Latest updates: Labour party expects to retain seat but Tories will be pleased to win above 20% of vote, says election expert

YouGov have published the results of its latest poll on voting intention, showing that support for the Conservatives has dropped by a further three percentage points, and Labour have dropped by one percentage point, though the party retains a strong lead. Right-wing populist party Reform have gained four percentage points, though support remains low, at 9%. The other parties have stayed stable.

A poll in Scotland suggests that more people support Scottish independence than want to remain part of the United Kingdom.

The research found that 49% of Scottish respondents said they would vote Yes and 45% said they would vote No if there were to be a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should be an independent country, with the remainder saying they do not know.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies carried out the poll on November 26-27, days after the UK Supreme Court ruled another independence referendum cannot be held without Westminster’s consent.

Support for independence was higher than a comparable poll on 18 September last year, when 44% of respondents said they would vote Yes while 47% said they would vote No.

The latest poll, of 1,000 Scottish voters, also found 46% said they would support a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year, while 43% would oppose one, 9% said they would neither support nor oppose the prospect, and 2% said they did not know.

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said:

This poll shows growing support for what the people of Scotland expressed in the 2021 election, they want a choice to become an independent nation.

The chaos at Westminster in recent months has tanked the UK economy, accelerated inflation and crippled household budgets with soaring mortgages, all from successive Tory governments that Scotland didn’t elect.