Most Europeans want to stand with Kyiv against Moscow, poll suggests

More than 60% of people surveyed believe Nato should come to Ukraine’s defence if Russia invades

Majorities across Europe think Russia will invade Ukraine in 2022 and believe both Nato and the EU should stand by Kyiv, according to a study whose authors suggest the crisis could end up dramatically changing the way Europeans view their security.

“The data suggests something of a geopolitical awakening in Europe,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which carried out the polling in seven countries, accounting for two-thirds of the EU’s population.

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Emmanuel Macron’s remarks on Russia set alarm bells ringing

Analysis: French president’s comments after Ukraine talks with Vladimir Putin should concern Nato alliance

Domestic critics of Emmanuel Macron, Nato hardliners and the leadership in Ukraine will be suspiciously examining the French president’s late-night remarks at his Moscow press conference on Monday for signs of freelancing.

At one level, Macron, three months from a re-election campaign, stuck pretty faithfully to the script he had exhaustively agreed with his Nato partners before his meeting with Vladimir Putin, but at another level his particular view of Russia as a European nation, and lofty talk of a new security guarantees, will have set alarm bells ringing.

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Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief

White House believes Moscow has amassed at least 70% of firepower needed for mid-February invasion

Russia has enough troops in place to seize Kyiv or another Ukrainian city but not yet for a full takeover and occupation of the country, Ukraine’s former defence minister has said, as Washington warned that an invasion could take place at any time.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk said in an interview with the Guardian that the situation looked “pretty dire”. “Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine. But we still don’t see the 200,000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion,” he said.

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Biden rattles his sabre at Putin … but it’s Xi he really wants to scare

Tub-thumping talk of all-out war in Ukraine seems overblown but the White House knows the fledgling Sino-Russian axis is a real threat, in Taiwan and elsewhere

If, as seems increasingly probable, Russia decides not to launch an all-out invasion of Ukraine, tub-thumping US and British politicians who have spent weeks scaring the public with loose talk of looming Armageddon will have some explaining to do.

The military build-up directed by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, is real enough. But suspicion grows that the actual as opposed to the hypothetical threat of a large-scale conventional attack is being mis-read, misinterpreted, over-estimated or deliberately exaggerated.

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Kyiv urges Russia to pull troops back from Ukraine border

Call comes after Nato stresses need for EU countries to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas

Kyiv has urged Moscow to pull back its troops from Ukraine’s border and continue dialogue with the west if it is “serious” about de-escalating tensions that have soared amid fears of a Russian invasion.

“If Russian officials are serious when they say they don’t want a new war, Russia must continue diplomatic engagement and pull back military forces it amassed along Ukraine’s borders and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” Kyiv’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweeted on Sunday.

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US to heighten troop presence in eastern Europe, says Biden

The Pentagon has already placed 8,500 troops on stand-by in response to Russia’s build-up near Ukraine’s border

Joe Biden said on Friday that he will be moving US troops to eastern European and Nato countries “in the near term” as tensions rise over Russia’s military buildup on the borders of Ukraine.

The Pentagon has already placed about 8,500 US troops on stand-by for possible deployment to Europe amid Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine’s border.

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Russia remains open but ‘not optimistic’ over Ukraine talks

Moscow unhappy with rejection of demand for veto over Ukraine’s potential Nato membership

Russia has said it is willing to continue talks with the US over European security, but is not optimistic about their prospects after Washington and Nato allies again rejected a key part of the Kremlin’s proposed new order for post-cold war security.

Tensions have soared in recent weeks as Russia massed more than 100,000 soldiers and heavy weapons at its border with Ukraine, raising fears of an invasion.

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Antony Blinken says US will ‘uphold principle of Nato’s open door’ for Ukraine – video

US secretary of state Antony Blinken has said 'there will be no change 'to Washington’s support for Ukraine’s right to pursue Nato membership, the most contentious issue in relations with Moscow.

The US has presented its written response to Russian demands on Ukraine, offering to negotiate with Russia over some aspects of European security, but not the issue of eventual Ukrainian membership to the Nato alliance.

Blinken was speaking hours after his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, threatened 'retaliatory measures' if the US response did not satisfy the Kremlin

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Ukraine: Biden warns Putin of personal sanctions if Russia invades – video

Speaking to reporters in Washington, Joe Biden said he would consider personal sanctions against Vladimir Putin if Russia invaded Ukraine, citing 'severe consequences'. The threat of sanctions came as the US helped prepare for the diversion of natural gas supplies from around the world to Europe in the event that the flow from Russia is cut

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Why are Germany and France at odds with the Anglosphere over how to handle Russia?

Analysis: Differing views over Russia within Nato alliance resurface in Ukraine crisis

Can the western alliance against Russia over its buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border hold together? It is a question that politicians and diplomats are increasingly grappling with amid fears that Germany and, to a lesser extent, France are in danger of dividing from the US and the UK, not only over how to respond to any future Russian act of aggression in Ukraine, but also in their assessment of the imminence of the threat.

Every effort is being made to minimise the differences within the Nato alliance, including through regular calls such as the one led by Joe Biden on Monday, but they may be impossible to avoid since they reflect not just different short-term assessments on intelligence, but a deep fissure going back decades about what Germany and France, as opposed to the Anglosphere, regard as the best way to handle Russia.

