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As not much has happened in the past hour, I’m going to close the blog by republishing my colleague Andrew Sparrow’s excellent snap analysis for those who missed it an hour or so ago. Thanks and goodnight.
Sky’s Lewis Goodall seems chirpy:
I’m going to bed and finally having a day off tomorrow. But in conclusion: something actually happened tonight.
With more than 120 MPs backing an amendment in support of indicative voting, it’s going to be a fraught five days
Many weeks have so far been billed as crunch weeks for Brexit. But with the revised departure date looming, Theresa May’s proposal looking all-but doomed and the prime minister’s own position openly questioned, the next days really do appear crucial. Here is what could happen and when.
I am going to wrap this up now. Here a few of tonight’s highlights at a glance:
Theresa May tells the British People ‘I’m on your side” ...which side is that? Leave, Remain, or Resign?
The summary of Beth Rigby, deputy political editor of Sky News, is blistering:
May’s national address badly misjudged. She has further angered the very people she needs to win over, MPs. Never before has the power of persuasion and art of compromise been so sorely needed and so clearly missing
Revolt by pro-Brexit cabinet ministers forces PM to request only three-month extension from EU
Theresa May will ask for only a short extension to article 50 delaying Brexit by less than three months, after a revolt among pro-leave cabinet ministers and MPs that threatened her premiership.
PM forced to seek extension of article 50 as No 10 admits it is too late to leave with a deal
Theresa May will be forced to write to EU leaders on Wednesday and beg them to delay Brexit, with her cabinet deadlocked over the best way out of what Downing Street now concedes is a “crisis”.
The government had maintained until the last possible moment that Brexit could go ahead as planned on 29 March or after a brief “technical extension”.
Prime minister likely to have to request long article 50 extension after Bercow intervenes
Theresa May’s government has been plunged into constitutional chaos after the Speaker blocked the prime minister from asking MPs to vote on her Brexit deal for a third time unless it had fundamentally changed.
I’m just back from the Downing Street lobby briefing. And it was a good illustration of the old rule that the length a briefing is in inverse proportion to its usefulness. (That’s because, if the reporters get a story, they want to wrap up quickly so they can file. If the briefing drags on, that’s because people keep asking questions in the hope that they might eventually get a useable reply.)
Here is the main takeaway.
Arriving at the EU foreign affairs council in Brussels this morning, Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said that he hoped there would be a third vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal tomorrow. But, he added, “we need to be comfortable that we’ll have the numbers.”
He said there were “some cautious signs of encouragement” in that Tories who have opposed the deal up to now, like Norman Lamont and Esther McVey, now want to see it passed. “But there is a lot more work to do,” Hunt added.
Party’s leader in European parliament says it must be prepared to field candidates
The Conservative party has contacted all its MEPs to ask them to consider running for election in May if the prime minister’s Brexit deal is defeated on Tuesday.
Ashley Fox, the party’s leader in the European parliament, contacted MEPs to ask them to think about their options in the event that Theresa May’s deal fails again.
The Democratic Unionist party is to continue intensive talks to try to reach an agreement to allow it to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal, with discussions focusing on domestic legal guarantees that Northern Ireland will have no regulatory divergence with the rest of the UK.
Downing Street is hopeful that the support of the DUP is key to unlocking the backing of many Conservative Brexiters when May brings her deal to the House of Commons for the third time.
The Irish premier, Leo Varadkar, has said London needs to tell the EU about what purpose an extension would serve and how long it would last.
Varadkar said he welcomed Westminster’s vote to extend Article 50 as it reduces the likelihood of a cliff edge, no-deal Brexit at the end of the month.
There seems to be two emerging options – ratification of the withdrawal agreement followed by a short extension into the summer, or a much longer extension that would give the UK time and space to decide what they want to do, including considering options that had been taken off the table like participation in the customs union and single market.
I think we need to be open to any request they make, listen attentively and be generous in our response. This matter will be now discussed further at next week’s European Council meeting and hopefully we will have more clarity from London in the meantime about their intentions.
Why EUCO should allow an extension, if the UK gov and her majority in the House of Commons are not ready for a cross-party approach to break the current deadlock ? https://t.co/lj1Tm4kmIg
Cable has now released a statement on his impending departure:
I indicated last year that, once the Brexit story had moved on and we had fought this year’s crucial local elections in 9,000 seats across England, it would be time for me to make way for a new generation. I set considerable store by having an orderly, business-like, succession unlike the power struggles in the other parties.
So I wanted you, our members, to know that, assuming Parliament does not collapse into an early general election, I will ask the party to begin a leadership contest in May.
Folks, it’s time to wrap up the blog for the night.
I’ll be back in a few hours to launch a new Politics live blog, bringing you all of Thursday’s Brexit and other political news. A reminder of what’s on the agenda for Thursday:
There have been some remarkable turns of phrase from commentators and politicians in their attempts to capture just what exactly has gone on in British politics in the last few days.
