France to increase nuclear arsenal and European weapons cooperation, Macron says

French president says Paris could deploy nuclear-capable fighter jets to countries such as Germany and Poland

France will increase the size of its nuclear arsenal for the first time in decades and significantly intensify nuclear weapons cooperation with eight European allies including the UK as part of a “major” strengthening of its deterrence doctrine, Emmanuel Macron has said.

Amid growing concern among European leaders about wavering US commitments to help defend the continent, the French president said on Monday that Paris could deploy nuclear-capable Rafale fighter jets to partner countries such as Germany and Poland.

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Trump advisers scramble to justify US military intervention in Iran

Tehran’s ICBMs cannot currently reach the US, experts say, and White House has claimed its nuclear programme has been destroyed

Donald Trump’s likely casus belli for an attack on Iran – which would be the largest US intervention since the Iraq war – is fraught with contradictions, and his top advisers have been left to cover for him as the White House makes the case for intervention.

In his State of the Union address this week, Trump alleged that Iran posed a direct threat to the US and that the country was “working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America”. But that claim has not been backed up with evidence by the White House or the Pentagon, and US intelligence reports from just last year say that it would take Iran 10 years to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the US.

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US accuses China of ‘massively’ expanding nuclear arsenal amid fears of new arms race

China has opposed the ‘smearing of its nuclear policy’ while insisting Beijing would not ‘engage in any nuclear arms race’

The US has accused China of dramatically expanding its nuclear arsenal, while doubling down on claims that Beijing had conducted secret nuclear tests.

Washington said the lapsing of New Start – the last treaty between top nuclear powers the US and Russia – earlier this month presented the possibility of striking a “better agreement” that included Beijing.

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Iran willing to dilute uranium stockpile as fresh protests erupt

Proposal will be at heart of offer to US as Trump considers whether to attack Iran

Iran is refusing to export its 300kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but is willing to dilute the purity of the stockpile it holds under the supervision of UN nuclear inspectorate the IAEA, Iranian sources have said.

The proposal will be at the heart of the offer Iran is due to make to the US in the next few days, as the US president, Donald Trump, weighs whether to use his vast naval buildup in the Middle East to attack the country.

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Iran prepares nuclear counterproposal as US considers limited military strikes

Trump orders massive buildup of naval forces in Middle East, leading to fears of an imminent war

Iran’s foreign minister has said he expects to have a draft counterproposal ready within days after nuclear talks with the US this week, while Donald Trump said he was considering limited military strikes.

The US president has ordered a massive buildup of naval forces in the Middle East, including repositioning aircraft carriers and other warships, leading to fears of an imminent war. But it is not clear if the military movements are intended as an intimidation tactic to put pressure on Iran to make concessions on its nuclear programme.

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Iran says it could rejoin US nuclear talks if treated with ‘dignity and respect’

Iran’s foreign minister says it has had requests to reopen negotiations, which collapsed after nuclear site bombings

Tehran is willing to restart nuclear talks with Washington as long as it is treated with “dignity and respect”, Iran’s foreign minister has told the Guardian.

Abbas Araghchi said only diplomacy worked, and disclosed fresh requests had come from intermediaries to reopen negotiations with the Trump administration. He said Iran did not have any undeclared nuclear sites, and Tehran could not yet allow the UN nuclear inspectorate to visit bombed nuclear sites for security reasons.

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Russian forces appear to tighten grip on strategic city of Pokrovsk

Military analysts say situation in Pokrovsk has deteriorated, while Kremlin says it plans to explore resumption of nuclear testing

Moscow’s forces appear to be tightening their grip on Pokrovsk, with street fighting raging across the ruined city in eastern Ukraine, as the Kremlin announced plans to explore the resumption of nuclear testing.

Ukraine’s general staff on Wednesday denied Russian claims that its troops had been encircled, saying efforts were under way to reinforce the flanks around Pokrovsk and the nearby town of Myrnohrad.

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House of Dynamite writer ‘respectfully disagrees’ with Pentagon’s complaints about nuclear missile thriller

Noah Oppenheim responded to complaints from the Pentagon over the accuracy of the film’s depiction of the US’s defence systems

Warning: contains a spoiler for the plot of House of Dynamite

Noah Oppenheim, the writer of Kathryn Bigelow’s nuclear-missile thriller House of Dynamite has responded to complaints from the Pentagon over the accuracy of its depiction of the US’s defence systems, saying he “respectfully disagree[s]”.