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Ukraine: US puts 8,500 troops on alert to deploy to bolster Nato – video

The US military has put up to 8,500 troops on alert to be ready to deploy to Europe, potentially at very short notice, should the Nato alliance activate a rapid response force. It's the latest sign of US resolve in the face of a Russian military buildup near Ukraine. The Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stressed that no decision had been made on whether to deploy the troops, and that any such deployment would separate from intra-European movements of US troops to Nato's eastern flank, to reassure nervous allies. The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, told US citizens in Ukraine that ‘now is the time to leave’

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Rising costs of Ukraine gamble could force Russia’s hand

Analysis: Putin can still turn back but it looks less likely as economic and political consequences mount

Russia’s aggressive buildup near Ukraine energised Nato into sending more forces to eastern Europe on Monday and led to a plunge on Russian markets, raising the stakes on the Kremlin’s bet that it could cajole, extort or force Ukraine into submission.

For Moscow it has become more difficult to pull back from its aggressive stance after US and Nato announcements that more troops would be deployed to the military alliance’s eastern flank. A unilateral drawdown now would leave the Kremlin a clear loser in the standoff, having provoked a strengthening of the very Nato presence that it had sought to banish from eastern Europe.

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Nato reinforces eastern borders as Ukraine tensions mount

Stoltenberg says ‘deteriorating security situation’ has led Nato allies to ready frigates, fighter jets and troops for ‘collective defence’

Nato is reinforcing its eastern borders with land, sea and air forces, the military alliance’s secretary general has said, as a Russian invasion of Ukraine appeared increasingly likely.

Jens Stoltenberg said the “deteriorating security situation” had led Nato allies to ready frigates, fighter jets and troops for their “collective defence”.

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Ukraine taking UK claim of Russian invasion plot seriously, says adviser

Warning greeted with shock and some scepticism in Kyiv but aide says it fits ‘logical chain’

Ukraine is reacting “seriously” to UK Foreign Office allegations that Moscow has plans to invade the country and install a puppet government, a senior government adviser has said, adding that Kyiv is resisting Russian efforts to destabilise its government and economy.

The extraordinary Foreign Office claims that Moscow may topple the government and install Yevhen Murayev, a former MP who controls a pro-Russia television station, were met with shock and some scepticism in Ukrainian political and media circles on Sunday.

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‘We are ready for whatever comes’: on the Ukraine frontline

In Chonhar a blue and yellow flag marks the de facto border as Russian forces amass across a shimmering expanse of water

Peering through binoculars, Mykola Chekman pointed to the bridge connecting Ukraine to Russian-controlled Crimea. “It’s not the first time the peninsula has been occupied,” he observed. He added: “Crimea has seen a lot of war.”

Chekman – a Ukrainian army photographer – was standing on the castellated tower of what was once a tourist cafe. It is now a base for Ukrainian forces, facing off against their invisible Russian counterparts across a shimmering expanse of water and duck-filled lagoons.

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Ukraine: US offers Putin summit with Biden in effort to stop slide to war

Move comes amid ‘frank and substantive’ talks in Geneva and announcement by Russia of new military exercises

The US has offered to hold a summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin as a last-ditch effort to stop the slide to a new war in Europe, as Russia continued to build up its forces along the Ukraine border and announced new naval exercises in the Black Sea.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said Washington and its allies were also ready to respond in writing next week to Russian demands on the future of Nato and European security, which Moscow has said must be addressed to avoid it taking “military measures”. But, speaking in Geneva where he held talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Blinken repeated the US and Nato position there could still be no compromise on the central issue of the right of Ukraine and other countries to join Nato in the future.

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Biden lays bare Nato divide over Russian aggression against Ukraine

Analysis: Greatest tension is between US and Germany over arms sale and energy dependency

Joe Biden confirmed at his press conference on Wednesday what has been apparent for weeks – Nato remains divided over how to respond to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

His admission of a split was overshadowed by his passing remark that a minor incursion would be treated differently to a full-scale invasion. The White House afterwards clarified that a minor incursion meant cyber-attacks, as opposed to a movement of Russian troops into Ukraine sovereign territory.

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US and Russia to hold talks on Ukraine in potential sign ‘diplomacy is not dead’

US secretary of state Tony Blinken to meet with foreign minister Sergei Lavrov amid fears of Russian attack on Ukraine

The US and Russian foreign ministers will hold talks in Geneva on Friday in a development that a US official said suggested that “perhaps diplomacy is not dead” in the efforts to fend off a new Russian attack on Ukraine.

With the White House warning that such an attack could come “at any time”, the US secretary of state, Tony Blinken, will fly to Kyiv on Wednesday and Berlin on Thursday to consult with the Ukrainian government and European allies before the meeting the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov. It comes as Nato also offered Russia a fresh round of talks.

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Russia moves troops to Belarus for joint exercises near Ukraine border

Move likely to stoke invasion fears as war games also planned near borders of Nato members Poland and Lithuania

Russia has begun moving troops to Ukraine’s northern neighbour Belarus for joint military exercises, in a move likely to increase fears in the west that Moscow is preparing for an invasion.

The joint military exercises, named United Resolve, are to take place as Russia also musters forces along Ukraine’s eastern border, threatening a potential invasion that could unleash the largest conflict in Europe for decades.

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What have Ukraine talks achieved, and is war now more likely?

Russia calls talks a ‘dead end’ and it becomes clear that troop build-up is not a bluff to achieve other ends

The Guardian’s world affairs editor assesses the outcome of three rounds of talks this week about the fate of Ukraine, involving Russia, the US, Nato and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Did the talks achieve anything?

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