Category Archives: Nuclear weapons

Tuesday briefing: What it might take for lasting peace between the US and Iran

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In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on whether permanent peace is possible – or whether there will be a new escalation in the conflict

Good morning. The Gulf is stuck in limbo between war and peace. Despite a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, both sides have ramped up threats once again. A lasting end to the violence feels possible, but so does a renewed round of fighting – and more death, destruction and economic pain.

JD Vance, the US vice-president, is expected to fly to Pakistan today if Iran agrees to further talks on ending the conflict. Tehran has given mixed signals about whether they will attend and, at time of writing, it remainds unclear. Meanwhile, time is ticking away on the current two-week ceasefire, which runs out in less than 48 hours.

Iran war | JD Vance was expected to fly to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.

UK politics | Keir Starmer has accused Olly Robbins of deliberately and repeatedly obstructing the truth about the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal before a high-jeopardy appearance of the sacked top official before MPs on Tuesday.

Health | Changes to microbes that live in the gut can identify people at greater risk of Parkinson’s disease long before symptoms develop, according to work that also raises hopes for new therapies.

Economy | A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession”, analysis suggests, after business confidence was shattered by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Technology | Apple announced on Monday that it had named a replacement for Tim Cook as CEO after nearly 15 years, with head of hardware engineering John Ternus succeeding him on 1 September. Cook will stay at the company in the role of executive chair.

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North Korea rapidly expanding nuclear weapons capability, UN watchdog warns

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Pyongyang making ‘very serious’ progress on producing weapons, with rapid rise in activity at main nuclear complex

North Korea has made “very serious” progress in its ability to produce more nuclear weapons, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog has said, in another sign that the regime is seeking to use its nuclear arsenal to ensure its survival.

North Korea is thought to have assembled about 50 nuclear warheads, although some experts are sceptical of its claims that it is able to miniaturise them so they can be attached to long-range ballistic missiles.

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Iran hits Israeli town housing nuclear facility in retaliation for Natanz strike

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First responders report 33 injured at multiple sites in Dimona, including a 10-year-old boy in serious condition

An Iranian missile has hit the Israeli town of Dimona, home to a nuclear facility, in what Iran said was retaliation for strikes on its own nuclear site at Natanz.

Dimona hosts a facility just outside the main town widely believed to possess the Middle East’s sole nuclear arsenal, although Israel has never admitted to possessing nuclear weapons.

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Two people arrested after trying to enter UK nuclear submarine base

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Man and woman, one of whom is understood to be Iranian, held after asking to enter sensitive military site

Two people have been arrested, one of whom is understood to be Iranian, after they tried to enter the Faslane nuclear submarine base in Scotland in what may have been an attempt at espionage.

A man, 34, and a woman, 31, were detained by Police Scotland after they had asked to enter one of Britain’s most sensitive military sites late on Thursday afternoon. The base is home to the UK’s Trident submarines and not open to the public.

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US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say

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Tehran has enough material to make at least 10 nuclear warheads but extracting it would be very risky, say experts

The Trump administration is reportedly considering the deployment of special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which experts say could be used to make at least 10 nuclear warheads.

Preventing Iran from acquiring a bomb is one of Trump’s stated war aims, and the 440kg HEU stockpile represents the greatest nuclear threat as it could be turned into weapons-grade uranium relatively easily. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has told Congress that “people are going to have to go and get it”.

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Trump’s Iran war will reinforce North Korea’s view that nuclear weapons are the only path to security

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As speculation mounts that Kim Jong-un and Trump could meet this month, analysts say Pyongyang will continue to see nuclear weapons as a matter of survival

North Korea’s launch last week of a missile from a naval destroyer elicited an uncharacteristically prosaic analysis from the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un. The launch was proof, he said, that arming ships with nuclear weapons was “making satisfactory progress”.

But the test, and Kim’s mildly upbeat appraisal, were designed to reverberate well beyond the deck of the 5,000-tonne destroyer-class vessel the Choe Hyon – the biggest warship in the North Korean fleet.