In an internal memo dated 16 October obtained by Bloomberg, the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) said: “The fictional interceptors in the movie miss their target and we understand this is intended to be a compelling part of the drama intended for the entertainment of the audience,” but results from real-world testing “tell a vastly different story.”

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Iran angry as sweeping UN sanctions take effect after failure of nuclear talks

Foreign ministry attacks ‘unjustifiable’ return of measures expected to have wide effects on troubled economy

Widespread UN sanctions against Iran have come back into force for the first time in a decade, prompting anger from Tehran, after last-ditch nuclear talks with western powers failed to produce a breakthrough.

The sanctions, which came into effect late on Saturday and three months after Israel and the US bombed Iran, bar dealings related to Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programme and are also expected to have wider effects on the country’s troubled economy.

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Iran snapback sanctions loom as UN security council set to vote on nuclear programme

Russian efforts to delay the return of sanctions is expected to fail during vote on Friday

A final Russian attempt to defer the snapback of large-scale UN sanctions on Iran is expected to fail at the UN security council on Friday after European countries rejected last-minute Iranian offers to give UN weapons inspectors limited access to its bombed nuclear sites.

Russia will call for the reimposition of the sanctions to be deferred for six months to give more time for diplomacy, but European diplomats are confident that Russia will not get the nine votes it needs on the security council for the snapback to be deferred. The last time Russia put the same issue to a vote it received only four votes.

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Fighter jets purchase would put UK in breach of nuclear treaty, says CND

Legal opinion for campaign group says deal amounts to reversal of UK’s commitment to nuclear disarmament

Britain will violate its nuclear disarmament obligations if Labour presses ahead with the £1bn purchase of 12 F-35A fighter jets, according to a specialist legal opinion prepared on behalf of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND).

Two international lawyers argue that the government’s plan to reintroduce air-launched nuclear weapons for the RAF will break a key provision of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) signed by the UK and 190 other countries.

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Iran’s foreign minister meets with UN nuclear watchdog in bid to avert sanctions

Abbas Araghchi will likely also meet with European officials, as window for reaching an agreement narrows

Iran’s foreign minister has met the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog at the start of a frantic round of diplomatic meetings in New York in a bid to avert the reimposition of a wave of UN sanctions on Iran starting on Sunday.

The crisis could rapidly spiral into fresh Israeli calls to attack Iran for failing to cooperate over its nuclear programme. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, warned on Monday: “We must destroy the axis of evil Iran and we have the power to do so. This is what lies ahead of us in the coming year, a year that could be a historic one for Israel’s security.”

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UN security council fails to prevent ‘snapback’ nuclear sanctions on Iran

Iranian foreign ministry urges further diplomacy and says return to pre-2015 measures are unlawful and unfounded

The UN security council failed to pass a resolution on Friday that would have prevented the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme before the deadline for the “snapping back” of punitive measures.

UN sanctions on Iran will be re-established at the end of the month unless the nine-member security council agrees to further extend sanctions relief. Friday’s resolution, put forth by South Korea, received support from only four countries – China, Russia, Pakistan and Algeria.

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Iran will exchange nuclear monitoring for lifted sanctions, says its foreign minister

Seyyed Abbas Araghchi says European nations should engage constructively and not facilitate ‘America’s excesses’

Iran is ready to form a real and lasting agreement that includes strict monitoring and limits on its domestic uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, its foreign minister, Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, has said.

But, writing for the Guardian, he urges the European nations to change course and abandon their plan to snapback a wide array of UN sanctions at the end of the month.

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Nagasaki’s twin bells ring in unison for first time in 80 years to mark atomic bombing

Mayor of Japanese city used the anniversary of US bombing to urge the world to stop armed conflicts, warning nuclear war was ‘looming’ over everyone

Twin cathedral bells rang in unison in Nagasaki for the first time in 80 years on Saturday, commemorating the moment the city was destroyed by an American atomic bomb.

The two bells rang out at Immaculate Conception cathedral, also called the Urakami cathedral, at 11.02am, the moment the bomb was dropped on 9 August 1945, three days after a nuclear attack on Hiroshima.

