Thursday briefing: ​Why the US president is losing support from crucial allies

In today’s newsletter: As political tensions rise abroad and economic pressures mount at home, ​D​onald Trump faces a shifting landscape that is testing the loyalty of his ​M​aga supporters

Good morning. Starting a war of choice that is rapidly spiralling out of control, poll ratings at a second-term low, and a cost of living crisis intensifying for millions.

Any conventional US president would be in big trouble. But Donald Trump is not a conventional president, and normal rules do not seem to apply to him. More than a third of Americans continue to believe he is doing a good job despite the global chaos he has unleashed.

UK politics | Keir Starmer was looking increasingly isolated over the Peter Mandelson scandal as the Guardian learned of concerns around the cabinet table, a senior minister refused to say the dismissal of Olly Robbins was fair and several mandarins called for Robbins to be reinstated. One Labour MP called on Starmer to quit.

Middle East | Iranian forces seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.

West Bank | Two Palestinians, including a 14-year-old schoolboy, were killed in the occupied West Bank after Israeli settlers opened fire near a school, witnesses and local officials said. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed a journalist after rescuers were blocked from accessing the building where she was buried under rubble because of further Israeli fire, according to several witnesses.

UK news | Britain’s high military dependence on the US is “no longer tenable” and the UK has to become increasingly independent of the special relationship, a former Nato chief has said.

Palantir | The Metropolitan police has held talks with Palantir that could lead to the London force buying the US spy-tech company’s AI technology to automate intelligence analysis for criminal investigations.

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‘Impossible’ to reopen strait of Hormuz amid ‘flagrant’ ceasefire breaches, Iran says

Iranian forces seize two ships in critical waterway as Washington and Tehran maintain separate blockades

Iranian forces have seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.

The standoff over the strait – through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied fossil gas passed through during peacetime – has raised doubts about whether stalled peace negotiations will resume.

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White House close to deal of up to $500m to rescue ailing Spirit Airlines

Rising costs have continued to plague the company, now facing soaring fuel costs due to the war with Iran

The White House is finalizing a financing package to help ailing US budget carrier Spirit Airlines, which could receive as much as $500m in loans as rising costs continue to plague the company.

News of the potential deal comes as Spirit and others struggle with soaring fuel costs due to the war with Iran.

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Strait of Hormuz is hosting gunboat diplomacy as US and Iran vie for most effective blockade

Iran’s goal is to maintain chokehold on the global economy, even as some say it could run out of oil storage by Sunday

Donald Trump’s indefinite shelving of the plan to bomb Iran’s bridges and power stations on Tuesday night is being widely described as leaving the conflict in limbo, but that is anything but the truth.

Pakistan insists the prospect of talks in Islamabad has not evaporated, and positive messages are still being exchanged, but in the meantime the site of kinetic activity has switched from land to sea.

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Condom prices could rise 30% due to Iran war, says world’s top producer Karex

Karex produces more than 5 billion condoms annually and is a supplier to leading brands like Durex and Trojan, as well as the NHS

The world’s top condom producer, Malaysia’s Karex Bhd, plans to raise prices by 20% to 30% and possibly further if supply chain disruptions drag on due to the Iran war, its chief executive has said.

Karex is also seeing a surge in condom demand as rising freight costs and shipping delays have left many of its customers with lower stockpiles than usual, CEO Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran claims it has ‘new cards for battlefield’, and weighs talks in Pakistan

Iranian official stresses no decision made on taking part, as US vice-president JD Vance is set to travel to Islamabad for negotiations

Iran’s armed forces are ready to deliver an “immediate and decisive response” to any renewed hostile action by its adversaries, Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, was quoted by the Tasnim news agency as having said.

He said Tehran had the upper hand militarily, including in the management of the strait of Hormuz, and would not allow Donald Trump to “create false narratives over the situation on the ground.”