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France to increase nuclear arsenal and European weapons cooperation, Macron says

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French president says Paris could deploy nuclear-capable fighter jets to countries such as Germany and Poland

France will increase the size of its nuclear arsenal for the first time in decades and significantly intensify nuclear weapons cooperation with eight European allies including the UK as part of a “major” strengthening of its deterrence doctrine, Emmanuel Macron has said.

Amid growing concern among European leaders about wavering US commitments to help defend the continent, the French president said on Monday that Paris could deploy nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets to partner countries such as Germany and Poland.

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Trump advisers scramble to justify US military intervention in Iran

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Tehran’s ICBMs cannot currently reach the US, experts say, and White House has claimed its nuclear programme has been destroyed

Donald Trump’s likely casus belli for an attack on Iran – which would be the largest US intervention since the Iraq war – is fraught with contradictions, and his top advisers have been left to cover for him as the White House makes the case for intervention.

In his State of the Union address this week, Trump alleged that Iran posed a direct threat to the US and that the country was “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America”. But that claim has not been backed up with evidence by the White House or the Pentagon, and US intelligence reports from just last year say that it would take Iran 10 years to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US.

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US accuses China of ‘massively’ expanding nuclear arsenal amid fears of new arms race

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China has opposed the ‘smearing of its nuclear policy’ while insisting Beijing would not ‘engage in any nuclear arms race’

The US has accused China of dramatically expanding its nuclear arsenal, while doubling down on claims that Beijing had conducted secret nuclear tests.

Washington said the lapsing of New Start – the last treaty between top nuclear powers the US and Russia – earlier this month presented the possibility of striking a “better agreement” that included Beijing.

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Iran willing to dilute uranium stockpile as fresh protests erupt

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Proposal will be at heart of offer to US as Trump considers whether to attack Iran

Iran is refusing to export its 300kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but is willing to dilute the purity of the stockpile it holds under the supervision of UN nuclear inspectorate the IAEA, Iranian sources have said.

The proposal will be at the heart of the offer Iran is due to make to the US in the next few days, as the US president, Donald Trump, weighs whether to use his vast naval buildup in the Middle East to attack the country.

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Iran prepares nuclear counterproposal as US considers limited military strikes

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Trump orders massive buildup of naval forces in Middle East, leading to fears of an imminent war

Iran’s foreign minister has said he expects to have a draft counterproposal ready within days after nuclear talks with the US this week, while Donald Trump said he was considering limited military strikes.

The US president has ordered a massive buildup of naval forces in the Middle East, including repositioning aircraft carriers and other warships, leading to fears of an imminent war. But it is not clear if the military movements are intended as an intimidation tactic to put pressure on Iran to make concessions on its nuclear programme.

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Iran says it could rejoin US nuclear talks if treated with ‘dignity and respect’

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Iran’s foreign minister says it has had requests to reopen negotiations, which collapsed after nuclear site bombings

Tehran is willing to restart nuclear talks with Washington as long as it is treated with “dignity and respect”, Iran’s foreign minister has told the Guardian.

Abbas Araghchi said only diplomacy worked, and disclosed fresh requests had come from intermediaries to reopen negotiations with the Trump administration. He said Iran did not have any undeclared nuclear sites, and Tehran could not yet allow the UN nuclear inspectorate to visit bombed nuclear sites for security reasons.

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Russian forces appear to tighten grip on strategic city of Pokrovsk

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Military analysts say situation in Pokrovsk has deteriorated, while Kremlin says it plans to explore resumption of nuclear testing

Moscow’s forces appear to be tightening their grip on Pokrovsk, with street fighting raging across the ruined city in eastern Ukraine, as the Kremlin announced plans to explore the resumption of nuclear testing.

Ukraine’s general staff on Wednesday denied Russian claims that its troops had been encircled, saying efforts were under way to reinforce the flanks around Pokrovsk and the nearby town of Myrnohrad.

