saved. Aid and fuel need to not just get in but be distributed widely and safely.

We must also use the space this pause creates to take more steps on a path towards a full cessation of hostilities rather than an escalation of violence.

The real function of the projected spending squeeze is as a trap for Labour. If the opposition rejects the Tory trajectory, it will be accused of planning a profligate spree with public money. And if it pledges adherence to impossible targets, it will enter government with its hands bound too tight to deliver prompt satisfaction to the people who voted for it.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have so far operated a sensible policy of not walking into traps of this kind. That approach restored swing voters’ trust in Labour as stewards of the economy. But it tests the patience of an activist base that sees reversal of austerity as a moral imperative and can smell the incipient disappointment in promises of fiscal discipline.

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OBR halves UK growth forecast and warns inflation will exceed 2% target until 2025

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Despite £27bn windfall for the autumn statement, government forecaster warns of generally more difficult outlook until 2028

The government’s official forecaster has slashed its predictions for economic growth over the next two years, and warned that inflation could take until 2025 to come back to the official 2% target.

In an updated financial health check to accompany the autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said a more resilient economy this year had handed the chancellor a £27bn budget windfall, but it warned of a more difficult outlook up to 2028 than previously forecast at the time of the budget in March.

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Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt looks to cut UK taxes and ‘turbo-charge growth’

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Amid less gloomy OBR forecasts the chancellor is expected to take first steps towards cutting personal taxes

Jeremy Hunt will announce 110 measures to boost Britain’s stagnant economy and bow to demands from anxious Tory MPs for tax cuts when he delivers his second autumn statement on Wednesday.

In one of the last set-piece economic events before the general election, the chancellor will pledge to “turbo charge” growth while taking the first steps to cut personal taxes after recent sharp increases.

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UK borrows less than expected this year as Hunt lines up giveaways

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Chancellor says bringing down inflation remains one of his main aims as he prepares autumn statement

The UK government borrowed less than expected in the first seven months of the financial year as Jeremy Hunt puts the last-minute touches to a series of pre-election giveaways in his autumn statement on Wednesday.

Public sector borrowing between April and October was just above £98bn, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and while this was £22bn higher than in the same period last year, it was almost £17bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in March.

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Boris Johnson ‘bamboozled’ by science and Matt Hancock had habit of saying things that were untrue, UK Covid inquiry hears – live

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Former chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance revealed there was ‘complete lack of leadership’ at times in crisis

Vallance says that some of what he was doing during Covid would have been done by anyone else in the post of government chief scientific adviser (GCSA).

But he says because of his medical training, and his knowledge of vaccines (he had worked for GlaxoSmithKline before taking the GCSA job), he was probably more involved than another GCSA might have been.

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Sunak says he will cut taxes ‘over time’ as he reveals new economic priorities

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PM signals that business tax cuts more likely than personal ones as he sets out ‘next phase’ of government’s economic plan

Rishi Sunak has hinted at business tax cuts to boost economic growth as he promised to reduce the tax burden “carefully and sustainably” and “over time”.

In a speech on Monday the prime minister declined to give any specifics before the autumn statement, but stressed the focus was “very much the supply side” of the economy in a signal that business tax cuts are more likely than personal ones.

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Tax corporate polluters and rich to help tackle climate crisis, Jeremy Hunt told

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In letter to Guardian, campaigners say billions could be raised to help finance decarbonisation

Jeremy Hunt has been warned that combating the climate emergency will require higher taxes on wealth and big corporate polluters at the autumn statement rather than a package of giveaways for the rich.

In the run-up to the chancellor’s speech to the Commons on Wednesday, a group of 19 leading charities and campaigners – including Greenpeace, Christian Aid and Patriotic Millionaires UK – said billions of pounds could be raised to help finance decarbonisation.

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UK needs more lab space if it wants to be science superpower, ministers told

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Leading property firms also call for more tax breaks and improved transport links to hubs ahead of autumn statement

The UK needs to build more laboratory space, improve transport links and offer more tax breaks to achieve Rishi Sunak’s ambition of becoming a science superpower, two leading property firms have argued ahead of the autumn statement.

Demand for laboratories in the UK is growing fast, with lab vacancy rates of just 1% in Cambridge and London, and 7% in Oxford, according to a report by British Land, one of Britain’s biggest property developers, and the upmarket estate agency and advisory firm Savills.

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Soaring special needs school transport costs ‘unsustainable’, say councils

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Local authorities fear service cuts or even bankruptcy as costs jump from £400m to £700m in five years

Soaring costs of school transport for children with special educational needs is causing councils in England to warn of service cuts and potential insolvency, according to local authority leaders.

The County Council Network (CCN), which represents mainly rural local authorities in England, says its 37 members are spending more than £700m a year on school transport for 85,000 children with special education needs and disabilities (Send), compared with less than £400m five years ago.

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Hunt urged to invest £30bn a year in infrastructure or risk ‘decade in doldrums’

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Thinktank says stronger than expected tax revenues have given chancellor scope for bold package in autumn statement

Jeremy Hunt risks condemning Britain to a decade in the doldrums unless he uses this month’s autumn statement to announce a £30bn-a-year investment plan to upgrade public infrastructure, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the chancellor should ignore calls by Tory MPs for pre-election tax cuts and instead focus on measures to boost growth through improvements to transport, digital networks, skills and housing.

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Tories have no room for tax cuts despite £52bn a year stealth rise, says IFS

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UK stuck between weak economic growth and risk of persistently high inflation, says thinktank

The government has no room for unfunded pre-election tax cuts despite having pushed through a “colossal” £52bn a year stealth raid on household incomes on Rishi Sunak’s watch, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned.

Britain’s foremost economics thinktank said the dire state of the public finances meant that attention-grabbing tax cuts risked stoking inflation, leading to higher Bank of England interest rates and a lengthy recession.

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