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Tuesday briefing: What it might take for lasting peace between the US and Iran

In today’s newsletter: Our diplomatic editor on whether permanent peace is possible – or whether there will be a new escalation in the conflict

Good morning. The Gulf is stuck in limbo between war and peace. Despite a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, both sides have ramped up threats once again. A lasting end to the violence feels possible, but so does a renewed round of fighting – and more death, destruction and economic pain.

JD Vance, the US vice-president, is expected to fly to Pakistan today if Iran agrees to further talks on ending the conflict. Tehran has given mixed signals about whether they will attend and, at time of writing, it remainds unclear. Meanwhile, time is ticking away on the current two-week ceasefire, which runs out in less than 48 hours.

Iran war | JD Vance was expected to fly to Islamabad at the head of a US diplomatic delegation on Tuesday if Iran agrees to further talks in the Pakistani capital as the deadline for the current ceasefire looms.

UK politics | Keir Starmer has accused Olly Robbins of deliberately and repeatedly obstructing the truth about the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal before a high-jeopardy appearance of the sacked top official before MPs on Tuesday.

Health | Changes to microbes that live in the gut can identify people at greater risk of Parkinson’s disease long before symptoms develop, according to work that also raises hopes for new therapies.

Economy | A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession”, analysis suggests, after business confidence was shattered by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Technology | Apple announced on Monday that it had named a replacement for Tim Cook as CEO after nearly 15 years, with head of hardware engineering John Ternus succeeding him on 1 September. Cook will stay at the company in the role of executive chair.

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US urges contractor to evacuate workers from Kuwait and Iraq over worries of Iran-backed attacks

After Guardian reports about danger to V2X employees, sources say state department raised concerns with defense contractor

The US government has called on the defense contractor V2X to evacuate its employees from Kuwait and Iraq, warning the company that they could be targeted by Iran-backed militias, four sources said.

The intervention follows reporting by the Guardian that V2X employees were stationed at US military bases in Kuwait, and at Martyr Brigadier General Ali Flaih airbase and Erbil in Iraq. Employees claimed having inadequate protections, receiving limited communications from the company about evacuation plans and being pressured to remain in the Middle East. In Iraq, workers say they are targets of Iran-allied attacks, and one employee was killed in a night-time drone attack in March.

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Tehran has ‘no plans to participate’ in talks with US, state media reports

Reported response comes hours after Trump announced delegation to Islamabad, having earlier threatened to raze Iran’s infrastructure

Tehran is not currently planning to take part in new talks with the US, Iran state media reported on Sunday evening, hours after Donald Trump said he was dispatching negotiators to Islamabad.

“There are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-US talks,” state broadcaster IRIB said, citing Iranian sources.

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Starmer will not be swayed by Trump’s ‘small and petty’ insults, says Lammy

Exclusive: deputy PM says UK will not join Iran conflict despite Trump’s sometimes ‘incomprehensible’ social-media barbs

Donald Trump’s insults towards Keir Starmer are “small and petty” and designed to put pressure on the prime minister to change his position on Iran, David Lammy has said, as he insisted the UK would not get dragged into the conflict.

The deputy prime minister argued the US president should be able to “disagree agreeably” with allies rather than publishing attacks on social media, and that US actions had “made things worse, not better” as far as global instability was concerned.

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Republican senator criticizes Trump’s ‘holy war’ with Pope Leo

Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, a long supporter of Trump, says president’s feud with the pope is a ‘distraction’

A Republican lawmaker has condemned what he refers to as Donald Trump’s “holy war” against Pope Leo XIV.

Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, a long supporter of Trump and the ultraconservative Maga movement, condemned the president’s attacks on the pope during a Fox News interview on Saturday.

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Intemperate Trump brings chaos and confusion to Iran talks

US president’s unreliable style sows diplomatic confusion but leaves Tehran clear on strategic value of strait of Hormuz

Donald Trump’s decision to send US officials to Islamabad for further talks on Monday with Iran just 24 hours after Iran once again closed the strait of Hormuz will signal to Tehran that the strategic waterway remains a bargaining asset beyond parallel.

