The race for oil: will Jamaica be the next country to drill and what does that mean for its green pledges?

With early tests suggesting the presence of crude oil, the Caribbean island has begun to debate whether it could justify becoming a producer

Jamaica is closer than ever to drilling for oil. Tests on samples from the seabed off the Caribbean island’s south coast earlier this year identified hydrocarbons, which suggest the presence of crude oil below ground.

Jamaica imports all its fuel, which costs about $1.5-2bn (£1.1bn-1.5bn) annually, depending on global oil prices. It is a persistent drag on an economy that generated $4.3bn from tourism, its biggest earner, in 2024.

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Oil prices fall below $100 a barrel on hopes of Iran peace deal

Brent crude futures down 6% to lowest level in two weeks and stock markets rise

Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on Monday and stock markets rose on hopes that the US and Iran are inching closer to a peace deal.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were down 6% to $97.43 a barrel, the lowest level in two weeks, with hopes that an agreement to end the near three-month US-Israeli war on Iran can be struck.

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With oil markets nearing the danger zone, a US-Iran deal can’t come soon enough | Heather Stewart

Global prices are approaching a tipping point that could trigger inflation, shortages and, over time, recession

If a US-Iran deal is about to be reached, three months on from the launch of Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, it will not be a day too soon for oil markets, which are approaching a dangerous tipping point.

The cost of a barrel of crude on the spot market – for immediate purchase, effectively – has bounced about $100 since Iran predictably responded to the onslaught from the US and Israel by closing the strait of Hormuz.

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What may be included in proposed Iran ceasefire deal?

Proposed framework hinges on a 60-day truce, reopening strait of Hormuz, and revived talks on limiting Iran nuclear programme

Middle East crisis: live updates

Donald Trump has said a “memorandum of understanding” in talks to end the US-Israel war on Iran “has been largely negotiated”.

Official details of the deal remain scant and it remains possible some aspects of the memo could change, but here is what we know so far about the potential agreement that could bring an end to the war.

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Oil markets nearing ‘red zone’ as Iran crisis continues, warns IEA chief

Surging demand, low reserves and reduced Middle East exports predicted to cause global crunch by August

Oil markets will enter the “red zone” by July and August as stocks dwindle before the summer travel season amid a shortage of fresh oil exports from the Middle East, the executive director of the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday.

Fatih Birol added that the most important solution to the Iran war energy shock was a full and unconditional reopening of the strait of Hormuz.

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Streeting says he resigned because Labour ‘in fight of our lives against nationalism’, and is currently losing – UK politics live

Former health secretary standing down after saying he no longer had confidence in Keir Starmer as PM

Labour is in a curious, transitional state at the moment. Officially Keir Starmer is committed to staying as leader and prime minister until the next election. There is no formal leadership contest underway. But, informally, it has already started, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting already setting out their offer to the Labour membership. We will hear more from Streeting this afternoon. But much of the parliamentary party is already working on the basis that a Burnham premiership is all-but-inevitable, and so Streeting’s interventions may turn out to be more about shoring up his position in a potential future Burnham administration than a rehearsal for an election that may never happen.

Here are some of the stories out today covering Starmer, Burnham and Streeting.

Ailbhe Rea in the New Statesman says an insider describes the atmosphere in No 10 now as “very, very odd”. She says:

Starmer and his remaining loyal cabinet ministers want to make every day that they are still in office count, and are determined to cut through the noise of the leadership drama. Many cabinet ministers, who may not survive long in their posts if Starmer is replaced as Prime Minister, are desperate to set a legacy and bank achievements in their briefs while they can. “Let’s get out there and make the case for what we’re doing,” has been Starmer’s message to colleagues. There is even a fleeting hope inside Downing Street that the leadership speculation “burns itself out”, that “Wes and Andy tearing chunks out of each other for weeks might just make Keir look better”. But even many loyalists accept that is wishful thinking. “The writing is on the wall, even if we don’t know exactly what form that takes yet,” one concludes.

Patrick Maguire, Geraldine Scott and Larisa Brown in the Times say Starmer could stay in Downing Street until early next year. They report:

Ministers familiar with Starmer’s thinking say he has no plans to step down before the Labour Party conference in September and is unlikely to relinquish office before Christmas.

They told The State of It, the political podcast from The Times and Sunday Times, that there were still significant obstacles ahead for Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, who on Tuesday refused to rule out breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge against tax rises.