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Hiroshima anniversary: mayor says Ukraine and Middle East crises show world ignoring nuclear ‘tragedies’

On 80th anniversary of atomic bombing, Kazumi Matsui urges younger people to recognise ‘inhumane’ consequences of nuclear weapons as a deterrent

The mayor of Hiroshima has led calls for the world’s most powerful countries to abandon nuclear deterrence, at a ceremony to mark 80 years since the city was destroyed by an American atomic bomb.

As residents, survivors and representatives from 120 countries gathered at the city’s peace memorial park on Wednesday morning, Kazumi Matsui warned that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East had contributed to a growing acceptance of nuclear weapons.

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Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russia president’s menacing tweet

Order comes after president’s anger at tweet from Dmitry Medvedev which called Trump’s threat to sanction Russia over Ukraine a ‘step towards war’

Donald Trump has said that he has deployed nuclear-capable submarines to the “appropriate regions” in response to a threatening tweet by Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev, suggesting that he would be ready to launch a nuclear strike as tensions rise over the war in Ukraine.

In a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump wrote that he had decided to reposition the nuclear submarines because of “highly provocative statements” by Medvedev, noting he was now the deputy chairman of Russia’s security council.

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Europe is scrambling to form a united front and regain relevance in the Iran crisis

Tehran now places little faith in the European countries who played a key role in brokering the Iranian nuclear deal

Exposed as divided and marginalised during the Iran crisis, European nations are scrambling to retrieve a place at the Middle East negotiating table, fearing an impulsive Donald Trump has diminishing interest in stabilising Iran or the wider region now he believes he has achieved his key objective of wiping out Tehran’s nuclear programme.

On Tuesday the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, was the latest senior European figure to phone the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, offering to be a facilitator and urging Tehran not to leave the crisis in a dangerous limbo by keeping UN weapons inspectors out of Iran.

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Tuesday briefing: How weakened is Iran after Operation Midnight Hammer – and where might it go from here?

In today’s newsletter: With its nuclear capabilities down but not out and domestic support strong, the question is where Iran goes next

Good morning. The term “cakeism” – the false belief that one can simultaneously enjoy the benefits of two mutually exclusive choices – may forever be associated with the Brexit negotiations, when keeping the advantages of EU membership while also shedding its costs became the UK’s official bargaining position.

But the appeal of cakeism endures, and over the last week the US president’s approach to the conflict with Iran has started to look distinctly gateau-shaped. Donald Trump wants the glory of a decisive victory on the battlefield but is not so keen on the long-term repercussions that come with it: tit-for-tat retaliations, unforeseeable conflict spillage, focused diplomacy, or even regime change – the kind of talk the Maga movement associates with Trump’s predecessors.

Welfare | Downing Street’s plans to see off a major Labour welfare rebellion were in chaos on Monday night, amid continued brinkmanship between MPs and the government over the scale of the concessions. There was significant division between government departments over how to respond to rebels’ demands ahead of the knife-edge vote on Tuesday.

UK news | Police have formally opened a criminal investigation into comments made by Bob Vylan and Kneecap at Glastonbury after reviewing video and audio footage of the performances. Meanwhile on Monday, the BBC said that it should not have allowed chants of “Death to the IDF” at Bob Vylan’s performance to be broadcast.

Crown Estate | King Charles is set to receive official annual income of £132m next year, after his portfolio of land and property made more than £1bn in profits thanks to a boom in the offshore wind sector.

Arms trade | Britain’s decision to allow the export of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel, despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza, was lawful, London’s high court has ruled. The judges ruled that the “acutely sensitive and political issue” was “a matter for the executive … not for the courts”.

Crime | A 92-year-old man who evaded justice for almost 60 years has been convicted of raping and murdering a woman in Bristol, after a review by a cold case police team and scientists. Officers believe the 58-year gap between the crime and the conviction may be the biggest in modern English policing history.

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Trump and Hegseth admit doubts about level of damage to Iran nuclear sites

President calls intelligence ‘inconclusive’, while defence secretary describes harm to facilities as ‘moderate to severe’

Donald Trump and the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, have admitted to some doubt over the scale of the damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear sites by the US bombing at the weekend, after a leaked Pentagon assessment said the Iranian programme had been set back by only a few months.

“The intelligence was very inconclusive,” Trump told journalists at a Nato summit in The Hague, introducing an element of uncertainty for the first time after several days of emphatic declarations that the destruction had been total. “The intelligence says we don’t know. It could’ve been very severe. That’s what the intelligence suggests.”

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