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House of Dynamite writer ‘respectfully disagrees’ with Pentagon’s complaints about nuclear missile thriller

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Noah Oppenheim responded to complaints from the Pentagon over the accuracy of the film’s depiction of the US’s defence systems

Warning: contains a spoiler for the plot of House of Dynamite

Noah Oppenheim, the writer of Kathryn Bigelow’s nuclear-missile thriller House of Dynamite has responded to complaints from the Pentagon over the accuracy of its depiction of the US’s defence systems, saying he “respectfully disagree[s]”.

In an internal memo dated 16 October obtained by Bloomberg, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) said: “The fictional interceptors in the movie miss their target and we understand this is intended to be a compelling part of the drama intended for the entertainment of the audience,” but results from real-world testing “tell a vastly different story.”

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Iran angry as sweeping UN sanctions take effect after failure of nuclear talks

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Foreign ministry attacks ‘unjustifiable’ return of measures expected to have wide effects on troubled economy

Widespread UN sanctions against Iran have come back into force for the first time in a decade, prompting anger from Tehran, after last-ditch nuclear talks with western powers failed to produce a breakthrough.

The sanctions, which came into effect late on Saturday and three months after Israel and the US bombed Iran, bar dealings related to Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programme and are also expected to have wider effects on the country’s troubled economy.

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Iran snapback sanctions loom as UN security council set to vote on nuclear programme

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Russian efforts to delay the return of sanctions is expected to fail during vote on Friday

A final Russian attempt to defer the snapback of large-scale UN sanctions on Iran is expected to fail at the UN security council on Friday after European countries rejected last-minute Iranian offers to give UN weapons inspectors limited access to its bombed nuclear sites.

Russia will call for the reimposition of the sanctions to be deferred for six months to give more time for diplomacy, but European diplomats are confident that Russia will not get the nine votes it needs on the security council for the snapback to be deferred. The last time Russia put the same issue to a vote it received only four votes.

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Fighter jets purchase would put UK in breach of nuclear treaty, says CND

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Legal opinion for campaign group says deal amounts to reversal of UK’s commitment to nuclear disarmament

Britain will violate its nuclear disarmament obligations if Labour presses ahead with the £1bn purchase of 12 F-35A fighter jets, according to a specialist legal opinion prepared on behalf of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND).

Two international lawyers argue that the government’s plan to reintroduce air-launched nuclear weapons for the RAF will break a key provision of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) signed by the UK and 190 other countries.

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Iran’s foreign minister meets with UN nuclear watchdog in bid to avert sanctions

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Abbas Araghchi will likely also meet with European officials, as window for reaching an agreement narrows

Iran’s foreign minister has met the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog at the start of a frantic round of diplomatic meetings in New York in a bid to avert the reimposition of a wave of UN sanctions on Iran starting on Sunday.

The crisis could rapidly spiral into fresh Israeli calls to attack Iran for failing to cooperate over its nuclear programme. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, warned on Monday: “We must destroy the axis of evil Iran and we have the power to do so. This is what lies ahead of us in the coming year, a year that could be a historic one for Israel’s security.”

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UN security council fails to prevent ‘snapback’ nuclear sanctions on Iran

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Iranian foreign ministry urges further diplomacy and says return to pre-2015 measures are unlawful and unfounded

The UN security council failed to pass a resolution on Friday that would have prevented the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme before the deadline for the “snapping back” of punitive measures.

UN sanctions on Iran will be re-established at the end of the month unless the nine-member security council agrees to further extend sanctions relief. Friday’s resolution, put forth by South Korea, received support from only four countries – China, Russia, Pakistan and Algeria.

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Iran will exchange nuclear monitoring for lifted sanctions, says its foreign minister

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Seyyed Abbas Araghchi says European nations should engage constructively and not facilitate ‘America’s excesses’

Iran is ready to form a real and lasting agreement that includes strict monitoring and limits on its domestic uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, its foreign minister, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, has said.

But, writing for the Guardian, he urges the European nations to change course and abandon their plan to snapback a wide array of UN sanctions at the end of the month.

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