It will also confirm in Iran’s eyes that the US president’s chaotic approach to diplomacy doubles the need for Tehran to act calmly and strategically – two competencies it believes he totally lacks.

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Trump energy secretary says gas prices might not drop back under $3 a gallon until 2027

Chris Wright says ‘I don’t know’ when asked about lower cost of gas as average price soars to $4 a gallon in US

Chris Wright, the Trump administration’s energy secretary, acknowledged Sunday that it might not be until 2027 before US gas prices come back under $3 a gallon.

Asked by Jake Tapper, the CNN State of the Union host, when he thought “it’s realistic for Americans to expect the gas will go back to under $3 a gallon”, Wright replied: “I don’t know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year.”

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Trump and Tehran’s series of mismanaged posts stall progress towards peace

US president’s desperation for war to end has seen him trying to speed through a process he does not fully control

A set of mismanaged and premature media announcements by Donald Trump and Tehran has led to the collapse of progress towards a peace settlement between Iran and the US.

The recent missteps ended with Iran saying it would reinstate a complete block on the movement of commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz and that it would not allow any of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to be exported out of the country.

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Iran closes strait of Hormuz again ‘until US lifts blockade’

IRGC reportedly fires on tanker as it tries to pass through strait during brief window when shipping lane had reopened

Iranian officials say they have reversed the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reimposed restrictions on the vital shipping lane after the US said it would not end its blockade of Iranian ports.

A UK maritime agency reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ships had fired at a tanker as it attempted to pass through the strait on Saturday. Reuters reported an Indian-flagged vessel carrying crude oil had also been attacked while in the waterway.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran warns it will close strait of Hormuz if US blockade continues

Iranian parliamentary speaker also says passage through waterway will depend on Iranian authorisation and accuses Donald Trump of multiple falsehoods

A convoy of tankers was seen departing the Gulf and transiting the strait of Hormuz on Saturday, vessel-tracking data showed.

The group comprised four liquefied petroleum gas carriers and several oil product and chemical tankers, with more tankers following from the Gulf, according to MarineTraffic data cited by Reuters.

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Two weeks that pushed Trump to the edge. Is his presidency unravelling?

The president has opened fissures in his base by starting a war he couldn’t finish with Iran, stoking inflation and offending Christians. Barred from running again, he may feel he has nothing to lose

Lance Johnson voted for Donald Trump three times. Now he is feeling buyer’s remorse. “I haven’t been too happy with the third time around,” said the 47-year-old contractor, sitting at a bar in Crescent Springs, Kentucky. “We’re supposed to not start any new wars. Prices were supposed to come down. We were promised a lot of things and we’re not getting them.”

Johnson is not the only Trump voter having doubts about a US president who, after defying political gravity for a decade, finally seems to be crashing back to earth. The past two weeks have arguably been the most bruising of Trump’s two terms in office, suggesting that his tried and trusted playbook could finally be falling apart.

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Iran says strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ but sounds warning on US blockade

Iran’s parliamentary speaker says strait could close again if US blockade continues, but Trump says it will remain in place until ‘transaction’ with Tehran is complete

Iran’s foreign minister has said that the strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels, reinforcing hopes for an eventual end to the war in the Middle East and sending oil prices tumbling despite analysts’ warnings that there will be no immediate widespread resumption of passage through the vital waterway.

In a barrage of social media posts, Donald Trump claimed on Friday that Iran had agreed never to close the strategic waterway again, hailing “A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!”

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Air Canada temporarily suspends some flights to New York and other locations

Spirit Airlines reportedly seeks emergency US government funding as war against Iran keeps aviation fuel costs high

Air Canada has announced a temporary suspension of flights from Toronto and Montreal to New York’s John F Kennedy airport, citing rising fuel prices.

The move comes amid growing concerns that airlines worldwide may scale back services as aviation fuel costs climb in the wake of the US and Israel’s ongoing war with Iran, which entered a fragile ceasefire earlier in April. Although Iran announced on Friday that the strait of Hormuz had reopened, helping ease oil prices, fuel costs remain significantly elevated after weeks of disruption.

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