This is a turd of a deal, which has now been taken away and polished, and is now a polished turd. But it might be the best turd that we’ve got.
The House of Commons was a Benny Hill chase on acid, running through a Salvador Dali painting in a spaceship on its way to infinity.
A vague, and vain attempt to make sense of the great mad nights in British political history.
Boris Johnson, the Brexiter former foreign secretary, is speaking in the debate now. He says he had hoped that the EU would make the wholly reasonable changes the UK wanted. But the EU refused to do that.
Like Adam and Eve, they sowed a fig leaf that failed to cover the embarrassment of the UK, he says.
This deal has now reached the end of the road. If it is rejected tonight, I hope that it will be put to bed.
Eurosceptics could move against the PM if Commons defeat leads to Brexit delay
Theresa May was battling on Sunday night to save her Brexit deal and prolong her premiership, amid signs Eurosceptics could move against her if there is a delay to leaving the EU.
The prime minister’s position looked precarious as she was unable to announce any progress in talks with the EU less than 48 hours before her House of Commons vote on the deal.
Amber Rudd has apologised. According to the Press Association, she said she was “mortified at my clumsy language” and has apologised for describing Diane Abbott as “coloured”. (See 2.42pm.)
Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, has referred to Diane Abbott as “coloured”. As Patrick Maguire reports at the Staggers, she used the term in an interview with Jeremy Vine on Radio 2. Speaking about the abuse directed at MPs (see 1.12pm), Rudd said:
It definitely is worse if you’re a woman, and it’s worst of all if you’re a coloured woman. I know that Diane Abbott gets a huge amount of abuse, and I think that’s something we need to continue to call out.
An exciting new research project by the Guardian and Team Populism shows empirically what many have asserted and felt: the world is getting more populist. Professor Kirk Hawkins, from Brigham Young University in Utah, and 46 researchers analysed 728 public addresses by 140 presidents and prime ministers in 40 countries, in Europe and the Americas. This is the largest comparative project of this nature I am aware of, and a treasure trove for academics and journalists.
The study shows not just that the number of populist leaders has doubled, but that the average populist content of political leaders’ speeches has doubled too. Where political speeches were on average “not populist” in 2004, they are approaching “somewhat populist” today. To be clear, most of the political leaders studied were “not populist”, but that is to be expected of this particular subset of politicians, ie national leaders. Even today, populism is still primarily a feature of political challengers, who were not included in this study.
Brexit interventions have made British PM one of western Europe’s most populist orators
Theresa May has a reputation as a cautious and even robotic speaker. But a study that analysed speeches by world leaders has found that the British prime minister can be as populist – in her rhetoric at least – as Donald Trump, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
May’s public speeches were classified on average as at least “somewhat populist” in the research, which examined the discourse of prime ministers and presidents of all the major countries in Europe and the Americas in the last two decades. That made May the second-most populist female leader out of 138 heads of government since the turn of the century.
- The government are defeated on Labour’s amendment 13 in the House of Lords. The amendment makes it an “objective” of the government during negotiations to pursue a free trade deal allowing the UK to stay “in a customs union” with the EU after Brexit.
- The government was defeated on amendment 12 which called for parliamentary approval of future trade agreements.
Prince Charles has saluted the ”unparalleled bonds” between Britain and Ireland at a time of strained Anglo-Irish relations caused by Brexit.
The Prince of Wales was attending a special St Patrick’s Day dinner at the Irish embassy in London where British and Irish politicians mingled amid continuing uncertainty and recriminations over the Irish border issue in the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Tory Eurosceptic group says at least two days will be needed to scrutinise new compromise on Irish backstop
Tory Brexiters are to demand at least two days to scrutinise any new offer from Brussels on the Irish backstop mechanism, warning the prime minister not to “bounce” the group into an early vote on her Brexit deal.
May has pledged that a vote will take place on her proposal, including any changes agreed in Brussels, by 12 March, though it is possible that Downing Street will seek to bring the vote forward to this week if changes can be secured.
Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including the Commons debate on Brexit next steps, and Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs
The Electoral Commission has released its latest figures for political donations. In the last three months of 2018 £10.4m was given to political parties - £1.9m more than in the previous quarter. Most of it, £7.4m went to the Conservatives, who received more than four time as much in donations as Labour (£1.6m). The increase is almost certainly linked to speculation about a possible early election.
There are more details on the Electoral Commission website here.
On Sky’s All Out Politics the Labour MP Phil Wilson said Williamson should be suspended from the party for his comments. Wilson said:
I think it is just outrageous, really. And I think he should be suspended from the Labour party. I actually spoke to Tom Watson [the Labour deputy leader] about this this morning, and Tom is [of] the same view. Tom, I know, is writing to the general secretary of the Labour party to express his concerns about it. I just think it’s outrageous. There has got to be tough action taken on people like this in the Labour party. And when you have got a member of parliament expressing these views, I don’t think there is any place for them ultimately in the Labour party.