Caroline Wheeler in the i says cabinet ministers are already angling for jobs in a Burnham administration. She says:

Senior ministers are preparing visits to Makerfield amid growing expectations in Westminster that Burnham could ultimately take the Labour leadership – and with it the power to appoint the next Cabinet.

“The equation cabinet ministers are making is that if they go and he wins they will get a plum job,” one senior source said. “If they don’t go and he wins, he will remember. And if they don’t go and he loses, he will remember.”

Many now believe that Burnham is lining up to make Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, as his chancellor. It comes as Miliband’s special adviser was seconded to work with Burnham for the by-election campaign …

Burnham is also widely expected to make Lucy Powell, the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, his deputy prime minister. Multiple sources said that other women likely to be given top jobs include Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister, Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary, and Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary, who is also the co-chair of the influential soft-left Tribune group of MPs.

Sam Blewett at Politico has taken an in-depth look at the team supporting Burnham. He says the key figure is Kevin Lee, director of the Greater Manchester mayor’s office, who has been advising Burnham with little break since 2010.

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UAE to complete second oil pipeline bypassing strait of Hormuz by 2027

State oil company fast-tracks previously undisclosed project, which is expected to double export capacity

The United Arab Emirates has announced it will complete a new oil pipeline bypassing the strait of Hormuz by next year to secure its future crude exports against the threat of disruption.

The current blockade of the vital waterway, through which 20% of oil and seaborne gas flowed before the Iran war, is approaching the 11-week mark, sending energy prices soaring around the world and throttling Gulf economies.

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Watchdog groups urge Senate to investigate Samuel Alito over oil stock conflicts

Groups say supreme court justice, who owns oil stocks, may be violating ethics codes by participating in certain cases

The supreme court justice Samuel Alito, who owns stock in oil companies, may be violating court ethics codes by participating in certain cases that could benefit big oil, government watchdog groups say.

In a Thursday letter, a coalition of watchdog organizations called on the Senate judiciary committee to investigate Alito, the sole supreme court justice with holdings in energy companies.

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‘Inevitable’ jet fuel shortages will drive up air fares this summer, says Willie Walsh

Impact of disruption from Iran war may be felt into 2027 even if strait of Hormuz reopens, says aviation body boss

Increases in air fares for travellers in Europe are “inevitable” over the peak summer period because of the high cost of jet fuel, according to the head of the international aviation body.

While some airlines faced with weak demand have reduced their European fares recently, Willie Walsh, the former British Airways boss who leads the International Air Transport Association, said there was no way carriers could absorb the extra costs in the long run.

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Iran war oil shortage forces Japan snack giant to use black-and-white packaging

Calbee to switch its brightly coloured packaging to black and white because war has disrupted supply of certain raw materials used in ink

Japan’s biggest snack maker has been forced to use black-and-white packaging for some flagship products because of ink ingredient shortages caused by the strait of Hormuz blockade.

Calbee, whose potato chip brands in particular are known for brightly coloured bag designs, said 14 of its products would switch to monochrome branding by the end of May.

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Royal Navy tracks Russian frigate for one month off UK coast

Moscow steps up maritime presence in North Sea after UK threats to seize shadow fleet oil tankers

Britain’s Royal Navy tracked and followed a Russian frigate every day last month as it sailed from the Atlantic to the North Sea, as Moscow steps up its maritime presence after UK threats to seize shadow fleet oil tankers.

The Russian navy’s Admiral Grigorovich escorted six Russia-linked vessels during April, including at least three under economic sanction passing east through the Dover strait, while being watched continuously by four UK ships and helicopters.

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Airlines among companies using fuel surcharges to cover surge in costs, UK survey shows

Firms raising prices at fastest rate in three years, driven by soaring energy and wage bills but also extra materials costs

Airlines and other companies are increasingly using fuel surcharges to cover soaring costs, a survey has found, in a further sign of Iran war-linked inflation hitting the economy.

A poll of companies in the services sector, which includes airlines, found rising fuel prices had contributed to businesses raising prices at the fastest pace in more than three years in April.

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Wednesday briefing: How Trump’s attempt to reopen to strait of Hormuz brought war closer again

In today’s newsletter: ​The brief US effort to ​s​teer trapped vessels through the ​waterway ​put the fragile ceasefire under strain

Good morning. Uncertainty once again reigns in the Middle East. The uneasy ceasefire between the US and Iran threatened to disintegrate after Donald Trump launched an initiative – dubbed “Project Freedom” – to help thousands of sailors stranded in the Gulf by the war to pass through the strait of Hormuz.

