Trump needs a better Iran deal than Obama’s – but faces major hurdles

US president will need to show heavy costs of war were worthwhile while Iran must choose between instant and delayed gratification

If talks between Iran and the US reconvene within the next few days in Islamabad, Donald Trump will have two major political hurdles to overcome – first showing that any deal he secures is better than the one signed by Barack Obama in 2015 and from which he withdraw in 2018, and secondly proving the deal is more favourable than the one on offer in Geneva in February before he launched his war.

Otherwise he will have inflicted massive damage on the world economy when alternatives were available that were less costly in blood and treasure. He will also have to show that Iran has made no permanent gain by taking control of shipping passing through the strait of Hormuz. These are the yardsticks, or tests, around which his negotiating team will be keeping an anxious eye.

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War has given Iran new leverage for nuclear programme, say US former envoys

Negotiators of 2015 deal say Tehran has seen how cutting off Hormuz strait can help it counter asymmetry of power

Former US envoys who dealt with Iran have said that the US-Israeli attack on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the strait of Hormuz have given Iran new tools and resolve to resist pressure to shutter its nuclear programme.

Two senior negotiators for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Obama-era agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, said the Trump administration’s war had handed Iran a coveted weapon by demonstrating its ability to cut off the strait of Hormuz, an economic chokehold that one negotiator said would help Iran “balance the asymmetry of power” with the US.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say

Tehran has enough material to make at least 10 nuclear warheads but extracting it would be very risky, say experts

The Trump administration is reportedly considering the deployment of special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which experts say could be used to make at least 10 nuclear warheads.

Preventing Iran from acquiring a bomb is one of Trump’s stated war aims, and the 440kg HEU stockpile represents the greatest nuclear threat as it could be turned into weapons-grade uranium relatively easily. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has told Congress that “people are going to have to go and get it”.

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US and Israel launch strikes on Iran: what we know so far

Joint operation prompts Tehran to retaliate with missile attacks on bases across Middle East

Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been killed as the US and Israel launch a war on Iran to trigger regime change, Donald Trump has claimed. The US president announced the death of the ayatollah, who has ruled Iran as supreme leader since 1989, in a post on Truth Social. “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead,” Trump wrote.

The death of Iran’s supreme leader was announced after waves of air attacks across the country. Iran’s Red Crescent reported more than 200 deaths and 747 injuries in daylong attacks across 24 provinces.

At least 100 people were reportedly killed in a strike on a primary school in Minab, in the south-east.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, had earlier said there were “many signs” Khamenei was “no longer alive”, and Israeli officials briefed media that his body had been recovered.

Tehran fired retaliatory strikes against Israeli and US bases across the Middle East. Iran’s attacks targeted more than six countries, pulling in places that had been previously untouched by the escalating crisis.

In Israel, one person died and 22 others are injured, media reports say, after an Iranian missile strike hit a building in Tel Aviv. An official said the building was aflame and had partially collapsed.

In Dubai, a number of people were injured after an incident occurred at Dubai international airport, the Dubai media office has said. The Burj Al Arab and Fairmont hotels caught fire amid Iranian attacks.

The United Arab Emirates said in a statement that it had intercepted the vast majority of the 137 missiles and 209 drones fired at its territory by Iran in the hours after the US and Israel launched a regime change war on the Islamic Republic.

In Bahrain, an Iranian drone flew into a high-rise building in what looked like a targeted attack, exploding and engulfing the skyscraper in flames. Earlier, the country’s national security agency was also struck by an Iranian missile.

Social media footage also appeared to show a missile hitting the huge US naval base in Bahrain. In Kuwait, a drone crashed into the country’s main airport, wounding several employees and damaging the facility.

In Lebanon, gas stations across the country had lines 10 cars deep within an hour of the strikes. People in Beirut airport watched as commercial flights were cancelled, and grocery stores were filled with the more cautious stocking up on essential goods – the memory of the 2024 war with Israel fresh in their minds.

At least one person was killed and seven wounded during an “incident” at Abu Dhabi’s Zayed international airport, officials said after Iranian strikes targeting the United Arab Emirates and Gulf states.

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Trump ‘not happy’ with Iran situation and says military force is still an option

US president accuses Tehran of failing to ‘negotiate in good faith’ over its nuclear programme

Donald Trump says he has not made a final decision on whether to launch strikes on Iran but is “not happy” with the situation and military force – including regime change – remains an option.

The remarks came at the White House on Friday after talks between the US and Iran on Tehran’s nuclear programme ended inconclusively, with a suggestion that further discussions would be held next week.

