Extended naval blockade is admission US military escalation poses even greater risk

Battle of the blockades may still have more time to run as the US and Iran try to assert control over the strait of Hormuz

Donald Trump’s decision to extend the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely may do nothing to reduce world oil prices – but it could amount to a recognition that further US military escalation in breach of the nominal ceasefire comes with greater risk against a regime disinclined to surrender.

In theory, Trump’s military options are increasing. A third US carrier strike group, the George HW Bush, is due to arrive in the Middle East within days after rounding South Africa. A second taskforce of 2,500 US marines is sailing from the Pacific and is due to arrive by the end of April.

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Trump claims US has total control over strait of Hormuz after Iran seizes two container ships

US president says Tehran hobbled by infighting as Pentagon reportedly briefs mine clearance may take six months

Donald Trump has again said that the US has “total control over the strait of Hormuz”, adding that Iran’s leadership was so hobbled by infighting that it was unclear who was in charge.

But the US president’s claim seemed questionable in the face of the seizure of two container ships by Iranian commandos and a US report warning it could take six months to clear the strait of mines.

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‘Impossible’ to reopen strait of Hormuz amid ‘flagrant’ ceasefire breaches, Iran says

Iranian forces seize two ships in critical waterway as Washington and Tehran maintain separate blockades

Iranian forces have seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran doubled down on imposing separate blockades of the shipping waterway.

The standoff over the strait – through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied fossil gas passed through during peacetime – has raised doubts about whether stalled peace negotiations will resume.

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Strait of Hormuz is hosting gunboat diplomacy as US and Iran vie for most effective blockade

Iran’s goal is to maintain chokehold on the global economy, even as some say it could run out of oil storage by Sunday

Donald Trump’s indefinite shelving of the plan to bomb Iran’s bridges and power stations on Tuesday night is being widely described as leaving the conflict in limbo, but that is anything but the truth.

Pakistan insists the prospect of talks in Islamabad has not evaporated, and positive messages are still being exchanged, but in the meantime the site of kinetic activity has switched from land to sea.

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Condom prices could rise 30% due to Iran war, says world’s top producer Karex

Karex produces more than 5 billion condoms annually and is a supplier to leading brands like Durex and Trojan, as well as the NHS

The world’s top condom producer, Malaysia’s Karex Bhd, plans to raise prices by 20% to 30% and possibly further if supply chain disruptions drag on due to the Iran war, its chief executive has said.

Karex is also seeing a surge in condom demand as rising freight costs and shipping delays have left many of its customers with lower stockpiles than usual, CEO Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran claims it has ‘new cards for battlefield’, and weighs talks in Pakistan

Iranian official stresses no decision made on taking part, as US vice-president JD Vance is set to travel to Islamabad for negotiations

Iran’s armed forces are ready to deliver an “immediate and decisive response” to any renewed hostile action by its adversaries, Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, was quoted by the Tasnim news agency as having said.

He said Tehran had the upper hand militarily, including in the management of the strait of Hormuz, and would not allow Donald Trump to “create false narratives over the situation on the ground.”

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Iran closes strait of Hormuz again ‘until US lifts blockade’

IRGC reportedly fires on tanker as it tries to pass through strait during brief window when shipping lane had reopened

Iranian officials say they have reversed the reopening of the strait of Hormuz and reimposed restrictions on the vital shipping lane after the US said it would not end its blockade of Iranian ports.

A UK maritime agency reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ships had fired at a tanker as it attempted to pass through the strait on Saturday. Reuters reported an Indian-flagged vessel carrying crude oil had also been attacked while in the waterway.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran warns it will close strait of Hormuz if US blockade continues

Iranian parliamentary speaker also says passage through waterway will depend on Iranian authorisation and accuses Donald Trump of multiple falsehoods

A convoy of tankers was seen departing the Gulf and transiting the strait of Hormuz on Saturday, vessel-tracking data showed.

The group comprised four liquefied petroleum gas carriers and several oil product and chemical tankers, with more tankers following from the Gulf, according to MarineTraffic data cited by Reuters.

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Iran says strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ but sounds warning on US blockade

Iran’s parliamentary speaker says strait could close again if US blockade continues, but Trump says it will remain in place until ‘transaction’ with Tehran is complete

Iran’s foreign minister has said that the strait of Hormuz is now fully open to commercial vessels, reinforcing hopes for an eventual end to the war in the Middle East and sending oil prices tumbling despite analysts’ warnings that there will be no immediate widespread resumption of passage through the vital waterway.

In a barrage of social media posts, Donald Trump claimed on Friday that Iran had agreed never to close the strategic waterway again, hailing “A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!”

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Middle East crisis live: Hezbollah urges Lebanon to pull out of talks with Israel; blockade of strait of Hormuz begins

Hezbollah says it will not abide by agreements that result from the Lebanon-Israel talks in the US; Trump claims Iran wants to make a deal

Pakistan has reportedly proposed hosting a second round of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad in the coming days, before the end of the ceasefire, the Associated Press has reported.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter with the press, said the proposal would depend on whether the parties request a different location.

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Anthony Albanese urges Israel to stop Lebanon attacks that intensified during Middle East ceasefire

PM tells Guardian Australia Hezbollah should cease reprisals and confirms Australia’s military surveillance aircraft will remain in region

Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has urged Israel to stop its attacks on Lebanon and raised concern over its intensified military campaign on Beirut and the country’s south after the ceasefire in the Middle East.

Albanese also called on Hezbollah to cease attacks on Israel, reiterating his government’s belief that the Middle East ceasefire must include Lebanon. The prime minister also confirmed Australia’s military surveillance aircraft would remain in the region for at least another month beyond its initial deployment.