To Iran, the announcement was a cynical provocation. Flurries of fighting restarted as Iran sought to maintain its grip on the critical passageway out of the region.

UK politics | Zack Polanski falsely claimed to be a spokesperson for the British Red Cross while campaigning for the Green party leadership, the charity has said.

Fuel shortages| Two million airline seats have been cut from this month’s schedules as airlines redraw their operations because of soaring jet fuel prices amid the Middle East conflict.

UK news| A British crew member who became ill after a suspected outbreak of hantavirus on luxury cruise ship the MV Hondius is to be medically evacuated, officials have said.

Tax | An increased windfall tax should be imposed on the UK’s largest banks, say trade union leaders, after the big four lenders reported almost £14bn in first-quarter profits, partly fuelled by market turbulence amid the Iran war.

Society | People from black backgrounds in England are twice as likely to experience strokes as their white counterparts, while also being less likely to receive timely care, according to the largest study of its kind.

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Nigerian refinery accused of sacking union members is key to UK plan to tackle jet fuel shortage

Heidi Alexander says part of answer to strait of Hormuz crisis is importing more fuel from US and west Africa

A refinery in Nigeria accused of dismissing workers for joining a union has emerged as key to the UK government’s hopes of saving the summer holiday amid a jet fuel shortage.

Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, said at the weekend that part of the answer to the strait of Hormuz crisis was to import more fuel from the US and west Africa.

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Iran supreme leader issues defiant statement on strait of Hormuz

Mojtaba Khamenei says Tehran will eliminate ‘enemy’s abuses of the waterway’ and guard its nuclear and missile programmes

Iran’s supreme leader has broken his recent silence with a defiant statement hailing Iran’s control over shipping in the strait of Hormuz and vowing to guard the country’s nuclear and missile programmes.

“Today, two months after the largest military deployment and aggression by the world’s bullies in the region, and the United States’ disgraceful defeat in its plans, a new chapter is unfolding for the Persian Gulf and the strait of Hormuz,” Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement read by a state television anchor.

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How the UAE’s decision to leave Opec could recast the Middle East

Defection is damaging to Saudi Arabia’s prestige – and could strengthen the US hand in the region

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.

In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit. But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding.

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UAE quits Opec in win for Trump as oil cartel weakened

US president has accused organisation of ‘ripping off the rest of the world’ by inflating oil prices

The United Arab Emirates has quit the Opec oil cartel after 60 years of membership, in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as global energy markets contend with the biggest supply crisis in history.

The shock loss of the UAE, Opec’s third-largest oil producer, is expected to weaken the group, which for decades has worked together to use its collective oil production to influence global oil market prices.

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Renewable energy will boost national security and protect UK from sabotage, minister says

Widely dispersed wind farms and solar panels are harder to target than fossil fuel power stations, Michael Shanks says

Renewable energy will boost the UK’s national security and make the country more resilient against potential aggression or sabotage, the government’s energy minister has said.

Michael Shanks said widely dispersed wind farms and solar panels were much harder to target than large-scale fossil fuel power stations. They are also not vulnerable to supply shocks, such as the current oil crisis caused by the US-Israel war on Iran and the soaring gas prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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Tokyo workers encouraged to wear shorts to cut energy costs and keep cool

Officials hope more casual attire for public servants will save electricity during Iran war as summer heat approaches

Public servants working for the Tokyo metropolitan government are being encouraged to swap their suits for shorts this summer to combat sweltering heat and rising energy costs caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Inspired by Japan’s Cool Biz energy-saving initiative, Tokyo officials hope the measure will cut dependence on air conditioning.

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Extended naval blockade is admission US military escalation poses even greater risk

Battle of the blockades may still have more time to run as the US and Iran try to assert control over the strait of Hormuz

Donald Trump’s decision to extend the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely may do nothing to reduce world oil prices – but it could amount to a recognition that further US military escalation in breach of the nominal ceasefire comes with greater risk against a regime disinclined to surrender.

In theory, Trump’s military options are increasing. A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, is due to arrive in the Middle East within days after rounding South Africa. A second taskforce of 2,500 US marines is sailing from the Pacific and is due to arrive by the end of April.

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