In today’s newsletter: As political tensions rise abroad and economic pressures mount at home, ​D​onald Trump faces a shifting landscape that is testing the loyalty of his ​M​aga supporters

Good morning. Starting a war of choice that is rapidly spiralling out of control, poll ratings at a second-term low, and a cost of living crisis intensifying for millions.

Any conventional US president would be in big trouble. But Donald Trump is not a conventional president, and normal rules do not seem to apply to him. More than a third of Americans continue to believe he is doing a good job despite the global chaos he has unleashed.

UK politics | Keir Starmer was looking increasingly isolated over the Peter Mandelson scandal as the Guardian learned of concerns around the cabinet table, a senior minister refused to say the dismissal of Olly Robbins was fair and several mandarins called for Robbins to be reinstated. One Labour MP called on Starmer to quit.

Middle East | Iranian forces seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.

West Bank | Two Palestinians, including a 14-year-old schoolboy, were killed in the occupied West Bank after Israeli settlers opened fire near a school, witnesses and local officials said. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed a journalist after rescuers were blocked from accessing the building where she was buried under rubble because of further Israeli fire, according to several witnesses.

UK news | Britain’s high military dependence on the US is “no longer tenable” and the UK has to become increasingly independent of the special relationship, a former Nato chief has said.

Palantir | The Metropolitan police has held talks with Palantir that could lead to the London force buying the US spy-tech company’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis for criminal investigations.