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Irish police clear Dublin blockade staged by fuel price protesters

Hundreds of officers deployed to regain control of O’Connell Street on sixth day of protests by farmers and hauliers

Police have cleared a blockade of central Dublin by farmers and hauliers who were protesting about fuel prices, signalling a possible end to six days of protests that have rocked Ireland.

Mounted units and hundreds of officers regained control of O’Connell Street in a peaceful operation that emptied the thoroughfare of trucks and tractors on Sunday morning.

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Collapse of US-Iran talks heightens fears of prolonged energy shock

Oil prices and borrowing costs are expected to rise this week as tankers remain stranded in the Gulf

The failure of the US and Iran to reach a peace deal after marathon negotiations has put markets on alert for further oil and gas price rises.

With large numbers of oil tankers remaining stuck in the Gulf, the US vice-president, JD Vance, blamed the collapse of the talks on Tehran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian sources hit back at “excessive” demands from Washington.

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JD Vance says talks failed due to Iran’s refusal to give up nuclear programme

Iranian delegates in Islamabad say Washington needs to do more to win their trust if talks to resolve US-Iran conflict are to be successful

The US vice-president, JD Vance, has blamed the failure of marathon negotiations with Iran on the country’s refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons programme, while Iranian delegates have claimed Washington needs to do more to win their trust.

Vance, who left Islamabad on Sunday morning after 21 hours of talks with Iranian officials in the Pakistani capital, said his team had been very clear on its red lines, as hopes faded of a quick end to the conflict that began on 28 February.

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Is Iran Trump’s Suez crisis, or just a passing thunderstorm?

Britain’s standing in the world was never the same after its assault on Egypt in 1956. Now the US risks repeating history in the Middle East

Donald Trump’s addiction to framing every event in the most apocalyptic terms is what allows conservative commentators such as Mark Levin to praise him as “a once-in-a-century president”.

But Trump cannot play out his entire presidency on a reckless high wire without eventually falling off – potentially taking America with him into a steep decline into the unknown.

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War has given Iran new leverage for nuclear programme, say US former envoys

Negotiators of 2015 deal say Tehran has seen how cutting off Hormuz strait can help it counter asymmetry of power

Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have said that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.

Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration’s war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran “balance the asymmetry of power” with the US.

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Defence secretary reveals UK navy foiled secret Russian submarine operation in North Sea – UK politics live

John Healey says navy forced Russia to abandon activity in month-long operation

In interviews this morning Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, declined to confirm reports that a Russian warship has been escorting two sanctioned Russian ships through the English channel.

Sanctioned Russian ships carry oil being sold to fund the war in Ukraine, and the UK government recently announced that the armed forces have been authorised to board these ships in British waters to stop them.

What I can tell you is that we have given permission now for action to be taken against the Russian shadow fleet. Operational decisions then have to be taken in the right way by the military.

There are indications of the way in which not just the Russian shadow fleet is operating, but also the way in which we are seeing increased Russian threats, not just to the UK, but across Europe as well.

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Strait of Hormuz not open, Abu Dhabi’s oil chief says as crude prices rise

Uncertainty over US-Iran ceasefire pushes price of Brent crude towards $100 a barrel

The boss of Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company has said the strait of Hormuz is “not open” despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreed earlier this week, as uncertainty over the truce pushed the price of Brent crude towards $100 a barrel on Thursday.

Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive officer of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), said passage through the crucial waterway was subject to “permission, conditions and political leverage” by Iran. He said energy security and global economic stability depended on the strait being opened “fully, unconditionally and without restriction”.

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Thursday briefing: ​What difference will the ceasefire in the Middle East make, and will it hold?

In today’s newsletter: The truce offers a reprieve after weeks of turmoil, ​b​ut unresolved disputes and competing interpretations ​of what was agreed, threaten to pull the region back toward crisis​ at a moment’s notice

Good morning. On Tuesday, just an hour before the deadline imposed by Donald Trump for Iran to reopen navigation in the strait of Hormuz or face a wave of “civilisation-ending” strikes, a two-week pause in hostilities was announced. After weeks of US and Israeli attacks on Tehran, and Iranian retaliation across the region, the news prompted relief among world leaders.

But unanswered questions are piling up. Israel’s assault on Lebanon continues, with Trump describing that conflict as a separate skirmish not included in the deal, despite Iran seeming to think otherwise. Overnight the US president has used social media to warn that “the ‘shootin’ starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before” unless Tehran complies with “the real agreement”.

Middle East | The fate of the two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict looked in peril as both sides gave divergent versions of what had been agreed. Iran halted the passage of oil tankers because of an alleged Israeli ceasefire breach.

Middle East | Israel carried out its largest attack on Lebanon since its war with Hezbollah began, killing at least 254 people and wounding 837.

Middle East | The UK has a “job” to help reopen the strait of Hormuz, Keir Starmer said on arriving in the Middle East, as Iranian reports said the key shipping route was closed again just hours after the supposed US-Iran ceasefire.

Ukraine | The US has ignored compelling evidence that Russia has been helping Iran to target US bases in the Middle East because it misguidedly “trusts” Vladimir Putin, according to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Education | Many English universities are taking excessive financial risks with borrowing and expansion of student numbers, threatening not only their own survival but that of others in the sector, the thinktank Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) has warned.

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Starmer says UK wants to help with opening of Hormuz strait on Gulf visit

PM meets Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia before further visits to regional allies, who may see him as more reliable than Trump

The UK has a “job” to help reopen the strait of Hormuz, Keir Starmer has said, as Iranian reports said the key shipping route was closed again just hours after a supposed ceasefire.

The prime minister met British and local military personnel at an airbase in Taif, Saudi Arabia, at the start of what is expected to be a wider trip to Gulf allies, one billed as a mirror to his efforts to pull together a plan for how a ceasefire might operate in Ukraine.

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