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Latest US-Iran nuclear talks conclude with claims of ‘significant progress’

Mediators say more talks to be held next week but no clear evidence two sides any closer on uranium enrichment

High-stakes talks between the US and Iran over the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme ended on Thursday with the Omani mediators claiming that “significant progress” had been made and predicting the talks would reconvene at a technical level next week in Vienna.

But there was no immediate evidence to support suggestions that the two sides had drawn closer together on the fundamental issues of Iran’s right to enrich uranium and the future of its highly enriched uranium stocks.

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Armed police flood Iran’s universities to crush student protests

Campus clashes provide uneasy backdrop to third round of talks on nuclear programme in Geneva

Plainclothes police and security forces, many of them armed, have tried to flood Iran’s remaining open universities in an attempt to crush a fourth day of student protests against the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Running battles were reported on some campuses, with videos showing fistfights between the Basji state-backed militia and students at the University of Science and Technology in Tehran. Pick-up trucks with machine-guns were photographed parked outside the University of Tehran, with demonstrations also in Mashhad.

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Washington and Tehran to hold more nuclear talks as protests reignite in Iran

Fresh Geneva negotiations suggest Trump’s team believes the Iranian government is making serious proposals

Iran and the US are expected to meet for a further round of talks in Geneva this week in a sign that Donald Trump’s team believes Tehran is making serious proposals to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and show it is not seeking a nuclear weapon.

As fears loomed of renewed conflict after Washington carried out a major redeployment of military assets to the region, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said he thought there was still a good chance of finding a diplomatic solution.

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Iran willing to dilute uranium stockpile as fresh protests erupt

Proposal will be at heart of offer to US as Trump considers whether to attack Iran

Iran is refusing to export its 300kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but is willing to dilute the purity of the stockpile it holds under the supervision of UN nuclear inspectorate the IAEA, Iranian sources have said.

The proposal will be at the heart of the offer Iran is due to make to the US in the next few days, as the US president, Donald Trump, weighs whether to use his vast naval buildup in the Middle East to attack the country.

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Iran deal prospects will be clear within 10 days, Trump says as military buildup grows

Second carrier strike group heads for region as US waits for Iran to respond after talks in Geneva

Donald Trump has said it will be clear within “probably 10 days” whether he can reach a nuclear deal with Iran, as the US military buildup in the Middle East intensifies with the impending arrival of a second carrier strike group.

The US president, speaking at the inaugural meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington DC, insisted Iran could not have a nuclear weapon and emphasised that “bad things will happen” if the country continued “to threaten regional stability”.

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Forget the Board of Peace, Trump may be closer than thought to attacking Iran

Tehran may claim it will not negotiate under duress, but that is precisely what it is being required to do

Although much attention will be given to the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington, it is the “arsenal of war” that Donald Trump has assembled in the Middle East, and what it implies for the stately pace of Washington’s negotiations with Iran, that deserves more.

The well-connected Axios reporter Barak Ravid is hated in Iran – one news site on Thursday described him as a one-man psychological war operation against Tehran. But he is widely read, as was his report that the US viewed the talks in Geneva on Tuesday as a “nothing burger”, and that a full-scale attack on Iran was far closer than most Americans realised. The story led to a spike in oil prices and front-page pieces in US newspapers saying Trump’s military preparations would be complete by the weekend, with the president hinting a decision would be made “probably over the next 10 days”.

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Iran-US talks: agreement reached on ‘guiding principles’ after ‘constructive’ meeting, Tehran says

Discussions through Omani intermediaries may pave way for further meeting on nuclear programme, Iran says

Iran has described the latest round of indirect talks with the US as “more constructive” than the previous set earlier this month, and said agreement had been reached on “general guiding principles” that could lead to a further meeting to discuss its nuclear programme.

The talks – held in Geneva through Omani intermediaries – were to discuss the terms for Tehran constraining its nuclear programme under the supervision of the UN nuclear weapons inspectorate. They ended after three and a half hours.

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The patience and the poker face: Iran’s wily diplomat set to face the US in nuclear talks

Abbas Araghchi is steeped in more than a decade of nuclear dealmaking with a book on the art of negotiations

If the US and Iran are to avoid a regional war, both sides need to start to make concessions at talks in Geneva on Tuesday, and also to accommodate one another’s very different bargaining styles.

The Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, steeped in almost 15 years of Iranian nuclear talks, is a near lifelong diplomat who has written a book on the art of negotiations that reveals the secrets of the Iranian diplomatic trade – the feints, the patience, the poker faces.

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